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Monday, July 29, 2013

A negative start to the week as the Dow fell 36 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Todays action should turn the summation index lower.  Now is this the beginning of the decline that I've been looking for?  It could be but I am not completely sure.  I'd really like to see one final move up past 1700 on the S&P 500 to buy some September OEX puts.  That could simply be wishful thinking on my part.  I do think that the upside is limited from here though.  The technicals for the stock indices are rolling over and the TRAN has already broken down somewhat.  Plenty of Fed, ECB and economic data this week.  GE was off 1/8 or so on very light volume.  No trades in mind here for now.  Gold was up a bit on the futures as was the US dollar.  The XAU fell 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  Gold and the gold shares are waiting on the Fed and the reports as well.  Overbought on the short term for the gold shares here still.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'd expect Tuesday to be more of the same waiting game.  Wednesday is the close of the month of July as well.  Obviously the market could go either way here.  I'm still trying to remain patient but I do feel that once the decline begins in earnest, it will be one worth being short for.  Gold has had a nice move higher off of the recent lows.  It is now hovering at the 50 day moving average.  If we can break above that level it would spell good news for my October ABX calls.  ABX is due out with its earnings report on Thursday.  I can't see anything good coming from that but perhaps all the bad news is already baked into the stock.  The overall outlook for gold after this weeks data and announcements will be more important.  If the market behaves as I'd like it, I'll sell the October ABX calls within the next couple of weeks and concentrate on the September OEX puts.  The market rarely goes where you'd like.  It's a waiting game for another day.     

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