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Thursday, July 11, 2013

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This site has not worked properly all week.  The blog must go on though.  The Dow had a huge rally today as it gained 169 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 7 to 1 positive.  My idea to purchase the July OEX puts has obviously been wrong.  The market remains overbought and staying there.  The summation index continues higher.  The small stocks have led the way here and thankfully I was keeping an eye on that.  So why not try the calls instead over the past week?  The volume has been light.  Today it picked up a bit at least.  Perhaps we simply continue to rally.  We are at new closing highs for some of the major indices now and there is no overhead resistance.  You could make a case that we broke out from the multi-year resistance, fell back to it with the recent decline and are now off to much higher prices.  I did put in another open order for the OEX July puts though.  GE was up 3/8 on OK volume.  We have earnings to deal with in a week here.  I'm not sure that I will attempt a trade for GE.  Gold rallied as the US dollar took another spill today.  The precious metal futures were up $32.  The XAU finally followed along and gained 6 points.  ABX rose 1 1/4,  GG gained 2 and NEM added 1 1/2.  The volume continues above average here.  My October ABX calls are now in the black.  Could this be the start of some klind of sustained rally in gold and the gold shares?  Hasn't happened yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Perhaps I will simply cancel the OEX July put order tonight.  The technicals are overbought and it doesn't mean anything yet.  Perhaps the best course of action here would be to wait for the August cycle.  Maybe the sidelines are the place to be before the July expiration.  There are always many questions in the game.  Gold and the gold shares are having a good week so far but they remain mired in a steep downtrend.  A bounce is underway but how long it lasts is the question.  GG is by far the out performer among the gold shares right now.  That is probably where I should have tried the calls.  It is always easy to second guess your trades.  Much more difficult to get them right to begin with.  I'll be checking the charts tonight to see if I'd like to continue searching for an entry point for a July OEX put trade.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the lead of the US stock indexes overnight.

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