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Friday, May 31, 2013

An interesting end to the month of May as the Dow fell 209 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative.  Still oversold and even more so.  The summation index continues lower and we will take our cues from there.  I'd expect a bounce on Monday but the breadth of the market has changed.  Momentum moves never end well and I think we are seeing that now or will see that here in the near future.  There is no sense of a trend change and the complacency is still obvious.  I'm considering the OEX puts ahead of next weeks employment report.  GE was off 1/4 on average volume.  Nothing doing there.  Gold fell today as well.  The futures were off around $20 and more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar bounced back a bit today.  The XAU fell 2 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with fractional moves one way or the other on good volume.  Considering the drop in gold, the gold shares performed quite well.  That is bullish for the gold shares moving forward.  June is historically a poor month for the price of gold though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices are very oversold after todays price action and a bounce to the upside will be expected on Monday.  I am not exactly sure what is happening here but perhaps the market is beginning to factor in the end of easy money.  It won't be pretty if that is the case.  The end of easy money will occur at some point though.  We'll stick with the technicals and they are oversold short and medium term for stocks.  The price action after a bounce will tell us a lot about where we're headed.  Gold fell back today and we could be headed to more sideways action here.  That's a guess as usual.  As long as the crash lows hold, I'm still constructive moving forward for gold and the gold shares.  My October ABX calls are still in the black.  The month ended up pretty good for ABX and that was what I was looking for.  However the markets will go where they want.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.  

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