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Thursday, May 23, 2013

Another down day but we finished well off of the lows.  The Dow fell 12 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Working off the extreme overbought condition here.  So far this still looks like just a blip in the momentum rally.  The summation index has turned lower though.  No trend lines have been violated to the downside yet on the stock indices.  So we will have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls for now.  I expect a slow pre-holiday Friday session tomorrow.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was good.  We've fallen back after making new yearly highs.  That isn't really a bullish scenario.  A better picture would have been even higher prices.  I'll keep an eye on it because GE sometimes gives clues to the overall market direction.  Gold rallied back up today, gaining almost $25 on the futures.  The US dollar had a very weak day for a change.  The XAU didn't follow gold today and only managed a 1/2 point gain.  That isn't bullish for the gold shares going forward.  ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional gains on light volume.  We could be in for a sideways malaise for the gold shares if this keeps up.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Volatility has somewhat returned to the stock indexes with the anticipation of easy money from the Fed coming to an end.  It hasn't stopped the money flow yet but eventually the manipulation of interest rates will be coming to an end.  This week is the first taste of what will happen when it does.  We also should not forget this is a momentum driven rally in stocks which never ends pretty.  So we will keep a close eye to the ongoing developments as usual.  Gold has held up well this week but the gold shares are lagging once again.  Could be a long summer for my ABX October call trade if that keeps up.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and then close out the week tomorrow. 

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