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Thursday, May 16, 2013

We hit new highs today and then sold off as the Dow fell 42 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  About as overbought as you can get when we started the trading session, so some of that has been relieved with todays action.  But we're still short and medium term overbought.  Todays inflation data was benign and the economic numbers were a bit weaker than expected.  It has been quite a momentum rally and one down day doesn't change that.  But this can't go on forever and we are in the seasonal period of weakness for stocks.  Momentum moves can go on longer than you think but in my opinion the upside is limited from here in the near term.  I could be wrong.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was light.  No trades here for now.  Gold continues to weaken, losing another 10 bucks on the futures.  The US dollar bounced around but finished the day basically unchanged.  The XAU was up 1/3 as the gold shares are now outperforming the metal itself.  That is bullish for them going forward.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on good volume.  We'll see how the week closes out for these issues.  My October ABX calls continue to lose ground but are still slightly in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Expiration Friday coming up.  It's been a positive week so far.  Nothing has changed for the stock indices.  The summation index continues higher.  However I do think a pause is about to be upon us.  Whether it develops into an actual decline remains to be seen.  Whether it even occurs also remains to be seen at this point.  Gold has resumed its decline to test the crash lows.  I'm of the belief that the lows will hold.  Time will tell on that.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow. 

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