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Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Bouncing around today but the moving higher theme remains intact.  The Dow gained 60 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The momentum remains but it looks like it may be getting weaker here.  Less advancing issues as we move higher now.  But that could change tomorrow.  Still short and medium term overbought.  We've been in that condition for a long time.  It won't last forever.  The economic data today showed no inflation and slightly less economic data measurement than expected.  All news is being construed as bullish for stocks.  Only two days left for the May option cycle.  No OEX trades in mind here as of yet.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  Finally made it past the 50 day moving average.  The next upside target is around $23.75.  Gold headed lower today on the stronger US dollar.  The precious metal futures dropped $28 during the session and more in the aftermarket.  The retest of the crash lows is the current price scenario.  The XAU fell 4 1/4.  ABX and NEM dropped a buck, while GG lost 1 1/2.  Volume increased to the downside for the gold shares.  My ABX October calls are now just slightly in the black.  I'm still a believer in this trade going further out in time.  However if the crash lows in gold don't hold, this trade will be a loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still up, up and away for the stock indexes.  The summation index continues higher.  There is no overhead resistance for the stock indices.  These conditions persist and until they change you cannot fight the tape.  Gold is back to the downside in a big way this week.  We will need to see 1350 or so hold this decline or gold will be heading lower.  The way the US dollar is acting here is implying that the crash lows won't hold.  But again, that could all change when we reach those levels.  As always, the markets will go where they want.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and take it from there.

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