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Friday, May 17, 2013

It's like a runaway train as the Dow continues to climb.  The most watched index gained 121 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  No overhead resistance for the stock indices.  I keep thinking that a pause is in order due to the extreme overbought condition and that just isn't happening.  It's been quite a bull market run so far this year.  Money continues to flow into stocks.  It is a massive momentum driven run.  Who knows how high it will go?  I'm done guessing.  When I see some kind of top in place, I'll look to play the OEX puts.  Nothing looks like a top yet.  GE was up almost 1/4 on good volume.  Overbought here as well but that doesn't seem to mean anything.  No trades in mind here.  Gold took a hit thanks to the much stronger US dollar today.  The gold futures lost over 20 bucks and more in the aftermarket.  The XAU fell 3 1/3.  ABX down 2/3, GG dropped a buck and NEM shed 3/4.  Volume was good.  We are at the retest of the crash lows for gold and I am assuming that they will hold.  Todays price action looks like they won't.  Next week will be very important for gold.  My October ABX calls are now in the red.  Obviously I should have sold them at a profit on the first snap back and then bought them back here.  But I decided to just keep them.  Everything is in rally mode with the exception of the gold shares.  Another key factor here in my mind is how ABX closes out the month of May.  That close has longer term implications for the direction of ABX.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There isn't much more I can say about the stock indexes that I haven't already said.  Overbought on every time frame and it doesn't seem to matter.  The runaway train analogy is appropriate because when the train goes off the tracks, it isn't going to be pretty.  But who knows when that happens?  The sell in May and go away theory isn't holding up so far this year.  How much longer can the rally in stocks go on?  Of course I'm sitting here with a losing position in the ABX calls.  My trading confidence isn't what it used to be and I have been in a trading slump for months.  Money is continuing to come out of gold as the US dollar looks like it is breaking out to fresh multi-week highs.  As I said before, this will be an important week for the price of gold.  It needs to hold the crash lows or it will be heading to $1300 or lower.  I'm not sure what will happen.  There was a time when a stronger US dollar led to weaker stock prices.  I suppose during a rip roaring bull run, it doesn't really matter.  Enjoy the ride.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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