Still settling things out for the day as the Dow lost around 135 points. Advance/declines are over 2 to 1 negative and the volume looks light but it isn't final as of yet. We were off over 200 at one point and made a comeback. I'm leaving in an open order again for some OEX puts but I'm not completely sold on the idea. We held near term support today and are medium term oversold in my opinion. I don't see any big decline until the oversold condition is worked off. That could happen in the next few days, so I'll keep an eye on it. Summation index will be pointing down, telling me puts are the way to go here. The ideal scenario is strength into Wednesday and take it from there. Gold gained 5 bucks while the XAU was basically flat. The XAU was higher earlier but sold off with the market. ABX was flat. GG and NEM posted small gains. Volume in the gold shares was light. I'm staying away from there for the time being. GE lost 1/3 on good volume. Oversold here as well, both daily and weekly. You'd expect GE to start heading up, considering the technical condition. But it isn't happening. Could that be the harbinger of things to come in the overall market? I certainly don't know. Mentally I feel fine, slept well. As much as I'd like to get some OEX puts here, I am going to wait and see if we get a couple of up days this week. The employment report on Friday will most likely be the big mover, one way or the other. If we get a light volume rally from here, I would feel better about getting the puts. However the market, as always, will do what it wants.

It seems like summertime already as the Dow lost 8 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We went nowhere really all day and then sold off in the last 5 minutes. These type of days are not good for option trading. I canceled my open order for the OEX puts and will try again next week. Perhaps getting them on Monday if we see any strength. I did notice a lot more premium in the puts than the calls, which leads me to believe that the puts are the way to go here. 3 weeks on the June option cycle left. We'll see. Gold bounced back about 10 bucks and the XAU gained 4 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher but the volume was light. I'm still thinking sideways there for now but I certainly don't know. Could follow oil if it heads lower like we saw in the past week. I'm just guessing there. As usual it will help to follow the dollar. GE was up a touch on good volume. Again the volume in GE has picked up but I can't tell if it's accumulation or distribution. It is oversold on a weekly basis. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. We've had an up week on light volume. We also did not see any follow through to a very bad previous week. I am pretty sure that there will be some downside next week. It's a matter of proper positioning beforehand. We should see some positive money flows early in the week. The employment report is out on Friday. I'm going to check the charts over the weekend and try and come up with some type of viable game plan. For now it's time for a break. Relax and forget about the markets for a couple of days.

3 days in a row to the upside as the Dow gained 51 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume looks to be average. We were up well over 100 at one point. I still have an open order for some OEX puts. Perhaps today was the day to purchase them. If we hold up here I will probably get some tomorrow or Monday. However it's possible that the snap back is over. I don't know, we will just have to see what the market does from here. Gold lost $23 bucks today as the dollar was higher and oil got clobbered. The XAU erased yesterdays reversal and lost 7 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all lower by a buck and change on average volume. We haven't taken out the recent lows in gold yet but it appears to be on the way. It's possible that support will be stronger here for the dollar as interest rates continue to rise. As money leaves the bond market it is finding a home in the stock market and that could undermine the OEX put trade. We'll see. GE was up a touch on heavy volume again. I can't make out what's going on there really. Oversold, staying there and no trend. Not planning anything with that issue at the moment. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep all that well. End of the month tomorrow so it's anybodies guess what happens there. We should see a bit of support with beginning of the month money flows next week. Perhaps I'll wait for that to get the OEX puts. Or perhaps not. The summation index should be back to positive after today but we'll see. It's been a lighter volume rally so far and that what I was looking for. How long it goes on is the key. Can we squeeze a couple more days out of it? Stay tuned.

The Dow gained 45 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We opened higher, went lower and closed back up again. After such a negative week last week, we are not seeing any follow through to the downside. We've had opportunities for that but it hasn't occurred. Perhaps we are making our way back to the violated up trend line. Or maybe that's it for the decline and we will power higher. I do think we need some move positive action short term according to my work. I still have an open order for some OEX puts though. I'll cancel it if we get some volume to the upside. Gold lost another $7 today but the XAU was up almost 2 points. It opened lower and closed higher. ABX, GG and NEM were all fractionally higher on average volume. It was a one day reversal to the upside there. I can't get too excited about it though. I think we might go sideways there but that's a guess. Oil was back up today and I think gold followed. GE was up a touch on heavy volume. There has been a lot of volume in GE lately. I'd like to say that I know what that means but I don't. Mentally I'm doing OK. Trying to figure out the next move here. Medium term is looking more like a buy signal than a sell. Summation index is heading down. I do think we need to see more upside near term though. So it's a bit confusing and kind of mixed at the moment. I'm still looking short side but that could be wrong. GDP revision tomorrow and some oil inventory numbers, so we'll see what happens.

A holiday shortened week begins with the Dow gaining 69 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. Oversold and definitely due for a bounce and we got it. I did have a thought of getting some OEX calls that expire this week but didn't. Haven't tried them yet but today may have been the time to take a chance. Obviously not a longer term proposition. I'm still leaning to the short side and have an open order in for some OEX puts. Need to be careful here though as the snap back could go farther and last longer then expected. We'll see. Gold lost $20 today as the dollar was higher and oil weaker. The XAU dropped 5 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all down at least a buck with GG off almost 2. Volume was light though. The weekly XAU chart looks ominous as it is, so I'm not looking to trade gold here. Unless a decent signal appears of course. GE was only off a few cents on heavy volume again. The volume has picked up in GE to the downside lately and that is not a good sign in my opinion. But who knows? I've been wrong before. Mentally I'm feeling good after a 3 day break. It's always good to step back from the game once in a while. My thinking is that we will see some positive market action this week based just on the technicals. I'm guessing it's a set up to buy some puts for later on in the June option cycle for those who haven't gotten them yet such as myself. It could just be a 2 day bounce or perhaps stretch out for the whole week. As long as the volume remains light to the upside, shorting things here appears to me to be the way to go. Timing as always is crucial. I do think we have more to go on the downside and am looking to trade accordingly. For now we'll see how far the snap back goes and take it from there. I don't think this is the beginning of a new rally. But the market will do what it does. I'll try to listen.

Nothing but downside as the Dow tacks on another loss. 146 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative. We are way oversold at this point. Summation index clearly to the downside. When will we see a bounce? I think everyone is looking to get short by now. Perhaps it is just another missed opportunity but I am holding out hope that we get some upside to get short. There really aren't any buyers out there right now though. A long weekend to ponder things. Gold rose over $7 today while the XAU lost 1 1/4. ABX and NEM were losers. GG posted a slight gain. Volume was light all the way around. Do I want to try some gold share calls here again? Maybe but it's looking the same as the OEX puts as far as the timing is concerned. GE lost another 1/2 on good volume again. So perhaps GE is showing the way. Does it mean the overall market will break down past the March lows as well? We'll see. Mentally I'm doing as well as can be expected considering. First a terrible trade in ABX and then missing out on this weeks decline. I'm still liking the bounce and get short game plan but who knows? There hasn't been a bounce. You really have to be mentally tough just to survive in the game. It isn't easy but you've got to keep going forward. I'll check things over the weekend but I already know where things stand. The thing is, you don't want to get short too quickly either. That said, when we do get the expected bounce, I'll probably take the chance. A long weekend ahead which is a welcome break in the action. I'll try and forget about thing for a while and get back at it on Tuesday.

A weak attempt a a bounce today as the Dow gained 24 points. Advance/declines were slightly positive and the volume was lighter. It's hard to be patient here but that's what's required at this point I believe. I wouldn't expect much tomorrow with a long weekend ahead but you never know. If I get the chance, I'll get some OEX puts next week. The summation index is pointing down. I do believe that we are headed lower even with the sell-off that's already occurred. The premiums on the puts are high and that tells me that they are going to work. Gold lost $10 today and the XAU fell 2 points. ABX , GG and NEM were all lower on lighter volume. ABX is showing relative strength now. We're overbought here now. Plus I'm still kicking myself for the last ABX trade that blew-up in my face. No one to blame but me there. GE was flat on good volume. It's oversold but shows no signs of a rally yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept pretty good. Needless to say, you've really got to be on your toes in the game. One day off, one hour off on the timing and it's hard to recover. Gotta be nimble, gotta be quick. You need to pay attention and do the work every day. I hate missing moves and that has happened again here with the OEX. I still think I can salvage something though. It won't be easy. Pre-holiday Friday coming up and we'll take it from there.

Another downer on Wall Street today as the Dow lost 227 points. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative and the volume was heavy. We're down over 500 points from the high on Monday. That's quite a move. Of course the OEX puts would have worked but not to worry, they still will. The summation index should roll over today. We will be short term oversold by tomorrow and there will be a bounce shortly. I'll look to buy some puts on the bounce. I think it will work but we'll see. Gold continued higher as the dollar has started to fall again. It was up 8 bucks and continues higher in the aftermarket. The XAU lost over 2 points though. ABX was up a touch, while GG and NEM were off fractionally. Volume was pretty good. Perhaps the XAU needs to take a rest here. GE was down another 3/4 on heavy volume. It has broken down through support. I think it's leading the market here and telling us that the downside is for real. Mentally I'm doing OK. Trying not to kick myself too hard for not getting short on Monday but I still think there's time for a downside trade to work. Most likely waiting for sometime next week would be prudent. I do have a target in mind for the OEX and it is quite lower from here. So we'll see. There is a lot of talk about oil lately as it rallies to new all-time highs. Any decline in the price of oil should send the Dow higher, at least on a short term basis. I'll be looking out for that if it occurs also.

The expected weakness materialized as the Dow lost 199 points. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative and the volume looks a little light. Is it the beginning of something big? Doesn't look like it as the overall market did not match the decline in the Dow. The summation index might start to turn here though. It bears watching. Plenty of time in the June options cycle. I did put in an overnight order for some OEX puts but we were weak from the start and it wasn't filled. Gold had another good day, up around $15. The XAU rose 4 3/4 as the dollar was weaker. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher on OK volume. GG was up the most. It looks like the June calls for the gold shares is the correct trade here. I missed it. Might be able to try again if we get a pullback. GE lost 70 cents on heavy volume. Perhaps GE is sending a message for the overall market. It looks as though it is breaking down here. Really needs to hold 31.50. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Slept well enough. At this point I'm thinking that this is the first wave down. We should see the market try and come back from here. As it comes back it will possibly give me a chance to pick up the OEX puts again. That is the scenario I'm looking at now. The market will go where it wants. It's possible that this decline will fail to really take hold and we will rally to new highs from the March lows. However, I am going to look for more of a decline. Patience will be required for now and we'll go from there.

An interesting Monday as the Dow was up over 150 points and closed with a gain of 41 points. Volume was light and the advance/declines were negative. The NASDAQ opened higher and closed lower. It's time to buy the OEX puts in my opinion. There is a chance that today will be a downside fake-out but my work indicates that there will be some decent downside on a closing basis at some point this week. I'll be looking to get short any strength tomorrow. We do have inflation data coming out. Gold was up $5 today and the XAU gained a point. ABX gained 3/4 while GG and NEM were basically flat. The volume was light. The dollar was higher today and gold still managed a gain. I'm not looking to try anything with the gold shares at the moment but that could change. GE was up 1/4 on good volume. Hard to tell what that means. Mentally I'm feeling fine, slept well. It is very early in a long, June options cycle. Premiums are high but there is still money to be made. The market has been very resilient lately. We are at or above the important 200 day moving averages for quite a few indices. It is risky to try the OEX puts here but I do think it's worth it. Todays sell-off lets you know that others have the same feeling perhaps. The summation index is still going higher, that's something that could change but it hasn't yet. We are overbought but could stay that way. So it's a tough call. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Option expiration Friday and the Dow lost 5 points. We were lower early and came all the way back. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. It is a market that does not want to go down as we grind our way higher. We are hovering around the 200 day moving average for many of the indices. I still want to short things but the market has to set up right for it if I'm going to take the risk. Perhaps next week. Gold soared $20 today and the XAU rose 5 1/2 points. NEM led the way, up 2 bucks with ABX and GG up around a dollar. The volume increased. Now who would have thought ABX would be up about 10% in 2 days after I dumped the calls? Frustrating is what it is. The loss could have been cut substantially if I had waited. But the reality is that I never should have been in such a position. I find it interesting that NEM is leading the way here. The dollar was weaker and oil was higher. Perhaps the June gold share call options will work here. GE lost about 20 cents on good volume. Looking at GE longer term, it looks like it is about to break down here on the weekly chart. Perhaps a precursor for the market? That's a guess. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. Trying not to do anything stupid here but you never know. The market just seems as though it wants to go higher. If we break out above the 200 day moving average with volume, it should be quite a rise. That hasn't happened yet. Summation index continues higher and there are no divergences at the moment. I will try to not be too stubborn and listen to the market. That said, I could see a sell as early as Tuesday. We'll see. It's time for the weekend and a check of the charts. You've gotta keep moving on in the game.

Another good day in the markets as the Dow rose 94 points. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive and the volume looks OK. The trend is up and we continue higher. Not the environment to be buying puts. If we continue upwards we'll be overbought next week. May try some OEX puts then but if the volume picks up to the upside it's a no go. The overall market continues strong as that's where the money flow is. Summation index higher. Gold had a good day as well, up around $15. The XAU rose 6 3/4. ABX up 1 1/3, GG up $2 and NEM up over 1 1/2. The volume was a bit better today. Just an oversold bounce or the start of something bigger? Well, it's too late for me because I'm out of the ABX calls. The dollar didn't do much today either. GE lost a touch on better volume. That issue is going nowhere. However I do keep an eye on it because it does sometimes lead the market. Mentally I'm doing a well as can be expected. Trying to put the terrible ABX trade behind me. I do have a scenario to get short the market here if it plays out. But the rise in prices seems to have no end at the moment. It could be more than just expiration related. Time will tell on that. Otherwise I have nothing else in the pipeline. June options have an extra week in them, premiums are higher than the normal cycle. Let's close things out for the May option period tomorrow.

I'm here a bit early today as I finally bailed out of the ABX trade. It doesn't get any worse than that. It was a 90% loser and let me tell you. You should never have 90% losers. There wasn't a lot of money involved and I'm thinking that could be part of the reason I let it go for so long. But that's really not an excuse because there are no excuses. Discipline was completely lacking here. But we're all human. Had a couple of chances to escape this madness but chose to stay until the bitter end. The buy signal there did work for a short time but the dynamics of of this market have changed. Money is flowing out of gold and the buy signals don't work like they used to. But that doesn't change the fact that this was the worst managed trade of the year so far. The one day reversal on Friday was the key and I saw it but didn't heed it. The blame lies with me. The trouble is that trades like this erode your confidence going forward. And you have to have that confidence to be successful. So it's back to the drawing board. You've just got to admit your mistakes and move on. It's easy to say but hard to do. The Dow gained 66 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were up over 150 at one point but sold off in the last couple of hours. The trend still seems to be higher. It is expiration week so some volatility is to be expected. Summation index still moving higher. I do think there will be some type of sell-off in the June option cycle but the timing will be key. Gold lost 3 bucks today and the XAU shed over 3 points. ABX and GG were down while NEM was flat. Volume was light. Interest here has waned. The dollar was up a touch. The inflation data was lower than expected. I guess I'm done with gold now for a while but that could change. The weekly ABX chart is blown out to the downside but we really aren't getting any bounce. At some point, that will change. GE was up fractionally on light volume. That stock is going nowhere. Mentally I'm doing as well as can be expected with a blowout losing trade. Slept OK. 2 days left on the May cycle, so I won't be doing anything stupid here I think. It's time to regroup and get ready for the next trade. Most likely in the OEX but we'll see.

The Dow lost 44 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ higher on the day. The market seems as though it wants to move higher here. It is expiration week. No OEX trades for now. Gold got clocked today as it lost $15. However the XAU was only off 1/4. ABX, NEM and GG all had only fractional losses on light volume. Interesting as it really didn't make sense. My ABX calls are still dead, will cut the loss at some point before Friday. Again, a terrible trade. GE was flat on light volume. Option writers there are rejoicing. Mentally I feel OK, still a bit tired. Not much to say here really. A looming ABX loser on the horizon and after that, who knows? Inflation data tomorrow. The retail sales news from today was a bit weak but the dollar rallied anyway and bonds sold off. Not the expected reaction. As for the gold shares not selling off in the wake of a $15 loss in gold, can't figure that one out either. Perhaps it means a pop in gold tomorrow but that's just a guess. I'll be watching things overnight and take it from there.

A light volume Monday rally today as the Dow gained 130 points. Advance/declines were pretty good, over 2 to 1 positive. I'd still like to be a believer of the June OEX puts here but the summation index should continue higher with todays action. As for the OEX, I am probably going to let option expiration week pass and get short next week. But that could change. I'll have to see how the week plays out. Gold didn't do much today, the XAU lost 2/3. ABX and NEM were weaker, while GG was flat. ABX led the way down by 3/4 on light volume and my ABX calls are in the red. This trade is a loser and isn't coming back in all likely hood. It's a cut the loss mode at this point. The poorest trade of the year regardless how it turns out. The dollar opened higher and closed lower but both gold and oil couldn't rally off of that. Retail sales tomorrow, we'll see what that does. GE was up a bit on light volume. As usual not much going on there. Mentally I'm tired. Did not sleep well and the mental energy lost in this poor ABX trade takes a toll. What bothers me is that I had a couple of chances to get out with a small gain and didn't take them. Why? I don't know. You've got to perform properly given the conditions. If you can't do that, you haven't got a chance no matter how much work you do when the market is closed. So we'll see what happens overnight and go from there.

It was another downer on Wall Street today as the Dow lost 121 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 100 market would indicate. Poor earnings from AIG and higher oil prices are the excuses. We have worked off the overbought condition. I'm thinking that we will get some type of rally attempt next week. I think the tone of the market is changing here and I am going to look to get short on strength. The summation index is starting to roll over. The ideal scenario would be a light volume rally. We'll see. Gold was up another 3 bucks today but the XAU lost 2 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM were all lower and all had one day reversals to the downside. They each opened higher and closed lower with ABX getting the worst of it. The ABX calls I have are back under water. This has been an incredibly poorly managed trade. Why I continue to stay in it with only a week left is beyond me. I should have gotten out of it at least 2 times already without a loss. My brain must be asleep. But it isn't looking like it will come back at this point. The weekly technicals are oversold and staying there. It also is the weakest of the group right now. Perhaps my mind will get back to reality next week. I certainly hope so. GE lost 1/3 on average volume. Nothing doing there. Mentally I feel OK, slept well. I think the market is perhaps going to roll over here. It already has to some extent but the bullish sentiment remains. I'll be looking for some type of rally and then hopefully step up and get some June OEX puts. The ABX trade needs to end so I can focus on something else. If it's a loser, so be it and move on. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. The weekend will be a chance to check things over and get ready for Monday morning. We'll see what happens.

We bounced back a bit today as the Dow gained 52 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume looks a little lighter. We really just bounced around today. Considering yesterdays action, it wasn't too bad. I have no OEX trades in the pipeline at the moment. No clear signal but I'm leaning towards getting some June puts. We'll see. Gold had a good day, up $10 and the XAU soared 7 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM were all up over a buck with GG adding 2 1/2. Volume was good on ABX and GG. GG continues to show relative strength. The ABX calls I own are back to showing a slight gain. I really should have just gotten out today but the technicals have room to go on the upside in ABX. However there are only 6 days left. Decisions, decisions. GE was flat on light volume. The option writers there are making money. Mentally I feel OK, slept well enough. I have noticed that money has come back into the gold shares, for whatever reasons. I don't know how long that will last. My hope is that they will run them up into the expiration. But things can turn on a dime. This ABX trade has not turned out the way I thought it would. ABX is lagging the other gold shares. While keeping an eye on ABX, it is perhaps taking my focus away from better opportunities. Or not. I'll have to think about it this evening and come up with some type of plan for the rest of this trade.

It was a down day for the Dow as we lost 206 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. Nobody was in a buying mood today as higher oil was deemed the catalyst for the decline. Will it turn the summation index around? Stay tuned. We were overbought and perhaps a short term top is in place. Or it could be that the rally is over and we head lower from here. We'll have to see what happens. Gold lost $6 today and the XAU fell 2 1/2 points. It wasn't too bad as the dollar had a pretty good day. ABX and NEM were lower, heavy volume in ABX. GG bucked the trend and was up on the day. I still have the ABX calls but they're losers. Will have to go into cut the loss mode unless the ECB meeting sends the dollar back down. GE lost 40 cents on average volume. Not much going on there as has been the case lately. Mentally I feel OK, slept well. Now where do we go from here? Was today just a one day sell-off? Have we begun the sell in May and go away syndrome? I don't have the answers yet. I also do not have an explanation for todays action. Perhaps we are setting up for an expiration week rally. But it would all be a guess at this point. There wasn't a clear technical signal for todays sell-off. At any rate, I've been keeping my eye on gold, with the ABX trade still in play. We held up quite well with the rise in the dollar today. Perhaps the major selling in the gold shares is behind us. Time will tell. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

It was a turnaround Tuesday as the Dow opened up lower by about 100 points and came all the way back to finish up 51. Advance/declines were positive and volume was average. Declines are being bought here for the moment. You cannot fight that because it's a losing battle. I don't have a decent signal one way or the other but I do know we are moving higher and the trend is up. Gold was up about $4 today. The XAU rose 2 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher but well off of their highs. ABX came out with good earnings and the stock only rose 1/2. I did have a chance to exit the ABX trade with a small profit and I really should have. The options are now at break even. The only reason I'm holding them is that the stochastic has turned up and is still oversold. Even with that I think I should have gotten out today. I suppose I'll wait for the ECB meeting on Thursday now but time is running out. GE lost 20 cents on average volume. Not much going on there and that's been the story with GE lately. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. Nothing doing at the moment with the OEX but that could change. I don't like being stuck in a nowhere trade, which is the case with ABX. The battle is always with oneself. You do the best you can and move on. That really is what I should do with this trade. If the earnings can't provide the energy to move higher, what will? A fall in the dollar would help but it's been much stronger relatively lately. So I'll just have to go on from here.

Settling things out as the Dow lost 88 points today. Volume was Monday light and the advance/declines were negative. All the indices were lower but not much as Yahoo really led the way down and set the tone. It doesn't feel like a huge decline is coming but who knows? OEX puts aren't doing much. My guess is that we hang around or drift lower before heading higher again. Subject to change as events unfold. Gold had a good day, up over $15. Oversold bounce? maybe. The dollar was a bit weaker and oil was higher too. The XAU rose 5 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher with ABX up over a buck. The ABX calls I own are back to break even. Earnings out tomorrow. I really should just get out tomorrow regardless but we are still oversold there even with todays movement. European Central bank meeting this week could support foreign currencies and send the dollar lower. But that's a guess and the meeting may not even mean anything. GG had good earnings today, opened much higher and never got back to the open price. So I'll see what happens when the ABX earnings come out and go from there. GE was off a touch on light volume. Mentally I feel pretty good, got a good nights sleep. 9 days left in the May option cycle. Not getting a clear buy or sell here for the OEX. Summation index continues higher. Unless I get something solid here it would make sense to lay low. I'll see how the week unfolds and take it from there. Gonna try and not force things but you never know. The focus is on ABX at the moment but that could change tomorrow if I dump the calls. So it's an early day tomorrow and we'll see what transpires.

Up over 100, then down 25 and finally back up 48 points on the day. Volume was lighter, the advance/declines were positive. The employment report wasn't as bad as expected. The trend remains up but I could make a case for a pullback early next week. I may try a trade there for the OEX puts. We'll see. Gold was up over $5 on the futures and the XAU rose 2 3/4 points. Nothing much really and we're oversold. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher with NEM leading the way. NEM leading the charge hasn't been conducive to higher prices lately. Volume was light. The dollar continued higher. The ABX calls I own are still in the red. ABX managed only 20 cents to the upside. Earnings on Tuesday. This trade still has the feel of a loser. Perhaps the earnings will save it but we are oversold and staying there. That's never a positive sign. GG earnings Monday. GE was up 20 cents on light volume. Not much going on there. Mentally I feel OK, slept well. The market seems to be projecting higher prices here. The sell-offs don't last. The summation index continues higher. The economic news that is released is viewed as positive regardless. It's hard to fight that and not worth it either. I'm going to have to remain patient and wait for a decent signal, if one appears at all. I'll be getting out of the ABX trade next week and go from there. The charts will be checked over the weekend and I'll see what I can find. It seems that the money flows have changed and that must be taken into consideration. It's not an easy game but one that changes. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Rally time as the Dow gained 190 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. It looks like we are breaking out to the upside from the longer term weekly down trend line. That could all change tomorrow with the employment report but I don't think it will. We'll see. I've waited quite a while to get to the longer term down trend line in hopes of buying the OEX puts. But the market has other ideas. Always listen to the market. Summation index continues higher. Gold lost $25 on the spot market and $12 or so on the futures. Depends on which gold quote you use. The dollar was much stronger today and money is now flowing out of commodities. Oil was weaker also. The XAU lost 5 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all lower on good volume. GG showed the better relative strength. The ABX calls I own are back in the red. Gold itself is at $850 and if it doesn't hold up here it will be going much lower. ABX earnings on Tuesday but even that may not be enough to save this trade. GE was up 40 cents on average volume. Mentally I feel pretty good, slept well. Employment report tomorrow. Perhaps if it's weaker than expected gold could get a pop but it seems as if the macro situation there has changed. Money moves around and it is moving out of gold at the moment. We may get an oversold bounce but we've been oversold and are staying there. That's never a good sign for the bullish case. Also we are seeing money coming out of bonds and into stocks as credit worries subside. As long as there are no surprises that probably will continue for a while. On to the employment report.

It was a one day reversal to the downside today as the Dow lost 12 points on good volume. We were up over 170 at one point after the Fed announcement. Advance/declines look slightly to the positive. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. I still don't think that this is the beginning of a big decline. I could be wrong. The Fed cut rates the expected 1/4. Perhaps it was profit taking, maybe end of the month nonsense or just relieving the overbought condition. You cannot deny the price action though. I can't see any big upside ahead of the employment report due on Friday. Gold didn't do much during the day but did rally a bit after the Fed. The XAU rose 5 points. ABX, GG and NEM all were higher on OK volume. The volume in ABX was very heavy as was the volume in the May 40 calls. Don't know what that means but ABX didn't move as high as GG and NEM. Perhaps end of the month settling. The ABX calls I have are now slightly in the black. I suppose I will wait for the earnings on Tuesday now. But we'll see. GE was down a touch on average volume. Sideways there lately. Mentally I feel OK, slept well enough. As always the question is where we go from here. Tomorrow should be a down day after the action of today. We aren't oversold here but could get there by Friday sometime. We are stalling where you would expect to on the indices. Is it a pause before we break out to the upside or is that it for the bulls? Answers to follow in the coming days.

A waiting game as the Dow lost 40 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. It's all up to the Fed now and whatever statement comes out tomorrow. There has been talk of no rate cut at all but I doubt that will happen. I can make a case for a fall here but I don't think it will last too long. But we'll see. GDP tomorrow also. We are still overbought. Gold got crushed today, down around 20 bucks and still selling off in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 7 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM all lost at least a dollar on good volume. My overnight order for ABX calls was filled. Of course I could have gotten a better price during the day but go figure. It's the kind of trade that is dead from the start it seems. Earnings in a week but it seems the macro story is bigger. The dollar is gaining strength and nobody wants gold anymore. That could change but it seems that money is moving out of gold. I'm going to sit tight until the earnings unless we just tank out from here. I am getting a buy signal for the gold shares here but it could take a while at this rate. GE lost 1/3 on average volume. Nothing doing there. Mentally I am OK, could have slept better. Computer problems early but it sorted itself out. My thoughts right now are that even if we get a sell-off tomorrow it won't last too long. My own technical work is telling me that. As always, I could be wrong. That is why I haven't purchased any OEX puts as of yet. The ABX trade isn't looking good today but that could change. It might be something that I exit if it gets back to even, regardless of the earnings. Trades are always in flux. It's not some long term, hold until expiration deal. That's for sure. Tomorrow should be interesting.

A fairly quiet Monday as the Dow lost 20 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was light. We were higher for a good portion of the day but turned around in the last hour to close near the lows. I could easily make a case for buying OEX puts here and perhaps will tomorrow. However the internals have been very positive lately and the summation index continues higher. We are medium term overbought and any strength tomorrow will get us short term overbought as well. But I'm not completely sold on the market falling apart here. It's a tough call but we are at the longer term weekly down trend lines. Fed on Wednesday and the employment report on Friday. There will be plenty of reasons to go one way or the other. Gold was up $5 today but the XAU dropped 2 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM were all down at least 1/2 on light volume. I still have an order in for some ABX calls but this doesn't feel like the greatest trade in the world either. However it is oversold short and medium term. Earnings out in a week but it might track the movement in the dollar more closely. It's never easy. GE was down about 20 cents on light volume. Nothing doing there. Mentally I did not sleep well and therefore was a bit tired today. I thought about getting the OEX puts when we were higher on light volume but did not. I am thinking that the ABX call trade could work so I left the open order in. But I'm not totally convinced one way or the other at the moment. And that could be a problem. So I'll go over things again tonight and take it from there.

Continuing higher despite MSFT. The Dow gained 43 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Medium term overbought and staying there at the moment. MSFT loses over 2 points and it doesn't faze the markets. The tone has changed. I'm not trusting the lighter volume here though. I thought perhaps yesterday was the day to get short and I was wrong again. Next week will tell the story with GDP, the Fed and the employment report. I'm leaning to the OEX puts but I'll have to let the market decide. Summation index still heading higher. Tough to fight that. Gold didn't do much today but the XAU rose 3 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all higher with NEM leading the way. That hasn't happened in a while and makes the rise suspect in my opinion. I'm still looking at the ABX calls, canceled my open order for the weekend. Will look to place it again on Monday. The dollar continued higher. GE was up 1/2 on average volume. Could bode well for the overall market going forward but who knows? Mentally I'm doing OK. We are still at the crossroads here. The market has the feel that it wants to go higher though. Sometimes it's all about money flow. A better dollar makes US stocks more attractive. Although oil was back up today any drop there makes stocks look better too. That said, getting short before the Fed is on my mind also. So there will be plenty to ponder over the weekend. Technically we are overbought but could remain there, or not. However it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. As usual I'll try and come up with a game plan for next week and take it from there.

The Dow gained 85 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were up about 170 at one point. A mid-range close heading down. We are medium term overbought here and a pullback should be expected. Today was perhaps the day to purchase some OEX puts. Also we're up against the weekly down trend line in the OEX. Premiums on the OEX options are still a bit high with so much time left for the May cycle. However there may be a divergence on the McClellan oscillator tonight. We'll see. Gold was hammered again, down another $20. The dollar had it's best day in quite some time. Oil was down as well. It is entirely possible that a bottom is in place for the dollar here for a while. Time will tell. The XAU lost 6 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM all down on good volume. NEM reported good earnings and it didn't matter. I had an overnight order in for some ABX calls but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving the order open for tomorrow. Nobody wants gold at the moment. When nobody wants it, that's when I like to take a look at it. There is a buy signal for the gold shares here. That doesn't mean it will work right away but the odds tilt in your favor I believe. GE showed some life for a change and was up a buck during the day. It closed up 1/2 on good volume. Mentally I'm doing fine, slept well enough. Money moves around. It seems that it is moving out of bonds and into stocks recently. Perhaps starting to move out of oil and gold and into stocks. Perhaps moving from the euro to the dollar. These seem to be the short term themes I'm seeing at the moment. That said, MSFT disappointed after the bell and we should see a down day tomorrow, especially with an overbought medium term condition. Perhaps we've seen the highs of this move today but I'm not completely sold on that idea. We'll see what happens.

A choppy day as the Dow opened higher, went lower, back up again and ended in the middle of the range. It was a gain of 43 points on OK volume. Advance/declines were positive. No good signal one way or the other here at the moment. I'm hoping we are building a top here but hope isn't something to trade on. So we'll see how it goes. Gold lost $17 today and the XAU dropped 6 1/2. ABX and GG both lost about 2 bucks. The volume was pretty good in ABX and it's breaking the 200 day moving average line. Not good signs for the bullish cause. That said, we are oversold there and getting a weak buy signal for the gold shares. I'm keeping an eye on it and might go long some ABX calls soon. Earnings are out in the May option cycle and they should be pretty good. NEM was down today also. GE was flat on average volume. Not really much going on there. Mentally I'm feeling OK, got a good nights sleep. We've got the Fed in a week and that can be a problem for the trading up until then. Perhaps we will just hang around until that's out of the way. Technically there isn't anything solid to go by at the moment in my opinion. I'd still like to see some type of light volume levitation and short things from there. Looks like Starbucks is lowering its forecast in the aftermarket, we'll see how that affects things tomorrow. Apple reports after the bell also. Patience for now.

A downer on Wall Street today as the Dow lost 105 points. Volume was a little better, with the advance/declines over 2 to 1 negative. We were lower from the start and about off 170 at the days worst levels. Working off the overbought condition. Is it the beginning of the end? Not just yet in my opinion but I could be wrong. As I said yesterday, I'd like to see it build a top here before getting short. And even then it may not be the right scenario. I'm going to see how it plays out for now. Would like to see some momentum divergences but I'll have to be patient. Gold was up around $7 today but the XAU dropped 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all down a touch on light volume. What's going on here I wonder? Not usually a good sign when the gold shares don't follow the metal itself. The dollar was weaker again and oil hit another record high. However nobody was flocking to the gold shares. GE lost a bit on average volume. Not much going on there since it blew out the Friday before April expiration week. Mentally I'm a bit tired, not a good nights sleep. I'm going to try and be patient here, with the May option premiums still pretty high. We haven't broken out and we really haven't broken down from the moment of truth here. I'd like to see a lighter volume push to the upside here and get short then. But it's wishful thinking as the market will do what it wants. I suppose if ever there was a time to pay attention, it's now.

Starting the week off on a mixed note as the Dow lost about 24 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. The NASDAQ was higher. We sold off early and came back. The market seems as though it wants to go higher here. We are short term overbought and just about at the weekly down trend lines. I'll need to see some volume if we break the longer term down trend lines. Otherwise I'm looking at the OEX puts. We are at the beginning of the May option cycle. Not a lot of data out this week. It could be a wait and see approach for now. Fed is next week. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU lost a couple points. ABX, GG and NEM were all lower, with NEM off the most. Volume was light. The dollar lost some ground today but there wasn't any rally in the gold shares. GE was off 1/4 on light volume. Kind of a treading water day all the way around. Mentally I'm OK, didn't sleep all that good. We are at the point on the charts that is just about make or break time. I've been waiting for the indices to get to their respective down trend lines and they are there. What happens here will determine where we are going for the May option cycle. My ideal scenario would be to form some type of top over the next few days and then get short. But the market will do whatever it wants. I'll try and listen to what it tells us and act accordingly. Easier said than done. I've got some ideas about the Fed meeting but that's all they are, ideas. They aren't facts. So it's time to pay close attention, as always, to what's going on and take it from there.

A huge expiration Friday as the Dow gained 229 points. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive and the volume was good. So the question now is, is it for real or just expiration related? The summation index is trending higher. We don't have any negative divergences as yet. We are just about at the weekly down trend line in the indices and seem to be breaking through it on the Dow. I'll check things over the weekend. Earnings are beating the lowered estimates so far. There isn't a signal yet but we are getting short term overbought. Option premiums are expensive rolling into the May cycle. I'd like to give it time to build a little top but we'll see. Gold was down today on the stronger dollar. It lost over $25. The XAU didn't do so bad considering, only down 3 3/4. ABX and NEM were off over a buck and GG lost half of that. Don't exactly know what to make of that, perhaps influenced by the strong market up move. Not even close to a buy signal in the gold shares though. GE was up over 1/2 on good volume. Just a week ago the stock got clobbered and the overall market tanked. Now here we are with a great week in the averages for the bullish cause following that debacle. So it never gets easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. We aren't medium term overbought yet and I should probably wait for that before attempting the OEX puts. Fed meeting in a week and a half. There isn't any rush to do anything at the moment. The weekend is here and it's again time for a respite. I'll be checking the charts over the next 2 days and going from there. Right now it seems as though the market wants to go higher regardless. Time will tell.

The Dow was basically flat on the day as it gained a point. Advance/declines were about even and the volume was average. It was a tight range for most of the day. There was a lot of volume in the OEX 630 calls, whatever that means. Google reported good earnings after the bell and is up 10%. We'll see if it carries over for tomorrow. No trades on the horizon. Gold lost 5 bucks today and the XAU lost 3 points. ABX, GG and NEM all lost some ground on light volume. Nothing doing there for now. GE lost a touch on good volume. The scenario remains the same. Patience until we get to the weekly down trend lines in the indices and go from there. Unless there is a decent signal, it's a waiting game. Mentally I feel OK, got some needed rest. Options expiration tomorrow. No need to take any unnecessary risks. We'll go on to next week and take it from there. The gold shares will be reporting earnings in the May cycle. That will have to be taken into consideration for any trades there. Bonds lost ground today and there is rumblings that the money from bonds will start to flow into stocks. That is possible and if it happens it could support the market here for a while. But one day doesn't make a trend, however it will be something to keep an eye on.

Well we got the anticipated good up day, with the Dow soaring 256 points. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive and the volume was good for a change. I dumped the OEX calls for a small loss on the first batch of 15% and a gain on the second batch of 180%. I could have done even better and showed a small profit on the first batch if I had held them longer. But you can always second guess the trades. Already after the market has closed, IBM has reported good earnings and the stock index futures are rallying. However with just 2 days left on the options I decided the risk wasn't worth it and locked in the gains. It was a mistake but you never know it at the time. You've gotta move on. Gold rallied 16% and the XAU jumped over 10 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all up over $2. The volume was good. There's another trade missed as there was a signal for gold a few weeks ago and I didn't follow it. The dollar was weaker today and oil was higher, both helping gold. Also ABX was medium term oversold and I should have picked up on that. It's never an easy game. GE was up 30 cents on good volume. Would have liked to see GE get more involved on a day the market rallies over 250. We could be in a base building mode there. Mentally I'm tired. Did not sleep much and the trading takes its toll, especially these short term attempts during options expiration week. Of course I am disappointed in not holding the OEX calls but what can you do? I think I was somewhat preoccupied with not having a losing trade for the year. Had I timed things better the results would have been stellar. Instead it's a matter of going on from here. I suppose I could have remembered that sometimes there is the positive bias for expiration week. I chose to limit the risk. There will be other trades down the road I suppose. We'll see where we end up tomorrow.

The Dow managed a 60 point gain on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We opened strong and sold off to negative territory for much of the day. Came back in the final hour to finish where we did. It wasn't a 100 point up day as I was wrong once again. Oversold and staying there at the moment and that isn't positive. I must say that I am confused as to why we can't get the usual oversold bounce here. 3 days left on the option cycle. The first OEX calls are under water, not coming back and it's a cut the loss mode there. The second OEX calls purchased are in the black. Probably will dump them tomorrow if my brain is working properly. Lots of data tomorrow and the Fed minutes later in the day. I can't see how anything the Fed has to say will be viewed as positive at this point. Inflation was higher today with more due out at the open tomorrow. Some housing numbers too. So we'll see. Gold was up a few bucks and the XAU rose 2 points. GG continues to show relative strength among the group, up 1 1/4. ABX and NEM were both up fractionally. Light volume as has been the norm. GE was up 1/4 on good volume. It's still blown out but a bounce would be nice for those OEX calls. Wishful thinking there and that doesn't do anything. Mentally I'm doing OK. As I said, I can't figure out why we haven't gotten some type of oversold rally here. Short covering at the least. Perhaps we are going to be in trouble here soon, I don't know. There certainly hasn't been any volume lately and that is a lack of interest. The risk in the open positions I have at the moment is very high. I'll need to mitigate that tomorrow. So we'll see what happens.

Monday started us off with a loss of 23 points on the Dow. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was light. The OEX calls I own lost more ground. Baring a miracle, that will be the first losing trade of the year. I bought some more OEX calls at a different strike price at the close. It is kind of the same trade really just better timing in my opinion. Unless the stock market completely collapses tomorrow, we will be higher. I will go out on a limb and say we are up at least 100 or more on the Dow tomorrow. We are both short and intermediate term oversold. It is one thing to say we will be higher and another to profit from it. Hence the purchase of more calls at the close today. We'll see. Gold was up a touch and so was the XAU. ABX and GG were higher, while NEM lost some ground. Volume was light again. The dollar rallied a bit overnight and then sold off during the day. There was a G-7 meeting over the weekend and they tried to talk up the dollar. I might try something for gold in the May option cycle. Haven't gotten a signal yet. GE was slightly lower on extremely heavy volume. It will sell itself out here eventually. A bounce here would certainly help the OEX. If I had been thinking properly, after the GE news on Friday, I would have waited to purchase the OEX calls. Hindsight is always right. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep that well. It was also extremely hot here over the weekend and today. It takes a bit out of you and can affect your concentration. Same for extreme cold I suppose. However the premise for the market here remains the same. A decent up day tomorrow and that will probably allow me to exit the calls. If not then there are worse things to come but I doubt it near term.

Well we did get weakness today as the Dow got clobbered, down 256 points on average volume lately. Advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative. Blame it on GE as it lost over 10% of its value in one day. Unheard of in the usual course of events. I did get some OEX calls but they're under water. This already has the feel of a trade that should have been avoided. We are going to get an up move in the next 2 days in my opinion. The trouble is that it's coming from much lower levels than I expected. A mistake basically and now it's a matter of managing the loss. Gold lost about $4, while the XAU was down over 4 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all down a buck or more on light volume. The interest in the gold shares just isn't what it used to be. I still am looking to get some calls if another signal appears. No hurry at this point. GE was the story of the day as it warned the earnings will be a few cents less then expected. For this transgression the stock was taken out and shot. A roughly 12.5% loss in one day on the heaviest volume that I have ever seen in the stock. The OEX won't get going unless GE has a bounce. Mentally I'm a bit tired as I didn't sleep as much as usual. I was early on the OEX calls and that could have been avoided. I think I was perhaps in a rush to put on the trade and I should have been patient. Getting OEX calls on Monday is really the trade to look at. Perhaps I'll give that a shot because I'm a believer that it will work. I'm going to have to collect my thoughts over the weekend and go from there. The closer to expiration the more important timing becomes. This is a scalp trade but I'm afraid this time the scalp is mine. But its Friday afternoon and time for a break. Check the charts over the weekend and see where we go on Monday.

The Dow rose 55 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were up over 100 at one point. Do I still want to buy weakness tomorrow? We'll see. Today makes things a bit more difficult. Monday is perhaps the optimum time to get long. But maybe not. And therein lies one of the problems of trading. You just never know for sure. We are medium term overbought here and that doesn't help the bullish cause. This is a scalp trade if it happens. I'll ponder it again tonight and go from there. Gold lost 5 bucks today and the XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM all had daily ranges of around a dollar but ended little changed. Volume wasn't much again. I'd like to get long here because I think the CPI next week is going to be strong. I don't think I'll be putting that trade on though. I'd really like to go out to May or June if we get a decent signal. I also think we just might move sideways for a while, like the overall market has lately. GE was up 1/3 on average volume. Perhaps that bodes well for the overall market but that's a guess. Mentally I feel OK. Just wondering if this OEX trade is going to be worth the mental capital. Again, the timing will be very important with only 6 days left on the option cycle. I still think we will get a decent up move between now and the close on Tuesday but I could be wrong. I suppose we'll see if there is weakness tomorrow and go from there. There is always the option of doing nothing. I still feel that shorting the OEX when it hits the weekly downtrend line will be a good trade when we get there. There's nothing wrong with patience.

Another light volume day as the Dow dropped 49 points. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. Going nowhere fast? I still need to see weakness into Friday to try this next trade. So far it's panning out but you never know. Will be getting OEX calls on weakness Friday if all goes according to plan. Gold had a good day, up about $20 as the dollar went lower and oil higher. The XAU rose 3 3/4. ABX and GG were up over a buck while NEM lagged, up just a touch. Volume wasn't what it used to be on the rallies. We'll see what happens with overseas interest rates tomorrow and go from there. My thinking is that we need to build more of a base here but I don't know. GE lost around 1/2 on light volume. No trades there. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. Would like to get through tomorrows market action and concentrate on Friday for getting OEX calls. Of course I'm not 100% sure on any trade but I do believe that we will have some type of decent up move between now and the close on Tuesday. I could be wrong. Timing as always will be the key. This isn't a trade to hold forever, it's a get in, make your profit and get out. I'd like to see us flat to down tomorrow and go from there. Wishful thinking. I've been patient thus far, so waiting another day is the idea. We'll see.

The Dow lost 36 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were down from the start but it wasn't much compared to last month. We are working off the overbought condition. There isn't much interest one way or the other at the moment or so it seems. My idea for now is to let it pull back and if it does, get some OEX calls on Friday for expiration week. That's the scenario at the moment in my mind. Gold was off $8 and the XAU lost 2 points. ABX and GG each lost a buck while NEM had a slight gain. Volume was light here as well. I'm going to see if we work our way back to the 170 level on the XAU and take it from there. ABX is medium tern oversold but I am in no hurry at the moment. GE dropped 1/4 on light volume as well. No trades there in the near future as far as I can tell. But you never know. Mentally I'm feeling fine, got a good nights sleep. 8 days until the April cycle ends. I'm thinking weakness into Friday, get long and sell out after Tuesday of next week. Now if it all plays out like that, it will be a first. Volatility has slowed quite a bit from last month. I don't think there is any rush to put a trade on here but I would like to make some money. If things go the way I anticipate, I think it's going to be a good trade. But then, when don't you think that? Summation index still pointing higher. A lot of data out next week so for now it's sit tight and see what happens.

Interesting Monday as we were up 100 but the Dow closed ahead only 3 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. The NASDAQ was down but the S&P 500 was up. We are moving towards medium term overbought and I would not be surprised to see some downside action. I was hoping we could hold on until Wednesday and then get short but the market isn't waiting around for me so it seems. I don't think it would the beginning of an extended decline just yet. If we can somehow manage to rally tomorrow and Wednesday, I'll be getting some OEX puts. But that remains to be seen. Gold was up around $13 today but the XAU was flat. The XAU followed the market higher and then sold off as well. ABX was up a bit, GG was flat and NEM lost some ground. The volume was light here as well. The interest in the gold shares has waned and the buy signal is over. The dollar was higher today and gold still rallied perhaps following oil as well. I think it will sell off after the ECB meeting on Thursday but that's a guess. GE was off 1/4 on light volume. No trades there. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept good enough. Not a lot of data out this week but earnings season begins with AA tonight. I can't see how earnings will be all that great for a lot of companies with higher costs and lower spending in numerous areas. But what do I know? The street can read the numbers any way they'd like. Anyway, sticking with the plan, if and when we get to the weekly downtrend line in the OEX I'll be looking to get short. Until then patience is required and it's a waiting game.

We were down early, then up and down again. Not like the previous month, with 100-200 point moves but up and down nonetheless. The Dow lost 16 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. The employment report was weak, we sold off and then came back. We are getting closer to the weekly down trend line but aren't there yet. 2 weeks on the April option cycle. I'm leaning towards the short side if we get a decent signal and it could happen next week. But that could change. Gold didn't do much, up around $3 but it is rallying in the aftermarket. The XAU rose 3 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher but the volume was light. GG gained almost a buck. The dollar was weaker but we didn't get the big move in the gold shares as we have in the past. I'd still like to get long ABX at some point for the May cycle. However the European Central Bank meets next week and if they lower interest rates it may boost the dollar sending gold lower. But it's all just a guess at this point. GE lost 1/4 on light volume. Light volume was the theme for the day really as nobody is stepping up to buy or sell here in a big way. Sideways is the rule for now. Mentally I'm not feeling 100%. Slept OK. Not much else to say here. It's been a waiting game for the weekly down trend line to come into play and the waiting continues. Earnings begin next week and we'll see how that turns out. Not a lot of economic data coming out next week. And so it goes. I'll check the charts over the weekend and take it from there.

Kind of a waiting game today as the Dow gained 20 points. Volume slowed from yesterday and the advance/declines were positive. We're moving towards short term overbought. Waiting for the employment report basically. Don't know how that will shake out but I can't expect it shows a lot of employment gains. We'll see. Gold was up $9 and the XAU added a buck. ABX and GG both lost a bit of ground while NEM was unchanged. Volume was lighter. The dollar didn't do much, waiting for tomorrow. The gold shares are oversold but we have just about worked off the buy signal. I wouldn't be surprised on way or the other with tomorrows action but I remain on the sidelines there. GE lost 1/4 on light volume. This issue seems to be in a solid up trend at the moment. The declines are small on light volume and then we pick up on the upside. But we all know that could change. However the trend there is up and we'll see if the overall market can follow. Mentally I'm a bit tired as I did not sleep well and am not feeling 100% today. Trading takes a lot of stamina and energy when your money is on the line. You have to be up for it. There is no getting around that. Mentally and physically you have to give it everything you can. There is no halfway in this game. If you're not up for the challenge, wait until you are.

A slight pullback today as the Dow lost 45 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. I'm still sticking with the sideways to up scenario. My guess is that it's a waiting game for the employment report on Friday. We'll go from there. Gold was up $12 and is rallying in the aftermarket. The XAU rose 7 1/2. ABX and GG were up around $2 and NEM gained 1 1/2. The volume was good. The buy signal seemed to be working today. I think we have established a line in the sand with the XAU at 170. We've bounced off of that level twice. If we meander back to that level, I'll be getting some gold share calls. It might be too late. The dollar was weaker and gold seems to be tracking that pretty closely lately. So we'll see. GE was off 1/2 on lighter volume. No trades there. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep all that well. Not all that excited about the April option cycle at this point. I don't see any clear signals at the moment. It seems like we will try and reach the weekly down trend line for the OEX at 650. That's how it feels right now. Summation index moving higher and the market isn't getting a sustained rally yet. I would like to get short the next time it rolls over but that could be a while. For now I'll just have to sit tight and keep an eye on things.

It was a very positive day for the markets as the Dow rose 391 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 5 to 1 positive. Beginning of the month and quarter money being put to work? Rotation out of bonds and commodities? Short covering? Pick what you'd like. Bad news from UBS and the market shrugged it off. Summation index still heading higher and after today with some gusto. The market is trying to move out of the sideways range to the upside. I still think the moment of truth is at the weekly down trend line and the Dow is almost there. If GE is any indication, that down trend line will be broken to the upside. GE was up another 1 1/3 today on good volume. It has been one hell of a move there in the past month. This isn't your typical move in GE and I think it bears watching for the overall market. Gold got clobbered today, off over $30 and closing below the $900 level. The dollar was stronger. The XAU lost almost 4 points which wasn't that bad, considering. ABX and GG both lost more than a buck on good volume. NEM was only off a half but it's already blown out to the downside and below the 200 day moving average on a daily basis. Still a buy signal here for the gold shares but it isn't working. I will get some ABX calls sooner or later though. I mean who knows, a weak employment report will have dollar dropping again most likely. However I'm remaining patient there at the moment. Mentally I feel OK, got a good nights sleep. Interesting day today as we've seen some incredible rallies in the past 3 weeks. None of them have led to a sustained multi-week upside move as yet. Will this one be different? That is the question. However when the market rallies in the face of bad news, you've got to pay attention. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

March is going out like a lamb as the Dow gained 46 points today. Things are still settling out but the volume looks light and the advance/declines are positive. We were up 100 at one point today. It could be a waiting game until the employment report on Friday but we'll see. If we were negative today I could have made a case for getting long. But for now it's the sidelines with regards to the OEX. Gold lost $15 today and it looks like it followed oil lower. The XAU dropped 3 1/2 but was lower almost twice as much earlier. ABX, GG and NEM were all off over a buck. The volume was nothing special. Still getting a buy signal here for the gold shares. I'm going to be patient though. The dollar didn't do much and gold still went down. Could be end of the month gyration. GE was up 1/3 on average volume. Still no trades there as yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK, overslept today for a change. We are still in a sideways channel here for the OEX. The summation index is pointing higher but we haven't seen any rally yet. For now patience is the key. If there is a good signal I'll act on it but until then it's a waiting game. You still have to pay attention every day. The focus and discipline required doesn't change. It's the Super Bowl each business day from 6:30 to 1:00 PST. That's just something you have to accept and be ready to deal with. That's why the game is so tough and not easily figured out by most. Myself included.

Lower we go as the Dow shed 86 points on light volume. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. No buyers or interest as we head lower. Will be short term oversold on Monday if there is more negative action. Is it tradeable? Perhaps but the premiums for the OEX options are still pretty high. I might give it a try but I'm not expecting some huge rally. I could be wrong. Gold lost around $17 today, however the XAU only dropped 1 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM were all down fractionally on very light volume. Perhaps we will get back into the pattern of the gold stocks leading the metal again. Or not. The gold shares did sell off early and then came back. I'm still thinking we are going to move sideways there before the next big move. But that could change. GE lost 1/4 on light volume. Nothing exciting there either. Mentally I'm feeling OK, no great shakes one way or the other. We started the week with a nice up day and then just drifted off for the rest of the week. I'm still sticking with the up to sideways trend for the market here. I don't think there is a big sell-off coming in the April option cycle but I could be wrong. At this point the market seems to be waiting around for the next report of bad news. So we'll see. For now it's the weekend and time for a break. I'll be checking the charts and trying to develop a game plan for next week.

Another downer for the markets today as the Dow lost 120 points. Volume was light again and the advance/declines were less than 2 to 1 negative. Almost at a short term oversold point and will be with another day like today. The market really doesn't seem like it's going anywhere at the moment. After such extreme volatility that we've seen lately a couple of 100 point down days don't seem like much. End of the month and the quarter approaching, that could be interesting. But for now it's really a wait and see time until a valid signal appears. Gold was little changed but it did sell off early in the session. The XAU dropped 2 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM were off 1/4, 1/2 and 3/4 respectively. The volume was light. The dollar stabilized. I'd still like to get long the gold shares after we build a base but we'll see. GE was off about 1/4 on light volume. No reason to trade there at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Trying to remain patient here, there is no need to force things at the moment. It's a waiting game at this point really and that is sometimes hard to do. No trades in the pipeline. It's simply a matter of keeping an eye on things and waiting for the next perceived opportunity. It may not be exciting but you don't lose anything either.

The Dow fell back today, off 110 points on lighter volume. Advance/declines were negative but not drastically. This action is to be expected for an up to sideways market. Volume is lighter on the declines. But that could change as we all know. But for now the prognosis remains the same. A waiting game until we reach the weekly down trend line. It could take a few weeks. Unless there is a decent signal before then. Gold continued to snap back, up $15. The XAU rose another 5 points. ABX outperformed today, up 1 3/4 on good volume. GG and NEM managed just around 1/2 each. I would expect these issues to fall back some from here but I could be wrong. The dollar got clobbered again today. GDP report out tomorrow and weakness may send the dollar even lower. But that's a guess. Bottom line here is that the bounce trade was missed. GE was off 1/4 on average volume. Considering the strong up move there we certainly are not seeing any weakness in GE. That could bode well for the overall market. Mentally I'm doing OK. Still thinking about what is going on in gold at the moment. Really disappointed in missing the bounce trade but I can't let it bother me going forward. The whole idea is really to identify opportunities and be able to take advantage of them. That's it in a nutshell. You do that and you'll do fine. You're gonna be wrong sometimes and you'll miss some but you've got to keep on moving ahead. Persistence doesn't hurt and neither does courage. But for now perhaps patience isn't a bad trait either.

Seemed like a day of indecision as the Dow lost 16 points on average volume. The overall market was stronger as both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ were higher. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. The summation index has turned around to the upside. The market certainly acts like it is out of panic mode for the moment. But we all know how that can change. A bit overbought but no signal for a trade yet. Gold rallied $16 as the dollar was weaker. The XAU gained 8 1/4 and closed near its high. That's the expected bounce taking place. Wasn't filled on the ABX calls as it was off to the races for the gold shares from the open. GG had the relative strength again as it was up 2 1/2. ABX and NEM managed 1 1/2 to the upside. Volume was average, not the heavy volume that took place on the spike to the top. May try getting long the gold shares on the next pullback but that isn't set in stone. Sideways action would help build a base for the next run-up if there is one. GE lost a touch again on average volume. No trades there. Mentally I'm feeling pretty good considering missing the gold bounce. The ABX calls didn't move that much anyway since we are so early in the option cycle. So now it's a waiting game for some other signal in the OEX or something else. Sometimes the April cycle is a sideways affair. We'll see how this year plays out.

A nice start to the week for the bulls as the Dow rose 187 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. That should move the summation index back to the upside which would bode well for the near future. But you never know. The talk is that money is coming out of bonds and commodities and finding its way to the stock market. We'll see. I'm sticking with sideways to up for now until we reach the weekly down trend line on the indices. That will be the moment of truth in my opinion. Gold was higher early but closed down around a buck. The XAU followed suit and was off 3/4. ABX and NEM were down fractionally while GG managed a slight gain. The volume was heavy again in ABX. We are overdone here in the gold shares I believe, short term and I have an order in for some ABX calls. This is a scalp trade that I feel could work this week. Not to mention the technicals are blown out to the downside. It's a bounce trade really and one that won't last beyond a day or two, if filled and the timing is right. As always, I could be wrong. GE was down a bit on average volume. Just as gold probably won't go in a straight line down, GE most likely won't continue going in a straight line up. Mentally I'm feeling OK, got a decent nights sleep. I'm focused on gold and ABX for the time being as I think that this is where the current opportunity is. The new option cycle has just begun and normally I'd just be biding my time for the premiums to be better priced. Patience isn't a bad thing. However I think this trade may have potential but only in the short term. Timing, as always, will be key. Also the discipline to stick to a short term time horizon cannot be lost in the shuffle. On to tomorrow.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 262 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Whether the gain was expiration related or just players hoping this is the bottom is one of the questions. Personally, I think that's it for the bad news for at least a few weeks. But that's a guess. It is an election year and we can't have voters worried later in the year if you're a Republican. However we'll stick with the technicals when it comes to doing the trading. Gold lost another $25 to $30 depending on your choice of markets. Now it's a free fall after an amazing run up. The XAU shed 6 points. ABX, NEM and GG lost over $3, $2 and $1 respectively. GG is showing relative strength again but I really wanted to buy some ABX calls today for the bounce. Yes, there will be a bounce most likely followed by sideways activity until we get going again to the upside here. The dollar has stabilized this week and we'll see how long that lasts. My guess is that we won't be going any lower in the near term. GE was again the star of the day, up almost $2 on very, very heavy volume. Incredible volume really. GE had a week like I've never seen. It can't possibly keep that up. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Would have liked to have the courage to step up and purchase some ABX calls today. Might try it Monday if I get a chance but today could have been the day. I mean really, ABX lost 20% of it's value this week as the funds dumped gold shares. Anyway, that's something to ponder over the long weekend. Time to relax, take a break and get ready for next week. Will things begin to slow down, volatility-wise? We'll see.

The roller coaster ride continues as the Dow lost 293 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. Which wasn't too bad considering we lost almost 300. Bottoming process? We'll see. Expiration week gyrations? Perhaps. Just a continuation of the bear market? Time will tell. As usual lots of questions with no easy answers in this market. I'm sticking with a sideways to up theory at this point. With more volatility then usual. Gold dropped another $40 today. Depending on the market you use it will be reported that gold lost $60 today. Whether it's gold futures or spot market, it got clobbered. Nothing goes straight up forever. The XAU lost almost 15 points. GG and NEM were both off over $2. ABX lost almost 10% of its value. The volume was extremely heavy. They pile in and they pile out. There is a buy signal for the gold shares here again but I would not advise it. There will be an entry point again but not yet in my opinion. GE was off a half on heavy volume. It has indeed broken the weekly down trend line. That doesn't mean that it's straight up from here but it is constructive going forward for now. Mentally I'm doing OK. Volatility takes its toll but I don't have any trades going at the moment. We'll get through tomorrow and then take a look at things over the long weekend.

The Fed to the rescue again as the Dow soared 420 points! We've seen this before recently. I think this time it might have a little more staying power. Advance/declines were about 10 to 1 positive and the volume was huge. Rates were cut again. There was a non-conformation for yesterdays low with the McClellan oscillator. I'm not saying it's straight up from here but I think we'll stop going lower. It could only be a sideways move, we'll see. I still believe that shorting things gets interesting again when we get to the weekly down trend line. But I could be wrong. At any rate we should stop falling for the time being. Gold lost around $20 after the rate cut. All the good news for gold was already in the price I suppose. The XAU lost over 7 points. ABX, GG and NEM all lost over 2 1/2 on good volume. Maybe they just wanted to run them down for the March expiration puts. We did go parabolic in gold lately so a pullback is in order if not an extended decline. GE was up 1 2/3 on extremely heavy volume. Now when do we see GE move like that unless there's an earnings announcement? We don't. I'll need to check the chart but we could be breaking the longer term down trend line here. That would be overall bullish if true. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep as long as usual. 2 days before expiration. No trades in the works at the moment. Is it too late to get long something for April? We'll see. It will not be a given. The market has been unusually volatile so far this year. Will it continue? Stay tuned.

Well it wasn't too bad considering a major Wall Street investment bank just went belly-up. The Dow gained 21 points after being down almost 200 and up 100. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative and I don't have good volume figures at the moment but I'm sure it was heavy. They managed to keep it propped up today but tomorrow? Who knows? The dollar stabilized for a day and it's in free fall. Fed meeting tomorrow and even if they cut rates, which they will, it really doesn't matter at this point. The damage has been done. The overall market was weak, with the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 both lower. It's another worldwide margin call as the overseas markets were much lower. What happens next is the question. It does look like a 5 wave down pattern in the major indices so we could be near a bottom here sometime this week. Or not. It does seem like a lot of the bad news is out for now. Expiration week though and that good get things overdone. We'll see. Gold was up over $25 at one point but came back to be up $3. The XAU lost 6 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all down, with NEM down the least. How much longer can that party go on? No trades there at the moment. GE was up 1/2 on very heavy volume. My guess is that the word went out to buy stocks such as GE, INTC and MSFT to keep things from getting totally out of control today. At least you know that these companies are going to stick around regardless. Mentally I'm doing OK. 3 days before expiration and a Fed meeting to boot. Hopefully I won't be doing anything foolish here but you never know. Usually when it seems as if the world is falling apart, it's a good time to buy. I agree with that however it may just be a temporary bottom with more to come later on. Or it may not be near the bottom at all. As usual there are a lot of questions with no easy answers.

An interesting Friday as the Dow dropped 195 points on extremely heavy volume. It wasn't so bad as we were down over 300 at one point. A final hour save the day bounce came in to help things. Well they're trying to hold things up here. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. Bear Stearns is going under. That's basically what's happening here but it'll be called a bailout. Everybody wanted to get their money out today and Bear just doesn't have it. Same thing would happen if everybody showed up at your local bank on the same day to withdraw their money. Anyway the option premiums are crazy with out of the money stuff still way overpriced with just 4 days to go. The inflation data was mild but it doesn't matter when major brokerages are failing. Will there be others? Stay tuned. Gold was up 5 bucks but was higher. The XAU rose a point. ABX and GG were up a touch on heavy volume while NEM lost a bit. The dollar is in free fall and everybody loves gold. This won't go on forever but there seems to be no stopping it at the moment. GE lost about 1/2 on heavy volume. It made a comeback along with the overall market. Mentally I'm doing OK, not feeling too well at the moment. No trades on the horizon with 4 days left in the option cycle. That could change but we do have the Fed on Tuesday. The markets are very volatile at the moment. If there is a decent signal, I'll do something but otherwise preservation of capital isn't a bad thing. In the last hour or so today the market moved 200 points one way and then 100 points the other. You've got to be able to handle that. For now it's the weekend and time for a break. A check of the charts and perhaps a game plan for April.

Today a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow gained 35 points on heavy volume. We were off more than 200 points early and came all the way back. Advance/declines were positive. It seems as if we are trying to put in some type of bottom here but it is no sure thing just yet. Hard to say exactly what is going on but the expiration week gyrations are starting early due to next Fridays holiday. Hard to trade it right here as the risk is high. Weak retail sales data today and we get an inflation report tomorrow. Might hear the case for stagflation again. Gold was up $13 today and the futures hit $1000 for the first time today. The XAU gained 7 points. ABX and NEM were both up over $2 and GG rose 1 3/4. So much for my thoughts on shorting this group. It's a momentum driven gold market here. But we are still going straight up and that never ends well. GE was up almost a 1/4 on heavy volume again. We are almost at the weekly down trend line here. If we get through that it will help put a stop to the overall down market that we've been in since late last year in my opinion. But it hasn't happened yet. Mentally I'm feeling much better. Got a decent nights sleep and that helps a lot. Trading all the time can be a drain. You've got to balance things out once in a while. That doesn't mean you pack up and are not paying attention. It does mean that you pick your spots and try not to make it so intense by trading every tick in the market. It isn't an easy game and it's best to try not to make it any harder.

A one day reversal to the downside as the Dow closed lower by 46 points. We were up around 140 at one point. Volume was good and the advance/declines were negative. After yesterdays stellar gains it wasn't a surprise to see some downside. It's where we go from here that matters. Was it a one day oversold bounce? I certainly don't know but time will tell. I dumped the OEX calls. The entry was good but he exit was horrible. Greedy? Tired? Just plain dumb? The gain was well over 100% in 2 days but it could have been better. I had a chance to do well but blew it. And so it goes. Gold was up $4 and the XAU was about unchanged. ABX was up 1/4 while GG and NEM were down fractionally. Was busy with the OEX trade and haven't been watching gold as closely as usual. Will check the charts tonight. Am leaning to the short side though even with the recent buy signal. Guessing the Fed will disappoint next week and there will be some dollar short covering. GE was up 60 cents on very heavy volume again. It's possible that GE is going to turn around here. That could bode well for the overall market. We'll see. Mentally, I'm spent at the moment. Tired and not happy with the OEX trade. But you've gotta move on. We quickly reached levels in the past 2 days that I thought would take a lot longer. I needed to make the adjustment but didn't. It's never an easy time or so it seems. But that's the nature of the game. On to the next trade.

The Fed to the rescue as the Dow roars ahead 416 points! Volume was huge and the advance/declines were over 4 to 1 positive. Today the Fed decided to play musical chairs with bank mortgage debt. I don't really know what it all means but the stock market viewed it as a big positive. But what happens after today? We've relieved the oversold condition by far. The short term down trend line has been broken to the upside. There is another longer term down trend line about 250 Dow points from here. At this rate we'll get there tomorrow but I doubt it. The OEX calls from yesterday are in the black. Hopefully there will be some follow through to the upside tomorrow and I'll probably get out. It was supposed to be a short term trade but there is room to go higher. Gold was up about $4 today while the XAU surged 9 1/2 points. GG and NEM both up over $2, while ABX gained over a buck. Volume was nothing special. The gold signal from yesterday worked again. However I've noticed that lately when NEM is leading the way we are nearing the end of the up move for the gold shares. We'll see if it's true this time around. GE had an incredible day, up 1 3/4 on heavy volume. Is the down trend over in GE? It still hasn't broken the weekly down trend line but it is way overdone on the downside. Mentally I'm a bit tired as I didn't sleep all that well. That and the ongoing position at times can take a toll. The question now is, was today a one day wonder? Time will tell. A bounce was due but this was beyond super ball material. The shorts got squeezed big time. The advance/declines were not as robust as I would have liked for a move like this. So we''ll see what happens. Retail sales and inflation data later this week. What the Fed did today won't change those numbers. Anyway, some follow through tomorrow morning supposedly and we'll go from there.

The downside continues with the Dow off another 153 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. Oversold and staying there. Summation index still pointing down. There is a chance that we could even crash here. That said, I bought some OEX calls today. Now who in their right mind would be purchasing calls in a market like this? A bounce is overdue. I think we will have a triple digit up day tomorrow. The medium term technicals are blown out to the downside. This is a short term trade to be closed before the end of the week unless something dramatic to the upside occurs. And I doubt that because we could just as easily fall apart even more here. Gold lost a couple bucks today but the XAU shed 7 1/2. NEM was the strongest today as it only was off fractionally. ABX and GG were both off over a point on light volume. I'm getting another buy signal for gold here today. Some gold calls tomorrow? GE lost 1/2 on good volume and leading the market down. Would like to see some strength in GE for the OEX trade. But the trend is down. Mentally I'm a bit tired as I didn't get enough sleep. Needless to say actually being in a trade again requires a lot of attention and energy. We are at an interesting point in the market. We could just head down for a final washout here. Or not. I have an idea of what will happen here so I had to put on the trade. As always, I could be wrong. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

Closed the week on a down note with the Dow losing 147 points on good volume. Advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. We did come back a bit but the trend remains down. That said I think that you can buy weakness Monday for a short term trade. That's the idea at the moment. My work says that Monday or Tuesday will be a decent up day. We could completely collapse here as well but that is a low percentage bet. I think we'll see 580 on the OEX before expiration but we are getting medium term oversold and are already short term oversold. I'll check things over the weekend. Gold lost a couple bucks but the XAU dropped over 6 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all down around 1 1/2 on lighter volume. I have no trades in mind there at the moment. Will try and wait for the next buy signal. GE lost 1/2 on good volume. I'm thinking of the April 33 calls perhaps at some point. But we'll see. Mentally feeling OK. Somewhat thinking I've got a handle on things marketwise here. Will try and get the conviction over the weekend to take a trade early next week. Summation index is still heading down and approaching the zero line which usually leads to the market unraveling. However we have been dropping for so long that a bounce is due. At this point I'd like to try and play the bounce and then get some puts after that. It's all a guess but we should see some kind of rebound attempt early in the week and then after that it's anybodies guess. For now it's the weekend, time to regroup, check the charts and get some rest

Breaking out to the downside today as the Dow lost 215 points on good volume. Advance/declines were about 9 to 1 negative. The OEX puts were always too expensive. But we are heading lower even if we bounce from time to time. Still may get a chance to play the downside but that would be next week. May not happen. Gold lost $10 today while the XAU only dropped 1/2. ABX and NEM were down today while GG continued its relative strength, up a touch. The dollar continues lower but that won't go on forever in a straight line. GE lost 3/4 on good volume and is looking to take out its lows. Tomorrow maybe? Mentally I'm feeling OK I suppose. Would love to have a conviction for a position here but I don't. Summation index still heading lower and it has been the key here. There's a chance things could fall apart tomorrow but that's not a certainty. The employment report will be a mover early. A weak report would probably mean more weakness in equities and vice versa. Who knows, we could get a short covering rally again. There are a lot of questions at the moment. This much is certain. We are breaking out to the downside of the consolidation as of today. Unless we turn around tomorrow in a big way, the trend is down.

Up, down, up as the market tries to make up its mind here. The Dow gained 41 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were oversold and a bounce is to be expected. Have we formed a bottom and on the way to much higher prices? It's possible but not a certainty. The summation index will still be pointing down and that is troubling for the upside at this point. But it all could change. Employment report on Friday and that will be the key in my opinion. Had every chance to sell off today and the market held on. Gold came back big, up over $20. The XAU rose over 7 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all up over a point. Will we get to $1000 this week? Maybe. Do I still want some gold calls? This market is moving back and forth so much lately that it is hard to say what is going to happen. Can't go up forever though. GE was up 20 cents on average volume. No trades there. Mentally feeling OK, slept well. Really have the feeling that getting long here is the way to go but just can't bring myself to do it. I don't think rallies have any real staying power in a market like this. I could be wrong. Did just get a buy signal on one of the indicators that could last into early next week. Or not. That is part of the problem. We are still in a sideways pattern until proven otherwise. It will break out sooner or later. Waiting for that break requires discipline and patience. It isn't easy.

We got a big move today but it was to the downside. The Dow was off over 200 points but came back in the last hour or so to be down 45 on the day. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative and the volume was heavy. If you had the guts you could have bought the weakness. We are still short term oversold and I would expect upside tomorrow. What to do after that is the key. Perhaps today was the end of the selling for a while. It's possible. But it's also possible that it's just another oversold bounce. We did break out to the downside of this lengthy consolidation but we came right back up into it. The summation index continues lower. There are conflicting signals at the moment. It's never easy. Gold finally took a break, losing over $17. The XAU dropped over 7 points. ABX and NEM each lost over $2 on good volume. GG off over a point. Is this the rollover in gold? Do I want to get some calls now? Again, confusion here reigns at the moment. If the overall market holds up here, that should help gold and we'll hit $1000 before the March expiration. If not, who knows? GE was up 20 cents on average volume. Is GE foretelling the direction of things to come? So many questions with so few answers at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling fine, got a good nights sleep. What is needed at the moment is an idea and the conviction to go with it. I would like to be positioned in something before the employment report on Friday. You don't lose anything on the sidelines but you don't make anything either. When in doubt, stay out is also something that shouldn't be ignored. I'll see what happens tomorrow and go from there.

We came back from the precipice again today as the Dow lost 7 points on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. The Dow was off almost 100 and came back in the last hour. We are at the bottom of the consolidation rectangle and could of broke out to the downside but did not. At this point we are short term oversold. The summation index is pointing down but the McClellan oscillator issued a signal for a big move within the next 2 trading days with the odds of it being to the upside. The signals seem to be to purchase some OEX calls. We'll see. Gold was up another $9 today continuing the straight line upward. The XAU gained back 6 1/2. I almost bought some NEM calls. Maybe tomorrow I'll get some gold calls but the risk is high. ABX and NEM were both up over a dollar and GG gained 1/2. How long can this last? Usually longer then you think. Money continues to go to gold but at some point it will come back out and it will come back out quick. When that point is, is anybodies guess. GE was up 1/3 on light volume. No trades there but perhaps the gain is a preview of thing to come for the overall market. Or not. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. My thinking is that any weakness can be bought tomorrow for a short term trade to the upside. I'm not sure I'll do it though. This has been a long consolidation for the indices. I still think the lows will be taken out sooner or later. That is really the trade that I'd like to be in. But I could be wrong. Employment report on Friday and that should be the mover of the week. Perhaps I will have to wait and position myself before then.