Tuesday, March 04, 2008
We got a big move today but it was to the downside. The Dow was off over 200 points but came back in the last hour or so to be down 45 on the day. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative and the volume was heavy. If you had the guts you could have bought the weakness. We are still short term oversold and I would expect upside tomorrow. What to do after that is the key. Perhaps today was the end of the selling for a while. It's possible. But it's also possible that it's just another oversold bounce. We did break out to the downside of this lengthy consolidation but we came right back up into it. The summation index continues lower. There are conflicting signals at the moment. It's never easy. Gold finally took a break, losing over $17. The XAU dropped over 7 points. ABX and NEM each lost over $2 on good volume. GG off over a point. Is this the rollover in gold? Do I want to get some calls now? Again, confusion here reigns at the moment. If the overall market holds up here, that should help gold and we'll hit $1000 before the March expiration. If not, who knows? GE was up 20 cents on average volume. Is GE foretelling the direction of things to come? So many questions with so few answers at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling fine, got a good nights sleep. What is needed at the moment is an idea and the conviction to go with it. I would like to be positioned in something before the employment report on Friday. You don't lose anything on the sidelines but you don't make anything either. When in doubt, stay out is also something that shouldn't be ignored. I'll see what happens tomorrow and go from there.