Monday, March 03, 2008
We came back from the precipice again today as the Dow lost 7 points on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. The Dow was off almost 100 and came back in the last hour. We are at the bottom of the consolidation rectangle and could of broke out to the downside but did not. At this point we are short term oversold. The summation index is pointing down but the McClellan oscillator issued a signal for a big move within the next 2 trading days with the odds of it being to the upside. The signals seem to be to purchase some OEX calls. We'll see. Gold was up another $9 today continuing the straight line upward. The XAU gained back 6 1/2. I almost bought some NEM calls. Maybe tomorrow I'll get some gold calls but the risk is high. ABX and NEM were both up over a dollar and GG gained 1/2. How long can this last? Usually longer then you think. Money continues to go to gold but at some point it will come back out and it will come back out quick. When that point is, is anybodies guess. GE was up 1/3 on light volume. No trades there but perhaps the gain is a preview of thing to come for the overall market. Or not. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. My thinking is that any weakness can be bought tomorrow for a short term trade to the upside. I'm not sure I'll do it though. This has been a long consolidation for the indices. I still think the lows will be taken out sooner or later. That is really the trade that I'd like to be in. But I could be wrong. Employment report on Friday and that should be the mover of the week. Perhaps I will have to wait and position myself before then.