Thursday, March 06, 2008
Breaking out to the downside today as the Dow lost 215 points on good volume. Advance/declines were about 9 to 1 negative. The OEX puts were always too expensive. But we are heading lower even if we bounce from time to time. Still may get a chance to play the downside but that would be next week. May not happen. Gold lost $10 today while the XAU only dropped 1/2. ABX and NEM were down today while GG continued its relative strength, up a touch. The dollar continues lower but that won't go on forever in a straight line. GE lost 3/4 on good volume and is looking to take out its lows. Tomorrow maybe? Mentally I'm feeling OK I suppose. Would love to have a conviction for a position here but I don't. Summation index still heading lower and it has been the key here. There's a chance things could fall apart tomorrow but that's not a certainty. The employment report will be a mover early. A weak report would probably mean more weakness in equities and vice versa. Who knows, we could get a short covering rally again. There are a lot of questions at the moment. This much is certain. We are breaking out to the downside of the consolidation as of today. Unless we turn around tomorrow in a big way, the trend is down.