The Fed came and went and it led to one day downside reversals for most of the major averages. My higher stock prices thesis was wrong and the positive daily candlestick patterns from yesterday were negated. The Dow fell 76 points on light volume. It had been up around 250 early on. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is on the cusp of breaking lower from the recent congestion zone. The NASDAQ led they way lower and that's a negative. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are now oversold and it is about to touch the lower Bollinger band. Will that be able to hold prices here? Stay tuned. I'm not sure what to expect next but the market goes where it wants. We'll wait and see what happens overseas tonight but still on the sidelines with regards to trading the SPY options. Gold finished flat after being up early on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates slightly rose. The XAU added 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/3 on average volume. Both finished off of the best levels for the day. GDX remains short term overbought and we have seen recent interest here that had been lacking. I still have the order out there for the GDX October calls but if GDX starts to head lower now it may be time to cancel it. GDX was pushed back from the 30 level which is where a down trend line in effect since May occurs on the daily chart. My thinking is if we can make it through that line more buying will come in and the GDX October calls will benefit. That may just be wishful thinking on my part though. Mentally I'm still not 100%. The VIX was higher today and closed above its 50 day moving average. Not yet short term overbought here. I'm not sure what's next for this indicator. Interesting day today but where are we going from here? I don't have a good handle on things at the moment so we will have to watch and wait with regards to the SPY. The lack of volume is a concern as liquidty and participation could become a problem. But we'll see how things go tomorrow. Europe higher and Asia lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Some volatility returned on Tuesday as the Dow fell 106 points on light volume. The advance/declines remain negative. The summation index continues sideways for now. We had a sell off in the morning and spent the rest of the day clawing back. The Dow was the leader lower and that's not the most bearish scenario. The market has a feel of wanting to go higher here but we'll have to wait for tomorrows reaction to the Fed. The technical picture for the S&P 500 has some of the indicators getting oversold but not all. The daily candlestick chart has a potential hammer put in today, which would be bullish. This hammer configuration is also on some of the other major index daily charts. But we'll have to get through whatever the Fed has in store for us tomorrow. We are remaining on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Gold was off a buck on the futures today. The US dollar was flat and interest rates rose. The XAU dropped 2 points and GDX shed 1/3. Volume remains light. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to roll over. I still have an open order out there for the GDX October calls. If the indicators here continue to fall I will probably have to give up on this trade attempt. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was slightly higher today and fell back from its best levels. It does remains below the 50 day moving average. The short term indicators on the VIX are now mid-range so it could go either way. It is a seasonally weak period for the stock market but I do think that there's a good chance to see a rally from here. I could be wrong. We'll know more as we go along. Asia was lower and Europe mixed in last nights trade. All eyes and ears on the Fed Wednesday.

Hanging around today as the Dow crept up 6 points today on pretty light volume. The advance /declines were negative. The summation index remains in a sideways channel. Running in place ahead of the Fed on Wednesday is about how to describe todays lack of action on Wall street. The short term technical picture for the S&P 500 remains the same. We do not have a good signal one way or the other for the SPY so we'll remains on the sidelines for now. Gold was up $8 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates finished flat. The gold shares didn't tag along with gold this time as they were flat on the session. That is not a plus. Volume was light. GDX is getting short term overbought and perhaps the time for the October calls has passed. My order for them is still out there but I am considering abandoning this idea. Mentally I'm feeling tired as I was ill over the weekend. The VIX was up slightly today but remains below its 50 day moving average. The blog is short today as I recover from being sick over the weekend. Europe and Asia were lower to begin the week. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Back to the downside on option expiration Friday as the Dow lost 288 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index remains stuck in a sideways channel. The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. That is not a plus. But just as we didn't know if yesterdays price action was option expiration related, we can say the same thing about today. There wasn't any really negative news to be used as an excuse for the decline. Yesterday the short term indicators for the S&P were turning up and today they have turned back down. The S&P is back below its 50 day moving average. The techncial picture here now argues for more downside going forward. Perhaps we will have better clarity after the Fed on Wednesday. Gold was up $11 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates rose. The XAU gained 2 1/4, while GDX was up 5/8. Volume was average here. GDX is not yet short term overbought but both GOLD and NEM are. We will look to purchase the GDX October calls on any decline in GDX from here. That's the best we can hope for at this point since we have already missed the ideal entry point for this trade. We are still believers in a rally for the gold shares here but will not chase it unless there is some kind of short term pullback. We have seen the signs that interest is picking up for the gold shares. There is an extra week in the October option cycle and that could work in this trade ideas favor as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and the short term indicators here have turned back up. The daily candlestick chart for the VIX looks like it wants to go higher. But there's always the chance that today was a one day wonder and we'll only know that as time moves on. For now the market will be waiting on the Fed next week. We'll go over the charts as usual this weekend but our minds are made up as far as trying the GDX October call trade if we get the chance. The option premiums for SPY will be high as we move into the October cycle. Europe and Asia were higher once again to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The big move showed up as projected by the McClellan oscillator as the Dow soared 331 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index remains in a sideways channel. The Dow outperformed today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. The inflation data came in hot and the market didn't care. The S&P 500 made it back above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators there are turning back up. Perhaps September won't be such a cruel month this year. But we've still got a couple of weeks to go. Not yet short term overbought for the S&P so perhaps we'll continue higher. Or todays positive price action could just be option expiration related. We'll continue to monitor the price action. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher, while interest rates were up a bit. The XAU gained 1 3/4, GDX was up 3/8. Volume remains light. Once again the gold shares are doing better than gold itself and that is bullish going forward. The short term indicators for GDX are at mid-range. My open order for the GDX October calls is still out there but this idea has been hanging around for a while now. It appears that we could simply have already missed this opportunity. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed at a new low for the year. That is bullish. The short term indicators are oversold and staying that way which is the indication of a rally. I'm not sure how long this conditon can persist but it's usually longer than you think. Not to mention that a market that rallies on what is perceived as bad news is bullish. So perhaps we're on our way to new recovery highs for the year. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see how expiration Friday goes to close out the week.

Another mixed bag today as the Dow fell 70 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still in a sideways channel. The overall market was positive, with both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posting small gains. The market is still undecided on which way to go. We did get a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two days. We'll see if that works tomorrow. The inflation data came in about where expected and the market bounced around a bit at the beginning. It spent the rest of the day moving sideways until bouncing around again in the final couple of hours. The S&P is looking for direction as it has been trading sideways for a week. The short term indicators are going sideways as well and are stuck at mid-range. Not sure what will get us going one way or the other but perhaps tomorrows economic data will give us a clue. Gold was off $4 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates slightly lower on the day. Rates did manage to drop from from earlier gains in the session. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume. The gold shares are hanging in there despite the drop in the precious metal. I think this bodes well going forward. My open order for the GDX October calls remains in place but at this rate it won't get filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX fell today and remains short term oversold. I'm still not sure what to expect here. Once again the market appears to be in a holding pattern. Maybe it's waiting for next weeks Fed meeting to really get going. Only 2 days left in the September option cycle so SPY trades will be on hold. We'll let the rest of the week play itself out and go from there. Europe and Asia finished lower with the exception of India. We'll see if we get that big move telegraphed by the McClellan oscillator tomorrow.

We saw some selling in the overall market ahead of tomorrows inflation data as the Dow fell 17 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving in a sideways channel. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ once again leading the way lower. That is not a good sign for the bulls. The S&P 500 remains below its 50 day moving average. The short term technicals here are mid-range. Although I do think that tomorrows inflation data may come in hot, it's a guessing game based on the current technical factors what will happen in the market tomorrow. Hence we remain on the sidelines with regards to the SPY. We'll wait to roll into the October option cycle for the next potential trade there. Gold fell $11 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates held steady. The XAU and GDX finished the day flat on very light volume. The fact that the gold shares didn't decline with gold itself is a positive. However with no volume there is no interest in this sector for now it seems. I still like trying the GDX October calls and my open order for them remains out there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that fits a down market. Still short term oversold here but not at an extreme. Not sure what to expect next here but volatility did pick up today. So it seems the market is holding its breath as it awaits tomorrows consumer inflation report. Thursday will bring producer prices and retail sales data. Plenty for stocks to chew on in the next couple of sessions. It was not a positive development for the market that Apple released its new phone today and it was met with a yawn. We'll just have to see where things go from here. Europe and Asia were mixed in last nights trade. On to Wednesday.

Options expiration week starts off with some buying as the Dow rose 87 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is still in a sideways configuration. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that's a plus for the bulls. The short term indicators for the major averages are starting to turn back up. Perhaps the positive options expiration week bias will be in effect. There's still plenty of economic data to sift through in the coming days. I'm considering the SPY September puts ahead of the inflation data due out on Wednesday. But this is more of a gut feel idea based on my belief that the data will come in hot. Technically the SPY is neither short term overbought or oversold. So perhaps the sidelines is a more prudent path to take when it comes to this idea for a trade. We'll see. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were steady for the most part. The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX gained 3/8. Volume was pretty light. The short term indicators are turning back up for GDX as well. My open order for the GDX October calls remains out there. Again, I might have to adjust the order depending on what happens the rest of this week. I still like this idea but we may be too late if the gold shares simply continue higher from here. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was a touch lower today. it remains short term oversold and below its 50 day moving average. Not sure what to expect next for the VIX. Some of our work points to higher stock prices coming this week and today confirms that prognosis. But there's still plenty of time left in the week with plenty of economic data to digest on the one hand. On the other there's only 4 days to go in the September option cycle so the risk in a potential trade for this week is very high. Never easy in this game. Europe up and Asia mixed overnight. We'll keep watch on tonights developments.

We tried to bounce today but it wasn't all that successful as the Dow rose 75 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues sideways. We opened higher but then trended down for the rest of the session to basically tread water on the day. There certainly doesn't seem like there is any interest from buyers lately. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 remain below their 50 day moving averages. The short term technical indicators for these two are now mid-range. So you could make a case that we could go either way from here. I'm still looking for a better bounce than what we saw today. The TRAN was lower again though. Only a week remains in the September option cycle. Still on the sidelines with regards to trading the SPY for now. Might try something ahead of the inflation data but we'll see. Gold, the US dollar and interest rates all ended the day flat. I guess they are trying to figure out where to go next. The XAU and GDX finished flat today as well on light volume. This is the kind of trendless trading day that we witnessed. The daily candlestick chart for GDX looks like it wants to head lower. The short term indicators here are beginning to move sideways. GDX is neither overbought or oversold on a daily bais at the moment. My open order for the GDX October calls remains out there. Might have to adjust it next week. The inflation data will probably get gold moving but which way is the question. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. It still looks like it wants to move down but I'd be guessing if I said that I knew what to expect here next. It does remain below its 50 day moving average. It was a quiet and negative short week for the major stock averages. Not sure what to expect next but I'm pretty sure that things will get moving after the inflation news. We'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual. Europe was up and Asia lower with the exception of India to finish out the week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A mixed bag today as the Dow managed a gain of 57 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still tracking sideways. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were lower today, with the NASDAQ leading the way by far. This is not a good sign for the bulls. The short term indicators for both of these indexes have turned lower. On a very short term basis we are oversold so a bounce within the next couple of sessions isn't out of the question. But the lack of volume is a concern as players remain on the sidelines ahead of next weeks inflation data. It's as if the summer doldrums arrived late this year. Gold finished flat on the session. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates slightly lower today. Both the XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. The short term indicators for GDX are still moving lower but are not yet oversold. MY open order for the GDX October calls remains out there. Might have to adjust it again or perhaps move to a different strike price. I'm still a fan of this idea for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was flat on the session and remains short term oversold. The daily candlestick chart here appears poised to head lower, which would be a plus for those long stocks. The VIX remains below its 50 day moving average and can remain oversold for some time. However we'll have to wait and see what it has in store for us this time around. Asia was generally lower and Europe mixed overnight. We'll close out the short and slow trading week tomorrow.

Sellers had the upper hand again today as the Dow lost 198 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is now heading sideways. Lower from the start today although the market did cut its losses in the final three hours. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is not a plus for the bulls. It wasn't a complete rout though so we'll see how it goes tomorrow. The short term indicators on the S&P 500 have now turned lower with plenty of room to continue. But I'm not exactly sure what's next for the market going forward. The Feds beige book was a non-event. We are going to stay on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Gold was off ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was flat and interest rates continued to rise. The XAU had a slight fractional loss, while GDX finished flat. Volume was light. My open order for the GDX October calls remains out there. The fact that the gold shares didn't drop with the loss in gold today should be a positive sign going forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but did come off of the worst levels on the session. Still short term oversold here but the indicators are pointing up which would imply more volatility going forward. Not sure where the VIX is headed next though. The market seems to be waiting around for something to get it going. What exactly that is, I don't know. So far this week seems more like summer rather than everyone back at their desks. But we'll see where we go from here. Europe was lower and Asia mixed in last nights trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Back to work Tuesday as the Dow fell 195 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to track sideways. The Dow led the way lower and that isn't the most bearish scenario. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 remain short term overbought here. They are both holding up for now but if things roll over here we might retest the recent lows. The Russell 2000 had a lousy session and it is sometimes the leader of things to come. The TRAN had a decent drop today as well. So we'll be keeping a close eye on what happens next. It is a light week for economic data. Gold slid $15 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 3 points, while GDX lost 5/8. Volume was almost average. The short term indicators for GDX have rolled over. I adjusted down my order for the GDX October calls. May adjust it again tomorrow if the gold shares continue to fall. We still like this idea but have to be careful as the overall market is in a negative seasonal time period. If the summation index were to roll over it will take stocks with it and the gold shares would most likely go along for the ride. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits a down market. Still short term oversold here. I'm not sure where the VIX is headed next. The Fed beige book is out tomorrow and might be a reason for the market to move. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Employment data came in just about where expected and the Dow rose 115 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Early strength was sold off and a couple of hours into the day we were negative. But the market spent the rest of the day trying to move higher. Our idea of buying the SPY puts on early strength would have had to be a pretty quick trade in order for it to work and that is not what we are looking for. Might try the SPY September puts at some point next week. The Dow leading the way today isn't the most bullish scenario as the NASDAQ posted a very slight loss. The S&P 500 had a small gain and remains short term overbought. It was a good week for equities but the volume was light and we do not trust light volume rallies. The summation index turning back up is a huge plus for the bulls though. Gold finished flat on the day and off of its best levels. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to turn lower. My open order for the GDX October calls remains out there as I still believe in this idea going forward for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower yet again today and is close to breaking below the 13 level. It remains short term oversold and looks like it wants to stay that way. This is another supporting factor for stocks at the moment. Less than two weeks to go in the September option cycle as we begin a long holiday weekend in the US. Summer will unofficially be over and everyone should be back at their desks on Tuesday. I don't have a good feel for where things are going to go but we are short term overbought for the major indices. However in rallies they simply stay that way. I'll be looking over the charts this weekend to try and come up with a game plan for the remaining September option cycle. Asia was generally higher and Europe generally lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

A pause in the upside for the Dow today as it fell 168 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving higher. The overall market fared better than the Dow, with the NASDAQ posting a small gain. Inflation data came in where expected. The S&P 500 has now reached overbought territory on some of its short term indicators. We do favor the SPY September puts on any strength tomorrow for a short term trade. Not sure if we'll try it or even get a chance. It may already be too late for the ideal entry. We'll have to see the reaction to the jobs report. Gold was off five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates slightly lower. The XAU slipped 1 1/3, while GDX lost 1/4. Volume remains light. The 50 day moving average has stopped the recent move higher in GDX for now. We'll keep our order for the GDX October calls out there. Mentally I'm still feeling a bit tired. The VIX continued lower which doesn't fit with a down market. Not sure what that means going forward but the VIX is short term oversold. We'll just have to wait and see what tomorrow has in store for us. It should be a get away day for some hoping to get the jump on a long holiday weekend. Everyone will be back at their desks on Tuesday. We'll see if the SPY puts are worth a try. Asia was lower with the exception of Japan and Europe followed suit with the exception of Germany. Beginning of month of September on Friday. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Continuing higher today but less dramatic as the Dow added 37 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is now pointing upwards but has just begun to turn around. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way and as long as it stays that way we remain positive going forward. The S&P 500 was higher today and the short term indicators are still moving up. Not quite short term overbought just yet here. We'll have to see the reaction to tomorrows inflation data. It's also the end of the month tomorrow. Sellers have disappeared for now but we know that can change. Gold was up another $6 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates held steady. Both the XAU and GDX finished flat on the session. Volume was light. My open order for the GDX October calls remains out there. GDX has made it back up to its 50 day moving average. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX was lower today and has gotten down to short term oversold. We'll see how long it stays that way. I did consider getting some SPY September puts today but a better entry point would be on sometime Friday if the market remains higher from now until then. We'll see what happens. One thing to remember about the recent four day run is that the volume has been pretty anemic. Now it that because traders are out on their last summer vacation or is this just a short covering rise? As time moves on we'll get the answer. Asia was generally higher and Europe slightly lower last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Moving higher as the Dow gained 292 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning back up. Once again the NASDAQ was the leader going higher and that's a plus for the bulls. Probably some short covering today as the S&P 500 closed above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are moving higher and not yet completely overbought. The bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart for the S&P failed. The short term down trend line has been broken to the upside and it's pretty safe to say that the August decline has ended. Whether or not we make a new recovery high remains to be seen. We will wait for a decent signal in order to try the SPY September options. Gold climbed $18 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU added another two points, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was almost average. I still have the open order for the GDX October calls out there but it's obvious that we've missed this move higher for the gold shares. Getting to short term overbought on GDX but not there yet. Another day like today would do it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and closed below its 50 day moving average. Short term oversold on the techncial indicators here but that doesn't mean that it can't stay that way. The low VIX is another area of positive support for the market. I think that unless we see some kind of dramatic turnaround for stocks before the end of the week that we will trend higher from here. Don't know where the liquidity is coming from but we will not argue with price. We'll also keep in mind that things can turn on a dime if the inflation or employment reports don't come in as expected. But with the summation index turning around back to the upside we've got to be looking for higher prices from here. Europe and Asia were positive as markets are moving up around the world. We'll see if the party continues tomorrow.

Starting the week on a positive note as the Dow gained 213 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index may finally be starting to try and turn around. The NASDAQ led the way higher. That's two plus days in a row for the S&P but that bearish engulfing candlestick still looms. Perhaps that pattern will fail but we are still below the 50 day moving average on the S&P 500. The short term indicators there are now mid-range or getting there. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. Gold was up $8 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose 2 3/4, while GDX was up over 1/2. Volume was light. It appears that we've missed this move higher in the gold shares. They are outperforming the metal itself and that is bullish. I did place an open order for the GDX October calls but it won't get filled unless we see a pullback. We'll certainly hope for the best but it appears that the train has already left the station for this idea. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with a positive stock market. Getting to short term oversold here but not completely there yet. The VIX is still above its 50 day moving average. Plenty of economic data for the market to sift through this week with inflation news on Thursday and the jobs report on Friday as the headliners. Not sure what to expect but there will be plenty of excuses for the markets to move. Volume remains light as we trade the last week in August. As I've said not everybody will be at their desks with the final summer flings taking place before the Labor day weekend. We will remain looking for the next trading signal. Europe and Asia were higher to begin the week as well. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

The Fed chairman had nothing new to say and the market used that as an excuse to move higher as the Dow gained 247 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving down. Could it be that yesterday was a washout to the downside on fears of the Fed? We'll know as time moves on. We still have that bearish engulfing pattern staring at us on the S&P 500 daily chart. At a minimum it implies at least sideways price action. The short term technical indicators have turned back up for the S&P. We have the final week of summer coming at us so perhaps not everyone will be at their desks next week. Inflation data and the jobs report are due. We'll also close out one month and open another. The technical picture for stocks isn't exactly clear cut at the moment. Gold was off around $6 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 1 1/4, while GDX shed around 1/4. Volume was light. I canceled my open order for the GDX September calls so it wouldn't be out there over the weekend. I'm still in favor of some gold share calls here but thinking that I might head out to the October option cycle. We'll see. The short term indicators for GDX are mid-range so I probably shouldn't be in any kind of hurry. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX sank today and that fits an up market. The short term indicators have turned back down and imply lower VIX readings to come. That would be supportive for the stock market if it comes to pass. I'm not exactly certain what's going on with stocks at the moment. But I do know that if we don't see a turnaround soon things will get ugly based on the location of the summation index to its zero line. WE'll have plenty to ponder as we check ut all the charts over the weekend. Asia was lower and Europe slightly higher to close out the trading week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A full fledged retreat today as the Dow fell 373 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. Not yet at the zero line here but on the way and we know what that means. Things could just fall apart. Hasn't happened yet and there's time to turn things around but I don't know what will. So much for my assumption that today would simply be a waiting game. Not sure exactly what's going on here but the market knows all. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that's a negative. We made it back to the 50 day moving average on the S&P 500 and quickly headed south. The option premiums on the SPY September puts were more than we wanted to pay for them even being far out of the money. The short term indicators here have now turned back down. The daily candlestick chart for the S&P has a bearish engulfing pattern now. So it appears that we are heading lower and may take out the recent lows. We'll see what happens after the Fed speech tomorrow. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were up a touch. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. The gold shares seem to be holding in there despite todays stock market losses. I re-entered my order for the GDX September calls. Not exactly sure this is the right idea here but we'll see what happens. If the overall market does tank the gold shares will probably go along for the ride. We'll keep a close eye on it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX turned back up and so did its short term indicators. The daily candlestick chart here has a bullish engulfing pattern implying higher prices for the VIX going forward which would imply more volatility. It is still below the 200 day moving average though and the important 20 level. The short term indicators here are still close to mid-range. Interesting times as we enter late summer. Asia up and Europe down in last nights trading action. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Buyers returned to the marketplace today as the Dow added 184 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index continues down. The NASDAQ is leading the way and was up over 200 points again. It has broken through its short term down trend line. The only caveat is the light volume. The S&P 500 is breaking through its short term down trend line as well. The short term indicators here are now moving up with room to go higher. I'm not completely sold on the down trend coming to an end here but it is certainly possible. A lot of the technical indicators were blown out to the downside despite the not so big decline that has taken place. We'll wait and see how things look going forward. Almost back up to the 50 day moving average on the S&P. Gold found buyers as well, the futures were up twenty bucks. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU climbed 3 1/2, while GDX was up over 3/4. Volume was good to the upside. It looks like we missed the GDX call trade here and I canceled my open order. However we'd be willing to try the calls here if we get some kind of pullback in the near term. The better volume today shows that there may finally be some interest in owning the gold shares again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators have turned down. This implies that stocks will continue to rise from here but the indicators are at the mid-range level. To me that means that they could go either way from here. A lot will be determined by the market reaction to the Fed chairmans speech on Friday. I'd expect tomorrow to be a waiting game. Asia and Europe were higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

The Dow was one of the weakest performers on the day as it fell 174 ponts on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. The S&P 500 opened higher and closed lower for a one day downside reversal. The S&P remains short term oversold but not completely so. The NASDAQ managed a small gain on the session so all hope is not lost for the bulls. I thought we would see a better bounce in stocks from the oversold condition but this is what we have to work with so far. We'll continue to see if the S&P can make it back near the 445 level and then take a hard look at the SPY September puts there. Looks like we could just be in a holding pattern until Fridays Fed chairmans speech. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates held steady. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. I'm thinking about canceling my open order for the GDX September calls and moving to a lower strike price. We'll see. GDX still hasn't made it down to the 27 level which would be the ideal target to put this call trade on. However it's possible that a temporary bottom is in place. The light volume is a concern though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with a lower overall market. The short term indicators here are heading towards mid-range now. I'm not getting a good reading on what's next for the VIX. So it appears that we are just waiting for Friday at this point. Europe and Asia were both up overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Bouncing higher today but mostly in the overall market as the Dow was down 37 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 had decent gains on the session with the NASDAQ up over 200 points. That's a plus for the market. The short term indicators have turned back up for these two indices. Now the question is whether this is the beginning of a real advance or just a dead cat bounce? I suppose you could make a case for either one. Just rolling into the September option cycle so premiums are high. We've got the Fed chairman making a speech on Friday but that seems pretty far off right now. I guess we'll see if the SPY makes it back to its 50 day moving avergae and take it from there. That comes in at the 444 level along with a short term down trend line. There are more bears out there now so trying the SPY puts isn't as sure as it was in the August option cycle. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was just a touch lower and interest rates rose. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. My order is still out there for the GDX September calls. Not sure if I should just leave it, adjust it or just forget about it. The gold shares remain short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today. The short term indicators here have stalled but they are still in overbought territory. Still below the 200 day moving average here. I suppose that if the market continues higher from here on light volume we will consider the SPY puts ahead of Fridays Fed chairman speech. But we all know that the market rarely cooperates with our best laid plans. If we could get said rally and the McClellan oscillator back to the zero line, that would be the ideal set up. We'll see. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

We had a gap lower at the open and the market spent the rest of the day trying to make up the lost ground. The Dow rose 25 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving down. Today seemed like a day of squaring positions on option expiration Friday. The technical picture hasn't changed. Oversold and staying that way. We will see a decent bounce on Monday or Tuesday in my humble opinion. What happens after that will determine how fast we make it down to 4200 on the S&P 500. 4200-4100 is where the next area of support lies for the S&P. My guess is that is where we are heading. We still like the SPY September puts at some point but we'd like to see some kind of relief rally to take the position. But markets rarely cooperate. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. I adjusted down my open order for the GDX September calls again. GDX is still a half a point away from our target of 27. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today as it fell back from its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators here are starting to roll over and it looks like at least a short term top has been put in for the VIX. That would fit in with our prognosis of some kind of bounce early next week. We'll see. Just rolling into the September option cycle so premiums will be high. We aren't looking for the beginning of a sustained rally but perhaps a snap back to the recent broken up trend line. That could set us up for the September puts. Might just be wishful thinking. We'll check the charts over the weekend as usual. Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon in the summer and time for a break.

Another day, another loser as the Dow fell 290 points on summer average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues down. Getting quite oversold on the McClellan oscillator so some kind of bounce is due. Might have to wait until next week for that. It has been an orderly decline so far as we haven't had any super negative sessions yet. Also waiting for the final heavy volume wash out that occurs at the end of these moves. Don't know when we'll get that. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way lower and that fact remains a negative for the market. All the major averages are now below their 50 day moving averages. Oversold, staying that way and that is becoming an everyday siren song. It's a buyers boycott with no end in sight at the moment. We still want to attempt the SPY September puts after we see some kind of relief rally. But we missed this move lower as our work pointed us in the wrong short term direction this time around looking for the SPY calls during expiration week. We'll keep moving forward though. Gold was off another ten bucks today. The US dollar finished little changed as did interest rates. Both the XAU and GDX took fractional losses on light volume. I adjusted down my order for the GDX September calls. Only a half a point away from 27 on GDX so we'll see if it makes it down there. Oversold for gold itself and the gold shares. The fundamental picture there is bearish as well. We still believe in the technicals though and figure this is as good a time as any to try the GDX call trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up and that fits with todays negative price action. Just about short term overbought on the VIX and another day like today will do it. That's another reason to suspect that we'll see some kind of bounce relatively soon. How that bounce actually goes will tell us a lot about just how weak things are right now. Europe and Asia were lower as selling is going on around the globe. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Sellers continue to have the upper hand as the Dow fell 180 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that's a negative. Now it appears that we'll just having selling into the expiration on Friday as buyers seem unwilling to step up to the plate. Still short term oversold and staying that way for the major averages. It looks like we missed our chance for the SPY August puts this time around. We'll be looking for the September puts going forward. But we'll have to at least wait for some kind of bounce. However the path of least resistance is lower until proven otherwise. Gold was off a dozen on the futures. The US dollar continues to climb along with interest rates. The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume remains very light here as there is no interest in buying the gold shares. Short term oversold on all the indicators for GDX. I did place an overnight order for the GDX September calls and I'm leaving it out there. If GDX gets down to 27 this order should be filled. If we don't try the calls here with an obvious oversold condition then when would we try them? But the 50 day moving average is crossing below the 200 day moving average and that is the implied kiss of death for GDX. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today. Not yet overbought here so there is still room for the VIX to advance. The path of least resistance here seems to be up which would imply more volatility. We are in the midst of a summer swoon in the stock market. How low will it go? We can make a case for 4200 on the S&P 500 but hopefully not in a straight line. As usual the market knows much more than we do. Foreign markets closed generally lower. We'll see if the selling continues tomorrow.

The market sold off today as the Dow fell 361 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. Whatever ideas that I had about the SPY August calls appear to be wrong but we'll see. The S&P closed right at or just below its daily up trend line from March. Considering the NASDAQ has already penetrated this line it would make sense for the S&P 500 to follow. Not sure what's going on here but we'll follow the summation index and that calls for lower prices. Perhaps we'll get an expiration week bounce but not at the rate we're going. Our work had originally called for the close this week to be around 451 on the SPY. That idea may be out the window. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P remain short term oversold and staying that way. That's not a good sign for the bulls. However we will get an oversold bounce at some point. When that point will occur is the question. Gold was down ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar and interest rates were slightly higher. The XAU lost 3 1/4, while GDX dropped 3/4. Volume was slightly below average but a pick up from what we've seen lately. 27 is the number that we're looking for on GDX. I'm considering placing an overnight order for the September calls there in case we see a big drop tomorrow in GDX. GDX is oversold on a daily and weekly basis. Mentally I'm feeling OK but I must admit the market action so far this week has me second guessing things. I had thought that perhaps things would be calm this week. Wrong. The VIX was up today and that certainly fits with a down market. The short term indicators are now moving up and still have room to go higher before reaching overbought. The daily candlestick chart looks like it wants to go higher. So perhaps we'll see more selling tomorrow. No summer doldrums to be seen. Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Today had summer Monday written all over it as the Dow was up 26 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 outperformed the Dow. The short term indicators for the NASDAQ and the S&P have both turned up but remain in oversold territory. I did place an order for the SPY August calls overnight but it wasn't filled. We needed to see some weakness today to really get this trade and we only got a little on the open. The market rarely cooperates. We might get a chance later in the week to try this again but time would be running out. It would have been an in on Monday and out on Tuesday type of trade because we are looking for weakness as the week goes on. However we'll just have to move on and look for the next opportunity. Gold was off $7 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were up slightly. The XAU was down 1 2/3, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume remains pretty light here as interest in the gold shares is lacking. The gold shares did come back from their worst levels of the day though. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was down just a bit today. The short term indicators here are mid-range. The VIX does remain above its 50 day moving average. Options expiration week is here. We're looking for strength early in the week, weakness in the middle followed by buying towards the end. That's the best guess from here. It may be uneventful as we are in the middle of August. There's still some earnings reports to trickle in but most of that is out of the way. Europe was generally up and Asia lower to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight devleopments.

A mixed market to close out the week as the Dow gained 105 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues lower. Inflation data came in where expected and there really wasn't much of a market reaction. The overall market was lower with the NASDAQ the downside leader. The NASDAQ closed below its 50 day moving average and also below the up trend line that had been in place since March. Those are not positive developments. The S&P 500 remains above its up trend line from the spring but it is probably just a matter of time before it breaks it. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P remain short term oversold. We took a look at the SPY September puts and the premiums are sky high. But that's probably the place to be. That said we are now looking at a different trade next week involving the SPY August calls. We are considering buying weakness on Monday for a short term trade. Will consider this idea over the weekend. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up almost 1 1/4, while GDX added 1/4. Volume remains very light here. The short term indicators for GDX have curled back up. Should be try the August calls here with only a week to go? Probably not as the volume here hasn't been up to snuff lately. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today which doesn't fit well with a mixed market. However the short term indicators here are trending down and the daily candlestick chart looks like it wants to go lower. That would be another reason to try the SPY calls in the near term if the lower VIX trend continues. But we'll have to go over the charts this weekend to see if trying calls is even worth the risk because the bears have clearly taken over for now. That said, some of our indicators are saying some kind of bounce would be due if Monday is negative. So we'll see. Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of Japan to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Well, there is something going on in the markets we just don't know what. The Dow rose 52 points on better than average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving down. The inflation data came in light and the the market had a gap higher at the open. The rally lasted all of half an hour and sellers once again took over. With two hours to go we were back in negative territory. Things went back and forth from there before the close. The NASDAQ managed to hold on to its daily up trend line. Both it and the S&P 500 remain short term oversold. I think that we may have to go out to the SPY September option cycle to try the puts here. But we'll have to wait and see how the week finishes. Gold was off $4 on the futures. The US dollar ened higher after being down early. Interest rates were up despite the tame inflation numbers. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume. Still short term oversold on GDX. Will we consider trading the GDX calls here with about a week to go in the August option cycle? We'll see. Mentally I'm in a bit of a quandary as we want to try the SPY puts but cannot seem to time the entry. The VIX was all over the place and finished little changed. The short term indicators here are starting to curl back up which would imply more selling and volatility on the way. The market always knows more than we do. The recent erratic price action has a reason that we do not know but that will eventually become apparent to all. By then it will be too late. Most likely we will let tomorrow go by and try to figure things out over the weekend. Europe and Asia had gains overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

The Dow headed lower before tomorrows inflation data as it lost 191 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ led the way down which has been the case lately. It's landed on its 50 day moving average. The up trend line here on the daily chart is where the index lies now. Tomorrow will be important to see if things hold up here for the NASDAQ. The S&P 500 is almost to the same support areas. Both of these major indices are short term oversold but that doesn't mean they won't stay that way. We'd like to see stocks move up from here in an effort to buy the SPY August puts early next week. But the market rarely cooperates. Gold was off another ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed along with interest rates. The XAU was off 1/2, while GDX rose a nickel. Volume remains extremely light here. Halfway through the session I did place an order for the GDX August calls but canceled it near the close. The gold shares holding steady with a falling gold price is bullish. GDX is also short term oversold. But I wasn't so convinced in this idea to try it a higher price than I wanted to pay. If the inflation data comes in light I would expect gold and the gold shares to benefit. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced around today like the overall market and ended unchanged. I'm not sure where it goes from here. It was looking positive before we had the final hour market swoon. The only thing that I can say with any certainty is that the bullish run up that we had for June and July is history. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Sellers returned today but it wasn't a bad as it could have been. The Dow fell 158 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. We opened with a gap down and the Dow was off over 450 just an hour and a half in. But we made steady upward progress from there to finish where we did. The NASDAQ was the leader going south and that's a negative. The S&P 500 touched its lower Bollinger band and went up from there. It remains short term oversold. I still like the SPY August puts at some point but it looks like we might see a small rally from here. Or not as the market is trying to make up its mind. We'll stay on the sidelines for now. Gold fell ten dollars on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dipped a little. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses once again on very light volume. GDX remains short term oversold and I thought about getting some calls there today. The gold shares are holding up well with the price of gold dropping and that's always a plus. If the inflation data this week comes in weaker than expected we should see gold move higher. However that's a big if. Had I not had so many losing trades in GDX so far this year I might be inclined to give the calls another shot. We'll just watch and wait here as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but fell back from its highest levels on the session. Still overbought here but not to an extreme. The daily candlestick chart for the VIX looks like it wants to head back down. However this indicator can be hard for me to gauge sometimes. I'd expect the markets to be in a holding pattern tomorrow ahead of the coming inflation news. Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of Japan. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Buyers returned to the game as the Dow gained 407 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The Dow was the leader today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. We were pretty short term oversold after Fridays price action so a bounce was in the cards. What happens moving forward is what we're concerned about. I still like the SPY August put idea but when to buy them is the question. Before or after the inflation data? If we continue higher into the close on Wedneady I'll probably try them then. If not the picture isn't as clear. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned back up with plenty of room to go higher. The Bollinger bands are starting to get closer together on the S&P daily chart as well. Are we heading back to new recent highs for the stock indexes? Always plenty of questions in the game. Gold was off five bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates ticked up. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume. Barrick Gold releases its earnings tomorrow. That will influence GDX one way or the other. We're still considering the GDX September calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with an up market. The short term technical indicators here have turned back down. It's another reason that there could be more gains for stocks in the near future. But we'll have to wait and see as things don't usually travel in a straight line. I may place an open order for the SPY August puts tonight but perhaps waiting until Wednesday is the better plan. Asia and Europe started the week mixed. We'll see if there is any follow through buying tomorrow.

We had a one day reversal to the downside as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 150 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving lower. The jobs report came in where expected and we opened with a gap higher and then fell back. The market rallied good from there before turning around mid-session and dropping into the close. The S&P led the way lower. Short term oversold there now on some of the indicators. We are also pretty oversold on some of the other technical signals that we track. That said it appears today was our chance to purchase the SPY August puts and we did not. I still might be willing to give this idea a try next week if we see some kind of rally early in the week. But the tone of the market has changed and sellers have taken over. Gold rose $7 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX gained about 1/3. Volume was light. The gold shares are short term oversold but I sold my GDX August calls anyway. It was an 80% loss. Not a lot of money involved but this trade was ill timed. The volume here on the up days is pretty light so there isn't any real interest in owning the gold shares here. GDX is still holding on to its 50 week moving average though. I'll perhaps consider going out to the September option cycle here but if the market drops more as we suspect it will, the gold shares will follow. Mentally I'm feeling OK despite another losing trade. Should have used a stop loss order there. The VIX was up today and remains short term overbought. Still below the 20 level here. If the VIX can work off the overbought condition we may have a chance to try the SPY August puts next week. My hope would be to purchase some SPY puts ahead of the inflation data due out on Thursday and Friday. Up trend lines remain intact on the daily charts for the major averages. But they won't hold up if the decline continues from here. Europe and Asia were higher to close out the week. We'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Slight downside follow through to yesterdays debacle as the Dow fell 66 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving lower. Just waiting for tomorrows employment report seemed to be the theme of the day. Tomorrow will be an important day. If the market continues to sell off then we probably won't get a chance to buy the SPY August puts. However if we manage to pull off a rally we'll maybe have a shot at this idea early next week. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are still pointing down though. The longer term trend lines on the daily charts for the major averages remain in place. Gold was off five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates rose. The XAU had a fractional loss, while GDX was flat. Volume was light. I remain in the losing GDX August call trade for now. GDX is now short term oversold so a bounce is possible but it will depend on the reaction to tomorrows data. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with a slightly down market. The short term indicators are trying to roll over here which would support the bulls if they are successful. I'm not sure what's next here for the VIX. It looks like AMZN is up and AAPL is down on the earnings after the bell. Europe and Asia continued lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The market got clobbered today as the US debt was downgraded by one of the rating agencies. The Dow fell 348 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to move down. The NASDAQ led the way lower and was off over 2%. That's a negative. The S&P 500 had a gap lower at the open and just kept on falling. The short term indicators there have dropped with room to go lower. Obviously we've missed the best entry point for the SPY August puts but we still believe in that idea. We'll be looking for some kind of snapback move to get the puts in the coming days. The longer term up trend line for the S&P comes in at 4400 and that is the target for the move lower. Gold fell $7 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished mixed. The gold shares followed the overall market lower which was what we feared since I own the GDX August calls. The XAU dropped 3 1/2, while GDX lost almost a point. Volume was above average again to the downside. My GDX August calls are dead and I'll be looking to exit on any kind of snapback here as well. GDX is now short term oversold. It did breach the 30 level so the potential inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart has been negated. Probably should have just sold the GDX calls today and taken the loss but there's a chance that the jobs report comes in light. That would provide a reason for a bounce in gold and the overall market in theory. This trade went from a small winner on Monday to a loser at the close today. That's just how it goes in the game sometimes. Should have just focussed on the S&P but hindsight is never wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked today and that's not a surprise given the decline. Not completely short term overbought here yet but one more down day would do it. Closed above the 50 day moving average here and if it stays above it there will most likely be more selling. Europe and Asia got smashed overnight as well. We'll see if the tech earnings can turn things around tomorrow.

A mixed bag today as the Dow rose 71 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to tracking sideways. The overall market was weaker than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 lower. The S&P is still short term overbought but the indicators are beginning to roll over. I still favor the SPY August puts at some point. As I've said the timing will have to be spot on and we don't have a clear signal just yet. It wasn't exactly a great start to the month for stocks but we'll see how the rest of the week plays out. Gold got dumped as the futures were off $27. The US dollar was higher along with longer term interest rates. The XAU lost 4 1/2, while GDX shed over 1 1/8. Volume was above average to the downside. GDX is getting short term oversold but not all the way there yet. Price needs to stay above the 30 level or the inverse head an shoulders pattern here will be negated. Unfortunately for me it doesn't look like 30 will hold after todays price action. My GDX August calls are back in the red. Had a chance at a small profit yesterday and in retrospect probably should have taken it. If our scenario of a drop in equity prices is correct, the gold shares will most likely go with them. Even though there are still over 2 weeks left in the August option cycle this GDX trade now doesn't look like the right idea. The volume pattern here in the near term looks negative. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that fits with the overall lower market. The short term technical indicators here are now mid-range and so they could go either way. Might wait until Fridays employment report to decide. I'm not sure which way the VIX will go. Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of Japan. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Just another summer Monday as the Dow gained 100 points on end of the month good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving back up. End of the month tribulations today as well. A day of hanging around really as we wait for the next catalyst to get things moving one way or the other. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. We are sticking with our view that the August SPY puts will be the next idea here. When to purchase them remains the question. Perhaps we'll see some beginning of the month money flows into stocks tomorrow. We'll stay patient for now. Gold was up $4 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were steady. The XAU gained 2 3/4, while GDX added 2/3. Volume was light. Both the XAU and GDX finished off of their best levels on the session and that's not a positive. The inverse head and shoulders pattern for GDX remains intact but we'll need to see a rise from here on good volume to be believers. Hasn't happened yet. My GDX August calls have swung to a small profit. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today which doesn't fit with a positive day for stocks. The short term indicators here have turned up which implies some selling on the horizon. We'll see. We still have to sift through earnings this week and the jobs report on Friday. Asia was up and Europe mixed to complete the trading month. We'll check out how the market begins the month of August tomorrow.

Back to upside today as the inflation data come in better than expected. The Dow gained 176 points on about average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ led the way and that remains a plus. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. There was no downside follow through from yesterdays slide so perhaps the rally will continue. However we remain ready to purchase the SPY August puts. The timing here will be the key as we follow our indicators and signals. Patient for now. Gold was up over $50 on the futures but that was an anomaly because the futures moved into the next quarterly cycle. The continuous contract gained $15. The US dollar was bit lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/3. Volume was light. My GDX August calls are still losers but just not as much. The potential inverse head and shoulders pattern for GDX is barely intact. We would have to see gains from here to make it valid. It will depend on what transpires next week but I'm not so sure that gold is going to rally here. The technical picture is mixed at best and I don't see a catalyst for gains on the horizon. I'll consider the path to take over the weekend. There is still 3 weeks to go in the August option cycle. However if the market turns down soon as we suspect, the gold shares will most likely follow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and that fits with todays gains. Still short term oversold as it has been for a couple weeks. Below the 50 day moving average here as well. The VIX implies more gains for stocks at the moment. Yesterdays decline in the market appears to be a one day wonder after todays price action. But we'll see how things progress going forward. We've got the end of the month on Monday and then the beginning of August. Plenty of economic data to digest including Fridays jobs report. We'll go over the charts this weekend and try to come up with a game plan. Asia was mixed and Europe barely higher to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We saw an incredible one day reversal to the downside as the market opened with a huge gap up to start the day and then sold off to end with a decent loss. The Dow broke its winning streak and fell 237 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. This should start the summation index moving sideways. GDP came in better than expected and provided a boost at the open. We are not sure if this is the final top for the S&P 500 on this rally but it could be. We will be hoping for a move back towards todays highs so that we can purchase the SPY August puts. It already may be too late if we continue to simply fall from here. The short term indicators for the S&P have now rolled over. There is plenty of room for them to move lower. One day doesn't make a trend though so we'll have to wait and see where we go from here. Gold got whacked as the futures fell $26 on the futures. The US dollar soared and interest rates were up. The XAU dropped over 4 3/4, while GDX lost 1 1/4. Volume was heavy to the downside. My open order for the GDX August calls got filled and now I'm not sure if I want this trade. It is already showing a loss. The short term indicators here have rolled back down with room to go lower. GDX also closed below its 50 day moving average. The potentail inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart here looks like it is going to fail. Only a quick reversal back to the upside can save it tomorrow. That is wishful thinking. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up today and that makes sense given the market decline. The short term indicators here have started to rise. The VIX does remain below its 50 day moving average for now. Well we're in the next trade and not really feeling good about it. Plenty of time remains in the August option cycle but todays price action in the gold shares was pretty negative. We've got inflation data out tomorrow and if it comes in hot I'd expect gold to continue to fall. Perhaps the Bank of Japan can save us tonight by adjusting their interest rate policy but that's a longshot at this point. Europe was up and Asia was generally higher as well last night. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

It's now a bakers dozen for the Dow as it rose for the 13th day in a row. The most watched index gained 82 points on about summer average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The Fed raised rates as expected but the market didn't move around much until the Fed chairman started his speech. Up, down and back up was the pattern until the close. The S&P 500 finished basically unchanged and the NASDAQ posted a small loss. The technical conditions remain the same as the S&P continues to be short term overbought. We are in a market atmosphere that simply does not want to go down. This is supported by the index option premiums that remain skewed higher for the calls. Yes, we still like the August SPY puts at some point in the monthly cycle. But for now the bulls are in charge. Gold was up $11 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were down. This all occured despite the rise in rates from the Fed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. My open order for the GDX August calls is still out there. The inverse head and shoulders pattern remains intact on the GDX daily chart. I will probably have to adjust the GDX call order that I have if I want it to be filled. However I'm not 100% sold on this idea because the pattern could fail. Getting to mid-range on the short term indicators for GDX now. The trading is never easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is heading for the lowest level on the year. Short term oversold and staying that way on the indicators here. It was a pretty good drop in the VIX without a huge rally in stocks today. Not sure what that means going forward. We've still got GDP tomorrow and inflation data on Friday to sift through. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep watch on tonights headlines.

Make it an even dozen up days in a row as the Dow gained 26 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving up. The Dow is getting about as far away form its 50 day moving average than it can get. This won't end well. However when it ends is up for debate. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that's a plus. The S&P 500 is short term overbought and staying that way. We've got the Fed tomorrow but the rate hike anticipated is already a foregone conclusion. We'll have to see how the market reacts though. Overdue for some kind of pullback to be sure. We still favor the SPY August puts and maybe should already own them. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were a bit higher. The XAU was up 1 7/8, while GDX added 1/2. Volume remains light here. I still have an open order out for the GDX August calls. The potential inverse head and shoulders pattern on the GDX daily chart still has a chance to be valid. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished basically unchanged on the session and its technical condition remains the same. We'll see how it reacts to the Fed tomorrow as well. Stocks have been going up now for so long that I would not expect this rally to last that much longer. But markets go where they want and we cannot fight the flow of money here. Asia and Europe were generally higher overnight. We'll see what the Fed has to say and how the market responds tomorrow.

Seems like there is just no stopping the Dow as it starts off the week with a gain of 183 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues up. The Dow was the outperformer on the day. We remain short term overbought on the S&P 500. We've got plenty of earnings due this week and of course the Fed on Wednesday. 2nd quarter GDP on Thursday and inflation data on Friday. So there will be plenty of reasons for the markets to move. No time for the summer doldrums this week. I still favor the SPY August puts at some point but probably won't be getting them this week. We'll see. Gold dropped $10 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. Both the XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume. There is a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart for GDX. The short term technical indicators there are mid-range but pointing down. I did place an open order for the GDX August calls overnight and I'm leaving it out there. The measuring objective for the head and shoulders would be 36 if the pattern pans out. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which doesn't fit with higher stock prices. Remaining short term oversold on most of the indicators here. The VIX is still bullish with its very low readings. It has remained pretty far from its 200 day moving average for weeks. I suppose we'll just watch and wait for now. Not sure what to expect with regards to the market reaction to the Fed. I can say for sure that the Dow will not go straight up forever and when it ends it probably won't be pretty. Asia was mixed and Europe flat to start the trading week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Expiration Friday in the summer and it felt just like it. We opened with a gap higher and then proceded to trade sideways for the rest of the session. The Dow did manage to keep its winning streak alive as it gained just a couple of points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is still moving up. The S&P 500 finished basically flat on the day. It remains short term overbought. We still favor the August puts there at some point going forward. The NASDAQ was lower but not to the degree that it declined yesterday. I'm in the cautious camp here as the Dow has gone straight up and we know that kind of price action never ends well. Gold was off $6 on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates held steady. The XAU and GDX were mixed with slight fractional moves on very light volume. I'm still considering the GDX August calls but if the overall market heads south it might take the gold shares with it. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and is still short term oversold. The Bollinger bands are starting to contract here again. It is another reason to be careful on the long side here because we could see a return of volatility. But we'll go over things on the weekend and take it from there. We've got the Fed next week and that should provide some market movement. Plus we've still got to sift through the ongoing earnings reports. Options premiums will be elevated since we are just moving into the August cycle. But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

There was a negative tone to the market today but that didn't stop the Dow from rising 164 points on light volume. That's the ninth day of gains in a row. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were lower on the session, with the NASDAQ off 2%. The short term indicators there have rolled over. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are still overbought but starting to curl over. With only a day left in the July option cycle I did sell the SPY puts that I bought yesterday. The exit was OK based on todays closing prices. The risk of holding on to them was more than I wanted to take. However if we see follow through selling tomorrow the results of course would be better. The gain was 160%. I don't usually succeed with the short term trades but this one was an exception. We are also still looking at the SPY August puts as well. Gold was lower by $9 on the futures. The US dollar was up along with interest rates. The XAU lost 3 points and GDX fell a point. Volume was almost average. NEM sold off on its earnings report. I canceled the open order for the GDX August calls that was out there. I still think that idea might work but at a lower strike price. Mentally I'm feeling better after a winning trade but must guard against being overconfident just becase one of our ideas worked out. Win or lose you've got to move on. The VIX was up today and that fits with the overall market heading lower. Still short term oversold for most of the indicators here. Expiration Friday on tomorrows agenda and we will most likely let that day go by without a trade before the weekend. Can the Dow make it ten days in a row to the plus side? Stay tuned. Europe up and Asia down in last nights trade. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

It seems like a market that just won't go down as the Dow gained 109 points on what now passes for average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Once again the Dow was the percentage leader to the upside. That's 8 days in a row higher for the Dow. It won't last forever but we also don't know when it will end. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and staying there. I did place an overnight order for the July SPY puts and it got filled. The entry could have been timed a little better. It is actually showing a slight profit after moving back and forth all day. This is certainly a risky venture and I should be out of it tomorrow, win or lose. Gold was up a buck today on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU was little changed, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was very light here again. I still have the open order out there for the GDX August calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which doesn't fit with an up market. Still short term oversold here but the indicators are trying to turn back up. Not sure what to expect here next with regards to the VIX. We're in the next trade and it is short term to be sure. Will we hold it into expiration Friday? Tomorrows market movement will hopefully provide some answers. Europe and Asia were generally higher in todays trade. We'll keep an eye on the markets overnight.

Powering higher now into options expiration week as the Dow soared 366 points on close to average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues up. The Dow led the way today. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two sessions and we got that move today. Still short term overbought and staying that way for the S&P 500. Do we dare try the SPY July puts in the face of this strength? Perhaps. Some of the technical readings are at or near extremes. Obviously that can't go on forever. But with only 3 days to go in the July option cycle the risk would be way above normal. That said we might give this idea a try on strength tomorrow. However blow off tops like this can last longer than you think. Money is finding a home in stocks. Gold rallied as the futures were up $25. The US dollar was slightly higher and bonds finished little changed. The XAU rose 2 1/3, while GDX added almost 2/3. Volume was about average. I still have the open order out there for the GDX August calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that coincides with an up market. Still short term oversold here but not at extremes. So we will look over things tonight and ponder whether or not we want to take the risk on an SPY option trade with only 3 days to go. The timing in would be crucial of course but it also wouldn't matter if the market just stays higher into Fridays expiration. But I don't think that it will. Asia was mixed again and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Monday in the summer is what we got today as the Dow rose 76 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving up. The overall market was stronger than the Dow again and led by the NASDAQ. That's a plus. I'm still looking at the SPY puts here as the S&P 500 remains short term overbought and a case can still be made for a negative RSI divergence on the daily chart. But with only 4 days left in the July option cycle the timing would have to be spot on. I'm not sure that I can accomplish that but I'm looking at it. The short term trades are usually not in my frame of mind but there are exceptions. Gold was off five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was flat along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX finished little changed on very light volume. They were up from the worst levels on the session. My open order for the GDX August calls remains out there. Here too I'm considering the GDX July calls with only 4 days to go. NEM reports earnings on Thursday so I'll have two more days to decide if I want to take the risk. The gold shares are short term overbought here though but I still think this is a move higher worth chasing. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today which doesn't fit with higher stock prices. Still short term oversold here. Plenty of earnings on tap this week so there will be excuses for the markets to move. Although I have a couple of trade ideas I'm not exactly sure what to do. Perhaps things will get clearer as the week progresses. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly lower to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

A mixed bag to end a positive week for stocks as the Dow rose 113 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative though. The summation index continues up. The overall market was weaker than the Dow but it wasn't any kind of severe decline. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 showed losses on the session. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. I'm now looking at the SPY August puts as a potential next trade. Once again the S&P is getting far away from its 50 day moving average. Plus I can still make the case for the negative RSI divergence unless it begins to move higher. I'll consider it some more over the weekend. Gold was off $4 on the futures. The US dollar had a slight gain and interest rates ticked up. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. I'm also now considering the GDX July calls next week even though it is short term overbought. I'm thinking that perhaps GDX can make it up to resistance at 33 1/2 by next Friday. The weekly chart here looks promising to the long side so the August calls are still part of the plan as well. Again, it's another set of ideas to ponder over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with an overall lower market. Almost completely short term oversold here. Not sure what's next for the VIX. Option expiration week on tap and I'm wondering if it will have the usual positive bias. We have yet to see the summer doldrums kick in for the market and if they do it won't benefit the options speculation. That much we can be sure of. We'll go over the charts as usual this weekend and try to come up with a game plan for next week. Asia was up and Europe generally lower to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Up, up and away we go as the Dow gained 47 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. Once again the overall market performed much better than the Dow as we have seen a broad based rally. Todays inflation data was tame and buyers took over from the start with a gap higher on the open. Now we are pretty short term overbought for the S&P 500 on the daily chart. That doesn't mean that we can't go higher but the pace of the rise will probably slow down. The NASDAQ is in the lead by a wide margin and that's bullish. The contracting Bollinger bands here imply this is a move that will go higher than you think. We'll enjoy the ride and see just how far it can go. Perhaps things will run up into option expiration next Friday. We are getting pretty far from the 50 week moving averages for some of the major stock indices and they are medium term overbought. But that doesn't seem to be a concern for now. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar continues to drop along with interest rates. The XAU gained 1 1/8, while GDX was up 1/3. Volume was lighter. The gold shares are short term overbought as well. I do have an open order out for the GDX August calls. My guess is that the gold shares will follow the stock market higher here. Keep in mind that we've already missed the ideal entry point for getting the calls here. We will try and get positioned on a pullback in the gold shares if we get one. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was actually up a touch today despite the overall rally for stocks. Not sure what that means. The short term indicators for the VIX are neither overbought or oversold. We are still keeping an eye on natural gas but will now be trading UNG since BOIL had a 20 to 1 reverse stock split. Europe and Asia were both up as it's a stock market party around the world. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Tame inflation data led to rally as the Dow gained 86 points on loght volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. Getting short term overbought on the S&P 500 and even with todays stellar gains there is still a potential negative RSI divergence on the S&P daily chart. Another up day tomorrow would negate that. The tight Bollinger bands on the NASDAQ seem to have it breaking out to the upside after todays price action. We are looking for the summer rally to continue. Gold took off higher as the futures gained $26. The US dollar got crushed and interest rates dropped. The XAU climbed 6 1/3, while GDX gained almost 1 2/3. Volume was heavy to the upside. The rally in the gold shares is for real. I placed a couple of orders for the July and August GDX calls in case there's a pullback. This is a move higher that can be chased in my opinion. Price and volume tell the story. The fact that the Japanese yen has started to rise cannot be overlooked as gold sometimes tracks this currency. The falling dollar is a plus for gold itself. Of course I'm a bit frustated having tried to trade the gold shares recently for losses and now not being on board for the move higher. But we will look to buy the GDX August calls on weakness as one of the technical indicator patterns that we look at says that this move up will have legs. We'll see. Mentally I'm trying not to lament about missing this move in GDX. Missed money is better than lost money as the saying goes. However not being able to purchase the GDX calls before this move up was a mistake. Had I not incurred the earlier losses there perhaps I would have had the mental capacity to do the right thing this time around. That is why we always say the mental capital is more important than any amounts of money involved. The VIX was lower and the short term indicators here have now rolled over. Not short term oversold yet on the VIX which implies that the rally has room to run. Producer inflation numbers out tomorrow. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

No need to wait for the inflation data or so it seems as the Dow gained 317 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The consensus is for the comsumer price index to show a drop tomorrow so I suppose some are buying today in anticipation of that. Short covering is probably also a factor in todays rise. The short term indicators have turned back up for the S&P 500 with room to go higher. The NASDAQ is a laggard here so we'll have to see if that poses a problem going forward. We also have the tightening of the Bollinger bands going on with the over the counter stocks. So either we've just had a consolidation before a big price rise or the NASDAQ is going to roll over for a decent decline. I can't say that I'm bullish given the time of the year but markets go where they want. Tomorrow should give us an indication of what's about to happen. Gold was up $6 on the futures. The US dollar continued its fall and interest rates were steady. The XAU rose a point and GDX was up over 1/8. Volume was light. I placed orders overnight for both the July and August GDX calls. In the morning I canceled the GDX July call trade and left open the one for the GDX August calls. My guess is that the gold shares will be higher with the overall market tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. The short term indicators here are still mid-range. I would expect them to roll over tomorrow on market strength as well. On another note the prices for the SPY July call options were extremely overpriced compared with the puts. The market makers here are generally on top of things so when you see this type of activity it sometimes tips the markets hand about what is to occur. It is saying that we will be going higher in the near term and we'll see about that tomorrow. Asia and Europe were up as money is coming into stocks around the globe. We'll see how the market reacts to tomorrows inflation data.

Hanging around on a summer Monday as the Dow gained 209 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. The Dow outperformed today and that isn't the most positive scenario. We are getting short term oversold on some of our indicators for the S&P 500 but most remain mid-range. Waiting on the inflation data due out Wednesday and Thursday with Wednesdays numbers being the key. We do have some negative RSI divergences on some of the major indice daily charts but no real break downs yet. That could change this week. But I'm also not seeing anything that says we can't just start to head higher from here as well. That's what mid-range indicators will do. You can make the case either way. I'm on the sidelines for now with regards to the SPY. Gold was off a buck on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose 2 1/2, while GDX gained 5/8. Volume was slightly better than average. The gold shares up and gold not is a positive sign. I did place an order for the July GDX calls overnight but it wasn't filled. It looks like today was the day to try the calls here so I am going to have to decide tomorrow if I want to chase this move higher or not. It will be too late Wednesday if gold rallies off of the inflation data. But if the data comes in hot, the GDX calls most likely will not pan out. Technically the 200 day moving average held once again for GDX and that is a plus. Perhaps heading out to the August option cycle is the correct move here. Always plenty of questions without easy answers in the trading game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today which doesn't fit with a positive market. Still below the 50 day moving average here. The mid-range short term technical indicators here make trying to predict what happens next with the VIX a chore. The only thing that I can say with any clarity is that the market will be moving on Wednesday. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

It was a tale of two markets today as the 1st half of the day was up and the 2nd half down. The Dow fell 187 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive though. The summation index is moving sideways. Trying to determine which way things will go from here is the problem at the moment. The jobs numbers were in line with expectations. The overall market was not as weak as the Dow. The daily candlestick chart for the S&P 500 looks like it has a double top. The short term indicators here are pointing down. The Bollinger bands on he NASDAQ daily chart are starting to contract so something is brewing there. I'm still leaning towards the downside here but will look at things again over the weekend. Inflation data due out next week should be the next driver of market movement. Gold was up $16 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates wre steady. The XAU was up 1 3/8, while GDX gained over 1/3. Volume was light. GDX remains on the oversold side but not at extremes. I'm now looking at both the July and August calls there ahead of next weeks inflation data. Perhaps if we see weakness here early next week I'll try the GDX calls. However we'll have all weekend to try and figure out what to do here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished lower which doesn't fit with a down market. It did again close below the 50 day moving average. I'm not exactly sure where the VIX is headed. There's still 2 weeks to go in the July option cycle. So we have plenty of time to make a trade. Hopefully I'll have a clearer picture of what to do after going over the charts this weekend. Asia was lower and Europe generally higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Sellers returned to Wall street as the Dow lost 366 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to move sideways. We had seeling around the globe overnight. The negative RSI divergence for the S&P 500 went from potential to actual. I did place an overnight order for some SPY July puts but it wasn't filled and I canceled it. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over. However the market finished well off of the lows for the day so perhaps the worst has passed. We'll see how things go after the employment report tomorrow. Gold was off ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates continued to climb. The XAU fell almost 3 points and GDX lost 3/4. Volume was good to the downside. I'm still considering the GDX August calls but I'm not completely sold on that idea as GDX is back below its 200 day moving average. I'll think about it overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and had a big spike early on as the contracting Bollinger bands suggested. Some of the short term indicators here are only mid-range which suggests perhaps more volatility in the works. Stock markets have become agitated now after the recent run up. Could the summer rally already be done? Stay tuned. Europe and Asia sold off again last night. We'll see how the week closes out tomorrow.

Just a bit lower today as the market seems on hold ahead of the employment report on Friday. The Dow fell 129 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues higher. The Dow was the underperformer today. The potential negative RSI divergence is still in place for the S&P 500. Perhaps if we see some upside in the S&P tomorrow we'll try the SPY July puts ahead of the jobs numbers. The S&P 500 is short term overbought. So the technical set up is in place if we want to try this idea. Option premiums here are still rather pricey though. Gold was off $6 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 3 1/3, while GDX slid 7/8. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX have rolled over. Todays price action for GDX could be the snap back to the down trend line that it just penetrated. Or we could be heading back down to test the recent lows. Since we are looking for the stock market to take a break here, I'll probably wait before trying the GDX calls here again. I also am now looking at the August option cycle here. We'll consider the scenarios overnight and go from there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and touched the upper Bollinger band. The short term indicators have turned up as well. Not sure what the VIX is implying here but I'm pretty sure we'll see an outsized move for this indicator soon based on the contracting Bollinger bands. I don't think that it will be going much lower here but I could be wrong. The VIX is also pretty far from its 50 week moving average. So we have plenty of reasons to try the SPY July puts if we want to. Asia and Europe were down overnight and the US followed suit. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Slight gains on a shortened trading session as the Dow was up 10 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Most traders are off until Wednesday and some for the rest of the week. The summar rally is in full swing but there is a potential negative RSI divergence brewing on the S&P daily chart. So far we have a light volume rally scenario that we were hoping for. It has taken us above the recent highs for the S&P 500. I suppose that if we are going to try the SPY July puts we should do so before the jobs report on Friday. We'll consider this for the next couple of days. Gold and the US dollar finished flat on the day. Interest rates had a slight rise. The XAU gained almost 2 points while GDX rose over 1/2. Volume was pretty good considering it was a half day session. GDX has now broken through the down trend line that began in May on the daily chart. The positive RSI divergence here did indeed turn out to be true. We will try the GDX July calls again on any weakness. The short term technical indicators for GDX are mid-range so there is plenty of room for them to go higher. However there is the chance that the gold shares just continue to move higher without a rest. The gold shares are outperforming gold itself and that's a plus. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was flat today as well. The tight Bollinger bands still imply that something is coming here. Asia was up and Europe slightly negative to begin the week. Enjoy the July 4th holiday tomorrow.