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Wednesday, September 20, 2023

The Fed came and went and it led to one day downside reversals for most of the major averages. My higher stock prices thesis was wrong and the positive daily candlestick patterns from yesterday were negated. The Dow fell 76 points on light volume. It had been up around 250 early on. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is on the cusp of breaking lower from the recent congestion zone. The NASDAQ led they way lower and that's a negative. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are now oversold and it is about to touch the lower Bollinger band. Will that be able to hold prices here? Stay tuned. I'm not sure what to expect next but the market goes where it wants. We'll wait and see what happens overseas tonight but still on the sidelines with regards to trading the SPY options. Gold finished flat after being up early on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates slightly rose. The XAU added 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/3 on average volume. Both finished off of the best levels for the day. GDX remains short term overbought and we have seen recent interest here that had been lacking. I still have the order out there for the GDX October calls but if GDX starts to head lower now it may be time to cancel it. GDX was pushed back from the 30 level which is where a down trend line in effect since May occurs on the daily chart. My thinking is if we can make it through that line more buying will come in and the GDX October calls will benefit. That may just be wishful thinking on my part though. Mentally I'm still not 100%. The VIX was higher today and closed above its 50 day moving average. Not yet short term overbought here. I'm not sure what's next for this indicator. Interesting day today but where are we going from here? I don't have a good handle on things at the moment so we will have to watch and wait with regards to the SPY. The lack of volume is a concern as liquidty and participation could become a problem. But we'll see how things go tomorrow. Europe higher and Asia lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

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