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Tuesday, September 05, 2023

Back to work Tuesday as the Dow fell 195 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to track sideways. The Dow led the way lower and that isn't the most bearish scenario. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 remain short term overbought here. They are both holding up for now but if things roll over here we might retest the recent lows. The Russell 2000 had a lousy session and it is sometimes the leader of things to come. The TRAN had a decent drop today as well. So we'll be keeping a close eye on what happens next. It is a light week for economic data. Gold slid $15 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 3 points, while GDX lost 5/8. Volume was almost average. The short term indicators for GDX have rolled over. I adjusted down my order for the GDX October calls. May adjust it again tomorrow if the gold shares continue to fall. We still like this idea but have to be careful as the overall market is in a negative seasonal time period. If the summation index were to roll over it will take stocks with it and the gold shares would most likely go along for the ride. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits a down market. Still short term oversold here. I'm not sure where the VIX is headed next. The Fed beige book is out tomorrow and might be a reason for the market to move. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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