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Friday, August 25, 2023

The Fed chairman had nothing new to say and the market used that as an excuse to move higher as the Dow gained 247 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving down. Could it be that yesterday was a washout to the downside on fears of the Fed? We'll know as time moves on. We still have that bearish engulfing pattern staring at us on the S&P 500 daily chart. At a minimum it implies at least sideways price action. The short term technical indicators have turned back up for the S&P. We have the final week of summer coming at us so perhaps not everyone will be at their desks next week. Inflation data and the jobs report are due. We'll also close out one month and open another. The technical picture for stocks isn't exactly clear cut at the moment. Gold was off around $6 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 1 1/4, while GDX shed around 1/4. Volume was light. I canceled my open order for the GDX September calls so it wouldn't be out there over the weekend. I'm still in favor of some gold share calls here but thinking that I might head out to the October option cycle. We'll see. The short term indicators for GDX are mid-range so I probably shouldn't be in any kind of hurry. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX sank today and that fits an up market. The short term indicators have turned back down and imply lower VIX readings to come. That would be supportive for the stock market if it comes to pass. I'm not exactly certain what's going on with stocks at the moment. But I do know that if we don't see a turnaround soon things will get ugly based on the location of the summation index to its zero line. WE'll have plenty to ponder as we check ut all the charts over the weekend. Asia was lower and Europe slightly higher to close out the trading week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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