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Monday, August 07, 2023

Buyers returned to the game as the Dow gained 407 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The Dow was the leader today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. We were pretty short term oversold after Fridays price action so a bounce was in the cards. What happens moving forward is what we're concerned about. I still like the SPY August put idea but when to buy them is the question. Before or after the inflation data? If we continue higher into the close on Wedneady I'll probably try them then. If not the picture isn't as clear. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned back up with plenty of room to go higher. The Bollinger bands are starting to get closer together on the S&P daily chart as well. Are we heading back to new recent highs for the stock indexes? Always plenty of questions in the game. Gold was off five bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates ticked up. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume. Barrick Gold releases its earnings tomorrow. That will influence GDX one way or the other. We're still considering the GDX September calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with an up market. The short term technical indicators here have turned back down. It's another reason that there could be more gains for stocks in the near future. But we'll have to wait and see as things don't usually travel in a straight line. I may place an open order for the SPY August puts tonight but perhaps waiting until Wednesday is the better plan. Asia and Europe started the week mixed. We'll see if there is any follow through buying tomorrow.

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