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Tuesday, August 29, 2023

Moving higher as the Dow gained 292 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning back up. Once again the NASDAQ was the leader going higher and that's a plus for the bulls. Probably some short covering today as the S&P 500 closed above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are moving higher and not yet completely overbought. The bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart for the S&P failed. The short term down trend line has been broken to the upside and it's pretty safe to say that the August decline has ended. Whether or not we make a new recovery high remains to be seen. We will wait for a decent signal in order to try the SPY September options. Gold climbed $18 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU added another two points, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was almost average. I still have the open order for the GDX October calls out there but it's obvious that we've missed this move higher for the gold shares. Getting to short term overbought on GDX but not there yet. Another day like today would do it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and closed below its 50 day moving average. Short term oversold on the techncial indicators here but that doesn't mean that it can't stay that way. The low VIX is another area of positive support for the market. I think that unless we see some kind of dramatic turnaround for stocks before the end of the week that we will trend higher from here. Don't know where the liquidity is coming from but we will not argue with price. We'll also keep in mind that things can turn on a dime if the inflation or employment reports don't come in as expected. But with the summation index turning around back to the upside we've got to be looking for higher prices from here. Europe and Asia were positive as markets are moving up around the world. We'll see if the party continues tomorrow.

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