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Tuesday, August 08, 2023

Sellers returned today but it wasn't a bad as it could have been. The Dow fell 158 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. We opened with a gap down and the Dow was off over 450 just an hour and a half in. But we made steady upward progress from there to finish where we did. The NASDAQ was the leader going south and that's a negative. The S&P 500 touched its lower Bollinger band and went up from there. It remains short term oversold. I still like the SPY August puts at some point but it looks like we might see a small rally from here. Or not as the market is trying to make up its mind. We'll stay on the sidelines for now. Gold fell ten dollars on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dipped a little. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses once again on very light volume. GDX remains short term oversold and I thought about getting some calls there today. The gold shares are holding up well with the price of gold dropping and that's always a plus. If the inflation data this week comes in weaker than expected we should see gold move higher. However that's a big if. Had I not had so many losing trades in GDX so far this year I might be inclined to give the calls another shot. We'll just watch and wait here as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but fell back from its highest levels on the session. Still overbought here but not to an extreme. The daily candlestick chart for the VIX looks like it wants to head back down. However this indicator can be hard for me to gauge sometimes. I'd expect the markets to be in a holding pattern tomorrow ahead of the coming inflation news. Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of Japan. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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