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Friday, August 04, 2023

We had a one day reversal to the downside as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 150 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving lower. The jobs report came in where expected and we opened with a gap higher and then fell back. The market rallied good from there before turning around mid-session and dropping into the close. The S&P led the way lower. Short term oversold there now on some of the indicators. We are also pretty oversold on some of the other technical signals that we track. That said it appears today was our chance to purchase the SPY August puts and we did not. I still might be willing to give this idea a try next week if we see some kind of rally early in the week. But the tone of the market has changed and sellers have taken over. Gold rose $7 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX gained about 1/3. Volume was light. The gold shares are short term oversold but I sold my GDX August calls anyway. It was an 80% loss. Not a lot of money involved but this trade was ill timed. The volume here on the up days is pretty light so there isn't any real interest in owning the gold shares here. GDX is still holding on to its 50 week moving average though. I'll perhaps consider going out to the September option cycle here but if the market drops more as we suspect it will, the gold shares will follow. Mentally I'm feeling OK despite another losing trade. Should have used a stop loss order there. The VIX was up today and remains short term overbought. Still below the 20 level here. If the VIX can work off the overbought condition we may have a chance to try the SPY August puts next week. My hope would be to purchase some SPY puts ahead of the inflation data due out on Thursday and Friday. Up trend lines remain intact on the daily charts for the major averages. But they won't hold up if the decline continues from here. Europe and Asia were higher to close out the week. We'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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