The market took off to the upside today as the Dow climbed 372 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Looks like a deal to keep the US government open will happen.  I certainly missed the SPY February call trade that I was looking for by a day.  Perhaps if I was paying better attention yesterday I would have pulled the trigger on that trade.  But it was missed and it's on to the next idea.  Looks like I'll have to sit on the sidelines for now until the technical indicators line up.  I am looking at the SPY March puts now.  The market is overbought and has been for weeks.  This is a condition that will eventually reverse.  When is the question and by how much?  For now the positive expiration week bias should last the next couple of days.  GE was off a nickel and the volume is lighter than it's been  Gold finished flat on the day despite a drop in the US dollar.  The XAU had a fractional loss, while GDX was flat.  Volume was very light.  I did think about trying the GDX February calls today for a very short term trade since Barrick Gold will report earnings tomorrow.  But that seemed more like a bet than an actual trading idea so I held off.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Missing trades is part of the game but that doesn't make it any easier to swallow.  At least my ideas are trending in the right direction for a change.  Doesn't mean much if you can't capitalize though.  Now the hard part of waiting for the next set up is here.  Long holiday weekend coming up and I'm not exactly sure if I want to be short going into that.  Right now it looks like waiting until Wednesday or Thursday of next week to try the puts is the best scenario.  But will the market cooperate?  It rarely does.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight as money is finding its way back into stocks around the globe.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 53 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  Both the NASDAQ and the S&P were higher on the session.  I would still like to get some SPY February calls tomorrow on weakness but it doesn't look like the market will cooperate.  The futures are already up 14 points on the S&P as it appears that a deal will be struck to keep the US government open  Friday was the deadline for a deal there.  Perhaps I should simply buy some calls at the open but I do not think that this is something I want to chase.  I guess I'll have to come up with another idea.  GE was up almost 1/4 but the volume was lighter.  Gold dropped $7 on the futures as the US dollar continues to move higher.  The XAU was off almost a point, while GDX lost 1/4.  Volume was average.  The gold shares have held up rather well despite a rise in the dollar.  It's something to keep an eye on.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still short term overbought for the major stock indices and that doesn't look like it's going to change.  Perhaps my next trade will be the SPY puts but I'll have to go out to March if that's the case.  Only 4 days left in the February option cycle and we're coming up on a holiday weekend as well.  It looks like I'll have to remain on the sidelines though.  We'll see what happens tomorrow.  Asia and Europe were higher on Monday.  It looks like markets around the globe are going to rally tonight as the futures are higher throughout.  It looks like the US shutdown deal has a wide reach.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

A sell off and a comeback today for most of the stock indices.  The Dow fell 63 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still moving higher but again not as strong as it was.  The Dow was off almost 300 points in the morning but buying came in especially in the final half hour.  The Dow is hanging around its 200 day moving average.  The S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ managed to eek out small gains.  I'm not exactly bearish here as whatever decline we get here will be short lived and shallow in my view.  I still favor the SPY February calls on weakness early next week.  Tuesday would be my preferred day to purchase but it may already be too late.  I'll consider my choices over the weekend.  GE lost 1/4 on continues heavy volume.  Getting some selling here as you can't expect any stock to just keep going straight up.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar was only slightly higher.  The XAU was up a point and GDX rose 1/3 on good volume.  The flag pattern here on the daily chart for GDX may still be intact with a potential run to 23 in the works before expiration.  That's a guess on my part.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I think that the game plan for next week is set and it's just a matter of time to see what happens.  My guess is that things will be positive for stocks with option expiration at the end of the week.  Barring some headline that changes things of course.  We are still short term overbought for stocks but that doesn't mean that we can't move higher next week.  We should see more economic data released along with what's left of earnings.  We'll also probably find out if the US government is going to close again.  A positive resolution there should move stocks higher.  So we'll see.  I certainly don't want to get confident about anything.  Europe and Asia were both lower to end the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Finally saw some downside today as the Dow fell 220 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving up but not with the same gusto as before.  The market did finish well off of its lows for the session.  I don't think that this is the beginning of some huge downside move to retest the lows of December.  I did try to get some puts beforehand in the past few days but to no avail.  My next idea is to try the SPY February calls if things go according to plan.  I would not purchase them until the beginning of next week if we do simply move sideways here or trade a little lower.  The US/China tariffs reared their ugly head today and that was the excuse for the decline.  GE lost 3/8 on the now usual heavy volume.  Gold finished little changed but the US dollar continued its rise.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  I think that I'll wait for gold to get oversold again before trying something there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked today but finished well off of the worst levels.  The Dow was off about 390 at one point.  The fact that things didn't completely fall apart is a plus.  There's still plenty of money to go around it seems.  Now there could be another headline tonight and we could drop 500 points in a flash but I don't thank that is going to happen.  The internals of the summation index are very positive.  That usually means that any weakness that's seen won't amount to much.  We've got option expiration week coming and its usual positive bias.  If we can hang around for the next couple of days, I'll be looking at the SPY February calls on Tuesday.  I expect to see some strength in equities after that.  However we all know that the market rarely cooperates.  Japan was lower overnight but the rest of Asia that was open fared better.  Europe was lower led by the DAX.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Just a bit of weakness today as the Dow fell 21 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues to move up.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow but it feels more like a pause on the way to higher prices.  No real news to speak of.  We're still short term overbought for the S&P.  I did place an overnight order for some SPY February puts in case we got a rally today but we didn't.  I've canceled the order.  Not sure what my next move here will be.  I suppose I'll wait and see if we higher from here.  Perhaps then I'll try the puts again.  GE was off over 1/8 on the usual heavy volume.  Gold fell eight bucks on the futures as the US dollar continues higher.  The XAU lost about a point, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was light.  GDX is still in a flag formation after the recent run up.  That usually is a continuation pattern.  We'll see if it works this time around.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just a sideways day today really with not much price movement.  Volatility has disappeared for now really.  The VIX is at fifteen and change.  I still believe that we've had a five wave upside pattern for the S&P and that we are nearing the end of the rise.  Combine that with the overbought condition on the short term for stocks and I do think that the SPY puts are in order.  Now I don't think that a dramatic decline is about to take place but I do think that the possibility to make some profit is there.  Again, the entry will be key and getting out rather quickly is probably the best route to take.  So if we do see some strength tomorrow I may give this idea another try.  What was open in Asia was higher last night and a mixed bag from Europe.  We'll keep an eye on the trading overnight. 

The beat goes on as the Dow gained 172 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  No end in sight for this rally as the V bottom cannot be denied at this point.  I was stopped out of my latest SPY February put trade for another roughly 20% loss.  The same conditions persist, overbought and staying there.  That said I may try this trade again tomorrow against my better judgment.  We'll see.  The VIX has sunk below the 16.5 level and still no selling.  The SPY to me looks like it has completed a five wave up move from the lows in December.  Yet we see not even a hint of a decline.  This won't last forever.  But will it change in the near term if I attempt to trade the puts again?  GE was up 3/8 and the volume remains heavy.  Anybody who bought in the single digits will be pleased in the longer term.  Gold was flat on the session with the US dollar a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  These indexes appear ready to move higher after a small consolidation.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Overbought and drifting higher for the major stock indices led by the small caps.  That is bullish but it's not a freight train.  Getting long in the tooth here I believe.  But that doesn't mean things get run up into the February expiration like they did in January.  We've still got earnings coming out.  Trump speaks tonight with the state of the union.  Powell speaks tomorrow in some kind of town hall meeting.  So there are potential market moving events as the US/China tariff talks have moved to the back burner until the end of the month.  I'll check things out overnight and decide if I want to try the SPY February puts again tomorrow.  The longer this thing stay overbought the better chance the puts have of working if the entry can be timed properly.  No small feat there.  Japan was slightly lower as most Asian markets are on holiday.  Europe was mostly higher.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Another day another gain as the Dow rose 175 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues to move up.  The short term overbought condition persists and the market keeps climbing.  I think at this point it's safe to say that the V bottom is for real and there will be no retest.  That said, I did try the SPY February puts this morning.  When it appeared that this was obviously the wrong choice, I sold what I had purchased for a 20% loss.  As the market moved higher I went to a higher strike price for the puts and tried this idea again.  I'm holding on overnight with a slight loss at the moment.  The stop loss order has been placed.  If this does get stopped out tomorrow I guess I'll forget about getting short.  GOOG reports after the bell and that should drive things early tomorrow morning.  GE was up a couple cents and the volume remains heavy.  Gold fell five bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional losses on average volume.  Money continues to seek out the gold shares here.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  It seems like I'm still married to this idea that the market has to drop here.  Overbought for days now and we've broken through resistance but I still can't let go of the idea that things need to take a break on the upside.  We're just about at the 200 day moving average for the S&P.  But the small stocks have been acting well here and I seem to be ignoring that.  Perhaps I'm not really listening to the technical indicators as I should.  Maybe I'm just anxious for another winning trade since I just had one.  Whatever the case, I will head to the sidelines if the current SPY put trade gets stopped out tomorrow as it appears it will be barring some unforeseen development overnight.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A mixed bag to end the week as the Dow gained 64 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The NASDAQ was lower on the session.  My SPY February puts were stopped out for a 30% loss.  I can live with that.  I still think that we're nearing some kind of top here but I could be wrong.  I placed another order for some SPY puts but then canceled it.  I decided to look things over again this weekend and go from there.  Overbought and staying that way for the major averages.  The jobs report was better than expected but the response on Wall street was muted.  We are at a logical spot for some resistance to take place.  However with only two weeks to go in the February option cycle the timing of any trade will have to be spot on.  I'll consider my options over the weekend.  GE was pretty much flat on the session but the volume remains heavy.  Gold was off a couple bucks and the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume.  Although overbought it feels like there's still some upside room left for the gold shares.  Perhaps running into the option expiration on the 15th.  That's a guess for sure.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Another good week for the stock market as the rally from the end of December still has legs.  I think we're due for a rest but the market can stay overbought longer than you can remain solvent it's been said.  Looking back I regret not holding on to the GDX calls still.  But looking back is only good for study and not for regrets.  I do feel good about simply taking the loss on yesterdays trade even though I got in at the spot I thought was right.  Perhaps the V bottom is what we've seen and it certainly appears that way now.  We've also just broken through the declining tops line of the S&P with good volume.  That is certainly bullish.  So there will be plenty to think about over the weekend.  Asia was slightly lower and Europe higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow was off a bit but the overall market soared higher.  The most watched index dropped 15 points on very heavy end of the month volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The S&P 500 was up over 20 and the NASDAQ gained close to 100.  It appears that the S&P is breaking through the down trend line on good volume.  That would be bullish and it appears that is the case.  Overbought and staying that way in the rally.  After the bell Amazon reported good earnings so it looks like we'll go even higher tomorrow.  But we do have the jobs report to contend with but it may simply be a non event in this ride.  I did purchase some SPY February puts today.  SPY got to the level of 270 that I was looking for.  The VIX also made it down to the 16.5 level and its 200 day moving average.  So this would be the area for the VIX to bounce if what I'm looking for is correct.  If not, we'll move higher and the put trade will be a loss.  It's looking like that's the case at the moment.  If so I'll take the loss and move on.  GE rallied on the earnings report today and rose a little over a buck on extremely heavy volume.  Gold moved higher again as well with the futures up almost $10.  The US dollar had a slight gain.  The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX added 1/2.  Volume was good.  Overbought and staying that way for the gold shares as well.  Obviously I should have held on at least another day on the GDX call trade.  Money left on the table there and it looks like the rally will continue.  There is plenty of overhead resistance here for the gold shares but we are cutting right through it at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much news coming out of the US/China talks the past couple of days.  We'll see if we get anything overnight.  It looks like the past week or so was a consolidation flag for the S&P as we have broken out above it on good volume.  The 200 day moving average would be the next logical area of resistance at 2740 for the S&P and around 272 on the SPY.  At the rate that we're going we'll get there tomorrow.  I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines but it looks like I'll get stopped out of the SPY February put trade tomorrow morning.  Europe and Asia followed the US higher overnight.  We'll see what the jobs report has to say and finish out the trading week tomorrow.

The market powered higher today after the dovish Fed speak as the Dow climbed 435 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading up.  Overbought and staying that way for the major stock indices.  The SPY is about to break its down trend line that began last October.  However there is still plenty of overhead resistance, including the 200 day moving average at 271.  I'm still inclined to try the SPY February puts here if we continue higher near term.  We have been overbought for quite a length of time.  The VIX is practically within a point of the 16.5 level that is my signal to short.  Now of course I could be wrong here because if we get some good news out of the US/China talks the market should take off again.  I'll consider what to do this evening and go from there.  GE was up twenty cents on good volume.  Earnings tomorrow will dictate the near term there.  Gold rallied on the Fed with the futures gaining ten bucks.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU was up a point and GDX added 1/4.  Volume was good as money continues to make its way into the gold shares.  Short term overbought here but it could stay that way.  We did finish off of the best levels here.  I sold my GDX February calls.  I didn't get the best price of the session as GDX climbed to 22.5.  I did manage a nice gain of over 400% though for the trade.  My fear is that I've sold too early because there is still over two weeks to go in the February option cycle.  But at least it was a winner for a change and I certainly needed that.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Everything is now looking up for the market with the Fed out of the way.  Of course that could all change with tomorrows headlines but right now it feels like there's another leg up here for stocks.  It still looks like we've had a V shape recovery in prices and there will be no retest of the lows.  The Dow is poised to break above its 200 day moving average tomorrow.  Perhaps the SPY puts are the wrong idea here but if the VIX gets to 16.5 I'm giving them a shot.  I'll also be keeping an eye on the GDX because it looks like the rally there is for real.  Waiting for the next oversold level to trade long there again.  Europe was generally higher and Asia mixed overnight.  I would expect to see the foreign markets rally on the heels of the US.  We'll see if there are any developments form the China/US talks overnight. 

A mixed bag today as the Dow rose 54 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow led down by the NASDAQ.  The VIX was slightly higher today.  Waiting on the Fed I guess but I don't expect any surprises there.  I could be wrong.  Two days of US/China talks begin tomorrow.  I'm still leaning towards the SPY February puts but I'm not in a rush to buy them.  GE lost a few cents on good volume.  Gold was up $7 on the futures while the US dollar was just a touch higher.  Gold is clearly now above the 1300 level.  The XAU added 1 7/8 and GDX rose 1/2.  Volume picked up a bit.  Clearly short term overbought for the gold shares now.  However in rallies the short term condition remains as the stocks move higher.  Is that what we are about to see here?  My GDX February calls are solidly in the black with a nice profit.  Perhaps I should simply take it here.  We are at the near term resistance level of 22.  Something to consider overnight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Lots of news and announcements for the rest of the week for the market to digest.  I suppose what I'd really like to do is wait for the VIX to get to 16.5 and then get the SPY puts.  Not sure if I have the patience or discipline to do that but I should.  The NASDAQ daily indicators have clearly rolled over but the other indices including RUT not so much.  I guess I'll wait for one more push to the upside for stocks and look foe the SPY puts there.  If stocks just drop from here I at least have the GDX trade to fall back on.  Never easy in this game.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trading.  We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow and keep an eye on the market reaction.

We began the week with a thud as the Dow fell 209 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  Earnings disappointments were the reason for today fall but there's a lot on the plate this week.  We've got the Fed, US/China talks, the jobs report and long awaited other economic data coming out.  It should be quite a week going either way.  We're still short term overbought but the short term technical indicators for the major stock averages are starting to roll over.  I did place an overnight order for the SPY February puts but it wasn't filled.  Might try again tomorrow.  GE lost about 1/4 on good volume.  We've been going sideways since the run up from the lows.  Hopefully it's a bullish flag formation.  Earnings due on Thursday.  Gold and the US dollar were both flat today.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  My GDX February calls are doing nicely so far.  Getting short term overbought here though.  Plus we're at resistance of 21.5 for GDX.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  I'd still like to see a run up to around 270 on SPY before getting short.  The market may not cooperate though.  The VIX spiked up today but did finish below its highest intra-day levels.  Would love to see it get to 16.5 but this may not occur either.  I'm trying to remain patient for now because it is such a huge week for data and announcements.  Markets could swing big in either direction.  For now I'll keep an eye on things and see how it goes.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Back to upside for the Dow on the hopes that the US government stalemate is over.  The most watched index rose 184 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues to move higher.  Getting closer to the resistance at 270 for the SPY and closer to the VIX level of 16.5 which is my threshold to get short.  Now this may not be the right idea but technically it is where you take a shot.  We'll see if we get there next week.  GE was up over 1/3 on good volume.  Earnings due here next week so we should see some movement then.  Which way is the question as always.  Gold had a stellar day as the futures jumped over twenty dollars.  The US dollar got slammed.  The XAU gained 2 1/2, while GDX rose 2/3.  Volume was slightly above average.  My GDX February calls are in the black.  If GDX can get through 21.5, I'm guessing we'll make it to 22.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've got the Fed next week but it's assumed there won't be any surprises coming there.  Economic data could start to be released if the government reopens as anticipated.  Supposedly a three week reopening has been agreed to.  But in this day and age, I'll believe it when I see it.  There's also some US/China tariff meetings scheduled for next week as well.  So there will be plenty to watch but most of all I'll keep an eye on the technical indicators and see if they reach the action points.  However I will certainly be double checking my work over the weekend.  We are still short term overbought on the major stock indices.  Gold and the gold shares however have moved up from being oversold.  Not overbought here yet but heading in that direction.  It looks like the GDX February call trade could work but we all know that market goes where it wants.  Gold did close above the 1300 level on the futures and that's a plus for the bulls.  Resistance comes in at 1320.  Plenty of charts to go over this weekend to get ready to close out the month.  Europe and Asia moved higher with the exception of England again.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

More back and forth today as the Dow fell 22 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  We're still short term overbought for the S&P 500.  Nothing has really changed.  I'm waiting for 270 on the SPY in order to try the puts there.  Perhaps we can get there at some point next week.  We're still waiting for some kind of settlement to reopen the US government and the market reaction to that.  Should be positive and we'll go from there.  No economic reports until the government gets back to work.  GE gained a nickel on good volume.  Gold was flat but the US dollar was higher.  The XAU was off a touch and GDX was flat.  Volume was light.  No interest in gold here one way or the other.  The gold shares remain oversold so I'll continue to hold on to the GDX February call trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A short holiday week and we'll finish it out tomorrow.  Still a lot of earnings to come out.  We're still at the mercy of the latest China/US trade talk story.  Plus the US government shutdown soap opera.  I still favor some downside at resistance because there is a lot of it right above where we are.  Patient for now.  Gold is holding the 1280 level but a break there would be negative as there is no support until around 1260.  We'll see how it goes.  Asia was higher as was Europe with the exception of the FTSE.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Back to the upside for the Dow as it gained 171 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow as the advance/declines suggest.  A weak volume rally up to around 270 on the SPY would be the ideal scenario for getting short here.  I'm not sure that will exactly happen but we can hope.  The VIX moved back down today and if it gets to 16.5, that's the signal to get the puts as well.  It is simply a matter of waiting and checking which options to buy if and when we get there.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold fell a buck and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU and GDX had very minor fractional gains on very light volume.  My open order for the GDX February calls was filled so I'm in the next trade.  It is showing a tiny profit.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market moved back and forth today as it tries to make up its mind where to go next.  Still plenty of earnings to come and the eventual resolution of the US government shutdown.  I'll still be looking for small run up to 270 on the SPY and then go from there.  We could also stall right here and roll over as well.  If that's the case then it will be too late for me to get short.  There's also the chance that the market just keeps going higher here as well but that isn't the outcome that I'm favoring at the moment.  GDX and gold are both oversold here but as we all know, anything can happen in this game.  Europe and Asia were slightly lower last night.  We'll keep an eye on the headlines tomorrow.

A negative start to the trading week as the Dow fell 301 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were a little over 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues higher.  Volatility returned today but it doesn't mean that this is the beginning of some protracted downturn.  It could be but we don't know yet.  Many times the trading day after expiration is the reverse of the price action on expiration.  We'll have to see how the rest of the week progresses.  Of course today was the kind of price action I was expecting last week but the market simply didn't cooperate.  If we get back to the 270 level on the SPY, I'll try the February puts.  GE lost forty cents on good volume.  Gold was up a bit and the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  I did place an order for some GDX February calls as we have reached short term oversold here.  I'm leaving the order in overnight.  Not a lot of money involved here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Selling today as what were hopes last week with regards to the Chine/US trade deal turned into fears over the weekend.  We're at the mercy of headline risk more so than usual until something concrete comes out of this mess.  SPY managed to bounce off of its 50 day moving average and that's a plus.  Still short term overbought here though.  I guess I'm hoping for a move near 270 and we'll see what happens from there.  It would be great to see the VIX make it back down to 16.5 but that looks like it's out of the question after today.  Plenty of time in the February option cycle.  Perhaps I'll wait for the US government shutdown to end and fade the rally off of that.  Many scenarios to deal with as we go forward here.  We'll see if we get any follow through selling tomorrow and take it from there.  Europe and Asia were lower last night.  We'll keep an eye on the trading activity tonight. 

Powering higher as the Dow gained 336 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Perhaps today was what the McClellan oscillator was signaling.  Overhead resistance?  No problem as the S&P 500 is plowing ahead.  Next up, the declining tops line at the 2700 level.  It's only 30 points away.  That would be the logical spot to try the SPY puts again but I don't know if I want to step in front of this freight train.  The thaw in the US/China tariff war is the excuse for the rally.  The fact that it just happens to occur during options expiration week is just a coincidence.  Sure.  Overbought but we've been that way for days.  The VIX is making its way back to the 200 day moving average at 16.5.  That will be the moment of truth and I will try the SPY February puts there.  GE was off a bit on good volume.  Gold fell $11 and the US dollar was higher.  The XAU dropped 1 1/8, while GDX fell 1/3.  Volume was a bit above average.  No need for gold if the market continues to rally as the fear trades will unwind.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not a good week for me as I booked a couple more losing trades.  In retrospect waiting expiration week out would have been a better idea.  But you go with what you know at the time.  The rally seems like it has no end.  If the US government shutdown ends, that would provide another reason to buy.  Right now it appears that the market is ignoring any bad news and there are no sellers.  A V bottom is in place and I don't know how much longer we can simply go straight up.  Usually it's longer than you think.  Europe and Asia were both higher as money is pouring back into stocks around the world.  I'll check the charts over the weekend but it looks at this point that the rally will never end.  We know better than that.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.    

Another day, another gain as the Dow rose 163 points on good volume.  the advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  It was a one day reversal to the upside as we opened lower and closed higher.  My work indicating a decline today was wrong.  The expected decline did not materialize despite a down open.  The advance was fueled late in the session by a report the the trade tariffs with China were being lifted.  Of course it wasn't true but that didn't matter as the market took off.  I was stopped out of one of my SPY January put trades for a 40% loss.  I sold the other SPY January put trade for a 95% loss.  That trade should have had a stop loss order but did not and that's on me.  Halfway through the first month of the year and already the losses are mounting.  This is the longest losing streak of my trading life.  the market doesn't care though and you've got to keep moving on.  Overbought for days on end now as sellers have gone on vacation.  of course you can make a case for the upside maneuvering for the expiration tomorrow and you could have a valid argument.  The McClellan oscillator signaled for a big move in the next two days yesterday and today would qualify for that.  GE was up over 1/8 on better volume.  Gold dropped a couple bucks and the US dollar was flat.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  RUT broke through its declining tops line today.  We'll see if there is some follow through going forward.  There is a case to be made for the S&P 500 in a 5 wave move up from the lows with this being the fifth and final wave higher.  However with the strength of the move higher here with a V bottom in place may indicate that up is the only path from here.  Certainly a resolution of the trade war with China will provide a stimulus to the upside as todays price action indicates.  The normal overbought and oversold indicators are not working right now.  So it is tough to trade out there on the technical indicators at least for me.  I may have to head to the sidelines for a while after todays trading debacle.  There was a chance early on for a profit in the most recent trade but I was too slow to take it.  The wiping out of the gain came quickly and the sharp rally on the supposed tariffs relief took care of the rest.  At least there was a stop loss order in place there.  I'll simply have to move on and try again.  Europe and Asia were generally lower.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow.

The market climb continues as the Dow gained 141 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Overbought and staying that way, which is a sign of strength.  My SPY January puts are dead.  However I do believe that tomorrow will be a down session according to my work.  So I purchased some other SPY January puts at a closer to the money strike price.  This is a one day trade for me as I will be out tomorrow regardless.  The risk is extreme since there are only two trading days left for this.  Now I could be simply completely wrong here.  The market can certainly drift higher in to the expiration.  With a positive expiration bias that's usually in place, a drift upwards can certainly happen.  But I've also got to believe in what I'm doing, so I gave this trade a shot.  It's showing a slight profit but tomorrow will tell the story.  GE was up 1/4 on what now passes as average volume.  Gold was up a bout five bucks and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX were flat on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market remains resilient here as the bank earnings this week were not particularly good but those stocks have rallied anyway.  Perhaps the bad news was already priced in and the thought is that things will only get better from here.  Whatever the excuses, we cannot ignore the V shaped rally that has taken place.  We are in the overhead resistance at this point.  I can make a case to go a bit higher from here but I do believe that the declining tops line that is in place for the S&P 500 will be tough to overcome the first time around.  I would also keep an eye on the down trend line for RUT.  That index is usually a leader and it is right at that declining line.  If RUT would be able to break through here that would be entirely bullish for stocks going forward.  Hasn't happened yet but I'll be keeping an eye on it.  The Brexit drama out of England really hasn't been an issue for the US stock market.  Asia and Europe were generally higher overnight.  We'll see if the expected decline takes place tomorrow.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 155 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow and that is a plus for the bulls.  We've also climbed back above the zero line in the summation index.  My SPY January puts are now in the red over 50%.  Only a sharp decline in the next couple of sessions will save this trade.  It is once again a cut the loss kind of deal.  We remain short term overbought for all the major stock indices.  I do expect weakness on Thursday but from what levels and how much?  I also could be wrong.  GE was off over 1/8 but the volume was lighter than is has been.  Gold lost a couple bucks as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX dropped 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Another losing trade in the works as the market did not follow through on yesterdays drop.  Good news from China and bank earnings conference calls are the reasons for the rise.  The S&P is trying to get through the overhead resistance here but I don't think it will be successful.  That said there is room to go higher up to the declining tops line that began in October of last year.  That will be the next spot to try some puts if we get that far.  I've got to say at this point it appears that we will.  That level is just below 2700.  3 days to go in the January option cycle.  I'm inclined to wait until Thursday to dump this trade but it may not matter if we continue to the upside tomorrow.  There's some Brexit news due out of England tonight but it is already in the market according to some.  More bank earnings on tap as well.  Europe and Asia were both higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Slight downside to start the week as the Dow fell 86 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving higher.  We opened with a gap lower and then climbed back for most of the day until the final hour.  Short term overbought here for the market and some downside is expected but I certainly don't know how much.  I did take an elevated risk today by placing an open order for the SPY January puts.  It got filled later in the session.  With only 4 days left in this option cycle, you can see just how risky taking on a position is here.  It's showing a slight profit.  I'm not expecting a dramatic drop here but do think that weakness will show up it's just a matter of how much.  Today could be it for all I know.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was lighter than it has been.  GE is due for a rest and remains overbought.  Gold was up a couple bucks and the US dollar was a touch lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So I'm in the next trade now and it won't be one that lasts too long.  Out by Thursday at the latest and probably before then.  The VIX remains oversold while the major averages remain overbought.  This condition can persist but it already has.  I don't think that it will last all week but it could.  My entry price was what I wanted so I decided to take the chance.  Earnings are starting to trickle in and that should affect prices either way going forward.  Plus we're still not out of the woods with regards to some kind of headline appearing overnight out of nowhere.  But you could say that's always the case.  The technical indicators say we're in for a break here so I'll stick with that.  Could simply be sideways though.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow though.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

A day of hanging around mostly as the Dow tried to sell off again but couldn't.  The most watched index fell 6 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Overbought and staying there for the major stock indices.  Almost at resistance for the S&P.  I did place an order for some SPY January puts but it wasn't filled.  I'll go over this idea again on the weekend.  The VIX is getting down to the level where it has turned around but we aren't there yet.  I suppose the ideal scenario would for the VIX to get to 16 when we reach the declining tops line.  That could happen next week if we remain overbought but the market rarely sets up like you want it to.  The riskier play is trying the SPY January puts ahead of getting to the declining tops line.  Plenty to think about.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was lighter than it has been.  Gold was up slightly as was the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Expiration week coming up with plenty of economic data due out if it comes.  The government shutdown could affect the flow of data.  The market is overbought.  The VIX is oversold and at its lowest point in weeks.  We are near or at overhead resistance for all the major averages.  The McClellan oscillator remains in the 300's, which it rarely reaches.  All signs really point to some kind of downside on tap next week.  I will go over the charts this weekend but I do think that if we see any strength on Monday it should be shorted.  That is what everything is telling me right now.  The question is whether it will be just a short drop for the market to catch its breath or something more towards the retest of the lows that we haven't seen.  Right now things look more like a V bottom to me but that could change.  As always there's plenty of questions without obvious answers in the game.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend.  Asia up and Europe down to end the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

The Dow keeps moving higher as the most watched index rose 122 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  It was also a one day reversal to the upside as we opened lower and closed higher.  Short term overbought to be sure now but that condition can last in a rally.  I am looking at the SPY puts here for both January and February.  But the timing will have to be pretty good if I try the Januaries.  We are right at resistance of 2600 for the S&P.  It's possible that we get above there but I do think we are at the end of upside for now.  I should probably wait until we get to the 50 day moving average at 2635 but I don't think that we'll get there in the short term.  We'll see.  GE continues to the upside as it gained 3/8 on good volume.  Gold was off five bucks as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost 1 1/4, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is now resilient.  We've gone from a sell everything mode to an almost complete lack of sellers.  I am positive longer term for equities but I just can't see things going much higher from here with all the near term overhead resistance.  I do think that I'll let tomorrow pass since it's Friday and then check things out over the weekend.  Cutting it short on the blog today as I have other matters to attend to.  Europe and Asia were somewhat mixed.  We'll close out the week tomorrow. 

Another day another gain as the Dow rose 91 points on continued heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The McClellan oscillator is above the +340 level.  This is a very rare occurrence and the only way it can go from here is down.  I did look at the SPY January puts today but did not buy any.  We are getting to the overhead resistance in the S&P at 2600.  You could make a case for 2650 but that it about it.  The February puts are very pricey still due to the recent volatility.  I might try the puts but haven't yet made up my mind.  I did finally sell the SPY January calls that I had for a 50% loss.  I can live with that.  They were a total wipe out at one point.  Poor entry there yielded poor results.  I'm moving on.  GE lost few cents and the volume was lighter than lately.  Gold found buyers again and was up $8.  The US dollar fell, which I'm sure helped gold.  The XAU added 1 1/3, while GDX rose 1/4.  Volume was light.  Sill overbought here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Short term overbought for the S&P as well and we are in the vicinity of overhead resistance.  All signs point to some downside here but the timing as always will be the key.  The lack of sellers recently is a concern on going short here.  But I think if we get up to the 50 day moving average soon, I'll be trying the puts.  However it's possible that the market doesn't get that far.  One thing that I am fairly certain of is that we are not just going to break through the overhead resistance.  We have both a down trend line and sideways congestion pattern to get through on the S&P.  That will take some time and I certainly can't see the market breaking through on the first attempt.  I could be wrong but don't think that I am in this instance.  The key question here is when to try the SPY January puts before expiration next Friday.  I don't have that answer yet.  Europe and Asia were both higher as money is coming back into stocks worldwide.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading.

The market continues to climb as the Dow gained 256 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trending higher at a good clip.  The McClellan oscillator is now over +300.  We are due for some kind of pause here because the upside momentum has reached an extreme.  That doesn't mean a collapse is imminent or that we can't go higher after a rest.  It does probably mean though that my SPY January calls will be losers with only eight days left in the January option cycle.  The US/China trade talks weren't a disaster and the market rallied.  We are getting earnings pre-announcement misses already.  That will put a damper on things going forward.  GE was off over 1/8 on pretty heavy volume.  It also had a one day reversal to the downside.  Gold was off a few bucks as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX closed little changed on very light volume.  Still overbought on the short term here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Short term overbought and getting near some pretty good resistance of 2600 for the S&P.  Maybe we get another day of upside but the odds favor a pullback in the near term.  I really need to dump the SPY January calls that I have for a loss and move on.  Perhaps tomorrow on the open if we see some strength.  Probably should have done that today in retrospect.  The VIX is very oversold here as well and that means some downside is on the way.  How much is the question.  Can we squeeze out another day of gains here for the S&P?  That's another question that will be answered tomorrow.  The volume has been good here to the upside, so the rally is believable.  That does kind of make the case for a V bottom.  However I don't think that we'll get high enough to save my SPY January call trade.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Some follow through to Fridays upside today as the Dow gained about 100 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  It has turned around and so has the market for now.  Getting short term overbought for the S&P but not all they way there just yet.  My SPY January calls are still solid losers and losing time and volatility value as the days go on.  We'll need to see at least a 500 point upside day for this to be a cut the loss scenario.  I doubt that will happen but you never know in todays environment.  The very high readings of the McClellan oscillator here say that the worst is over for the market.  Perhaps what we'll see is a V bottom instead of the retest that I was looking for.  Hard to say at this point.  GE continues upwards and gained 1/2 on very heavy volume.  Gold was up a few bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Overbought here for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not a lot of economic data due out this week.  China and the US are having trade talks today and tomorrow.  Good or bad news from that could sway the market in either direction.  Headline risk remains in the forefront for now.  Of course there's always the earnings pre-announcements to deal with as well.  But we'll stick with the technical indicators.  Short term overbought for right now and if we stay that way the rally will continue.  If not, we'll have to see how far back down the market drops.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow today and the small stocks are acting well.  So perhaps there's a little more room to the upside in the near term.  Asia was higher last night but Europe was a touch lower as Brexit is still looming on the trading minds over there.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and watch for news out of the China/US trade talks.

A run back to the upside to finish the week as the Dow roared higher by 746 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 10 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading up.  Volatility rules.  The jobs report was better than expected and the Fed said today what the market wanted to hear.  Of course something could happen over the weekend and we'll be right back down again.  That is the nature of the game we're playing right now.  My SPY January calls showed a little life today but they are solid losers.  We'll need more days like today and in a hurry to cut the loss here.  Doubtful.  The VIX is short term oversold now so going higher from here could be a problem.  We're probably still in snap back from the lows of December.  Although yesterday looked like it was a start of a retest, in reality it wasn't.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume remains heavy.  Gold fell today around eight bucks.  The US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume.  If we do get a pullback here the GDX calls could be the next trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It's an event driven market to be sure when you can go down 600 points one day and up 700 the next.  The technical indicators aren't much help when the market is being whipsawed around.  The short term indicators have turned back up but we'll see how long that lasts.  Two weeks to go in the January option cycle.  Should be interesting.  I guess my hope here is that another leg up is starting and perhaps we can make it to 2600 on the S&P.  However the McClellan oscillator should be very overbought after todays action and in need of a rest.  I'll go over the charts this weekend and try to figure out a game plan for next week.  I'm inclined to hold onto my SPY January call position for a while longer.  But the odds of it coming back from the dead again are not good.  It already happened once.  But if some good news comes out of nowhere again, who knows?  The market could be off to the races again.  One thing for sure is that you've got to pay attention.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow got clobbered today on some bad news from AAPL.  The most watched index fell 660 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were only negative though.  The summation index is moving higher still.  On such a negative day like today the A/D line should have read at least 3 or 4 to 1 negative.  This implies that the decline will not have legs.  The internals of the summation index were negative and that came through for the bears today.  My SPY January calls are dead.  I did place a limit order to sell them but it won't get hit.  It will probably be a total loss to start the new year.  A carryover hangover from last year.  But really just another bad trade.  GE was flat on good volume.  Gold continues to shine as it rose a dozen.  Getting close to $1300.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU added 1 1/4, while GDX gained 3/8.  Volume was light.  We are at some very heavy resistance for the gold shares.  I do not expect GDX to move much higher here without some backing and filling.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite that fact that I'll be starting 2019 with a trading loss.  Perhaps today was the beginning of a retest of the most recent lows for the S&P.  The internals here say that it will hold.  If we get all the way back down to the 2350 level, that would be the spot to try the January calls again.  We'll see because it would be a counter trend trade.  The trend is down and that isn't going to change anytime soon.  AAPL's disappointment could be just the beginning.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P are now starting to roll over.  We'll simply have to wait and see how bad it gets.  The jobs report will be out tomorrow.  Regardless of what it says it will probably be viewed as negative.  Perhaps we'll get to the S&P closing 20% below the all time high for a bear market sooner rather than later.  I'll just have to wait to see how things go tomorrow, exit the losing SPY January call trade and look for the next idea.  Asia and Europe were down overnight.  We'll see if they follow the US lower tonight.  I'm guessing that they will.  We'll see how the market reacts to the employment report and call it a week. 

A sloppy start to the new year as the Dow rose 18 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index has turned around and is moving back up.  We started out with a gap lower on weak news from China.  The fact that the market was able to make it all the way back is a plus but the internal readings on the summation index imply weakness ahead.  We are also making our way back to short term overbought.  My SPY January calls are firmly in the red.  The pop at the open I was expecting today did not materialize.  It looks like I'll be holding this trade into the employment report on Friday now.  GE was up 1/2 and the volume remains heavy.  Gold found buyers to start the new year.  The precious metal was up four bucks but was higher early on.  The US dollar bounced back up as well.  The XAU and GDX had fractional moves on lighter volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It could have been a disaster to begin the new year but buyers appeared for a change.  Could the decline be over?  Probably not as I do believe that we need a retest of the recent lows at the least.  I really have no choice at this point but to hold on for a few more days to the SPY January call trade.  It is in a cut the loss mode to be sure.  I sincerely doubt that we'll see a huge upside day in the near term but perhaps I'm wrong.  The only news coming out this week will be the jobs report unless the budget stalemate gets solved in a day.  I would not expect that though.  For now it will just be watch and wait for me.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed to begin the trading year.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A positive close to 2018 as the Dow gained 265 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back around to the upside.  The internal components are still weak though for this indicator.  Any advance here will most likely be short lived.  My SPY January calls are still well in the red.  The plan is to sell them on a pop up to start the new year if it occurs.  This will be a losing trade but not losing as much as it once was.  Poor timing on the entry and a trade that really should have never happened.  GE was up a few cents and the volume remains heavy here.  Gold was up a touch as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU added a point, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was above average.  There remains interest in the gold shares however GDX is at some major resistance and I don't think that it will break right through.  I could be wrong.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Glad to see the 2018 trading year end as I incurred plenty of losses.  It was my worst year ever for losing money.  Nothing I did turned out to be right.  I hung on to losers.  I let winners turn into losers.  My stop losses were hit on a regular basis.  I was not up to the challenge that is trading.  The trade that I'm going to carry over to the new year will be another loser.  But as long as it doesn't turn into a big loss I'll be satisfied that I at least did the right thing.  We'll see.  The VIX continues to fall and that's a plus for the bulls.  But I don't expect any kind of extended rally here.  There is plenty of overhead resistance on all the major stock index charts.  The S&P has a down trend line to contend with and major resistance between 2600-2650.  And we're only at 2500.  I'd expect the market to trend sideways here for a while.  Once we get a short term top here in the next few days we'll have the channel parameters.  The bottom is 2350.  Tomorrow is a holiday and we'll see how it goes on Wednesday.  Asia and Europe were generally higher in the markets that were open.  Happy New Year everybody.

A day of hanging around for a change as the Dow lost 76 points on average volume.  the advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive though.  The summation index is still moving lower but is trying to make a stand here and turn around.  The overall market was a bit stronger than the Dow.  My SPY January calls are back to losers.  The VIX was lower today despite the drop and that takes some volatility premium out of the options.  In hindsight I probably should have just dumped this trade today to simply break even.  However I still am of the belief that we'll see a pop on the open January 2nd and that will be the time to exit this ill timed trade.  I could be wrong.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume remains heavy.  Gold was up a bit and the US dollar was down a bit.  The XAU dropped 1 1/8, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Quite a volatile holiday trading week but the Dow did come back from the brink.  That low will probably have to be tested at some point.  My hope here is that this short term rally continues at the beginning of next year, which will be Wednesday.  Another short trading week is coming up.  We did just see some extremely oversold readings for the major averages which don't happen very often.  Backing and filling can be expected for a while.  I'm just hoping the filling keeps coming here in the short term.  One thing that is probably for sure though.  We won't just be going straight back up.  We're just getting started on the bear market that has been overdue.  We'll just have to see how long it's going to last.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P are a little below mid-range.  They could roll back over in the near term of they could continue higher.  I'm hoping on the latter.  Traders will come in to finish out the year on Monday, take a day off and then we'll see how the new year starts.  Could go either way.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and somehow closed higher.  The most watched index gained 260 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The Dow was off over 600 points at its lowest today and somehow made it all the way back and then some.  Encouraging price action for the bulls no doubt but it is still a down trend and bear market in my opinion.  The market is taking on a life of its own here, with no news to account for the wild price swings.  My SPY January calls have made it back to break even.  A holiday miracle to be sure.  If we can somehow get the summation index turned around, this trade could actually work.  But that hasn't happened yet and we could be down 100 points tomorrow in this kind of environment.  GE lost 1/8 and the volume remains heavy.  Only two days of tax loss selling left here.  Gold was up around five bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Quite a turnaround week for stocks so far but we do have to get through Friday.  I don't think that we're about to start a sustained new uptrend here after the pummeling that the market has taken in the past few weeks.  I'm hoping the S&P can stay afloat into the beginning of the year so I can dump my ill timed calls.  But perhaps I should just get rid of them and start the new year fresh.  Always plenty of decisions to make in this game.  I think I'll wait to see how it goes tomorrow and take it from there.  If we can get the summation index turned around my opinion will be that the decline has ended for now.  But it hasn't happened yet.  Asia was higher with the exception of Hong Kong and Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll close out the holiday week tomorrow.

The long overdue bounce finally arrived today as the Dow soared 1086 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 7 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  It was a massive rally with really no explanation except that we were extremely oversold.  Rallies that spring out of nowhere are classic bear market price action.  I believe that's what we've seen today.  My SPY January calls are still losers but not as much as they were.  Is there still hope for this trade?  Maybe but it will take another 1000 points on the upside in a hurry for it to turn a profit.  After todays price action I would not be surprised if we just hang around or drift lower before January gets going.  GE was up 1/2 and the volume was heavy.  Gold was only off a couple bucks as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX each lost about 1/2 on good volume.  It may be time for gold to take a rest if the market continues to recover.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It's a holiday week usually for the market here but these certainly aren't the usual times.  The Dow rose the most points ever today.  The extreme oversold nature of stocks is what led to todays extreme rally.  The volatility works both ways.  I don't expect another sharp rally like today happening again until perhaps the first trading day of January.  But that's just a guess as usual.  The summation index is getting about as low as it goes.  If that index does turn around here, we'll need to see some more upside.  I do think that it will turn back up here.  However that doesn't mean we won't see backing and filling along the way.  So for me to actually turn a profit on the recent trade will take some doing.  At this point I'm willing to hang on until next year.  But that could be the wrong strategy as well.  However if what I'm thinking about the summation index is true, waiting a few days here would be the right strategy.  The McClellan oscillator was blown out below -300.  It is now on its way back and trying to hit positive territory.  Whether or not it does will say a lot about where the market is going in the near term  Stay tuned for that.  Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll see if they follow the US lead tonight.

It was a holiday shortened session but the selling is relentless.  The Dow fell 653 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  There are no buyers.  Readings on some of the technical indicators are in the extreme spot they can be in.  There will be an incredible snap back from the low but we don't know where the low will be.  The VIX is incredibly overbought.  These are interesting times.  I don't know what will turn things around but something will.  A short covering rally at the least.  But for now it's just drop, drop, drop.  My SPY January calls are dead.  It's a matter of booking the loss this year or next.  GE fell about 1/4 on light volume.  Gold rallied in a flight to safety.  It gained $15 on the futures.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 1 7/8, while GDX added 3/4.  Volume was good.  Another missed trade with the GDX calls here.  Mentally I'm feeling better, finally getting over the cold/flu.  Not much else to say here on Christmas eve.  The market is really in an extraordinary funk.  The summation index is in free fall beneath the zero line and you don't see that happen too often.  Rest assured that we'll see a healthy bounce but we just don't know from what level.  I'm also not exactly sure if this will be an extended decline time wise or something like we saw in 1998 or 1987.  For now all we can do is watch and wait.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  Merry Christmas everybody.

Down, down, down she goes as the Dow lost 414 points on the heaviest volume in years.  Expiration heavy, selling heavy, who knows?  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower with a vengeance and it's already below the zero line.  I keep thinking that this can't just go on but it does.  Not even a day of rally for stocks as the bloodbath continues.  I really don't know what to say because oversold and staying that way seems beyond what we've got going here.  No bounce, no nothing.  My SPY January calls have lost half their value.  I doubt that we'll see another miracle comeback.  This was a trade that I should never have even put in.  I don't know what it will take for buyers to return.  We haven't even seen the usual short covering rally.  Interesting times.  GE lost about thirty cents and the volume remains very heavy.  Gold fell a bout eight bucks as the US dollar was stronger.  The XAU lost 1 1/8, while GDX dropped about 1/4.  Volume was a bit above average.  I'm still considering the GDX January calls but may look to February too.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, still not 100%.  Quite a week as we are in market free fall.  The sidelines are really the place to be unless you're short.  There's not telling how low this will go.  I thought 2500 might hold things and my next level was 2400.  We're almost there.  The 200 week moving average comes in at 2350.  Let's face it, it's all a guess because the market forces are beyond the numbers at this point.  The VIX closed above 30.  The McClellan oscillator will be in the negative 300's.  It could go to the negative 400's because I've seen that before.  But once we get to the bottom there, a bounce will occur.  Maybe next week, maybe not.  It will be a holiday trading week.  Normally I'd say it will be thinly traded but not in this kind of market.  Whatever upside we see probably won't be enough to save my SPY January calls though.  This has been the most bearish December that I can remember.  When the bulls don't show up for Christmas, it means nothing be trouble going forward.  And we've already seen plenty of trouble already.  So like I said, it will be interesting.  Asia was lower with the exception of Hong Kong.  Europe was up overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The decline just keeps on going as the Dow fell 464 points on extremely heavy volume again.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  I don't know how low it can go.  Buyers have disappeared in the stock market.  We are seeing a collapse and that was a slight possibility that became reality.  Just how far down we go isn't clear because we should have seen some kind of bounce and it just doesn't happen.  Blown out on all the technical indicators to the downside.  It will end eventually but in this kind of market environment it is better to just step aside.  My SPY January calls are losers but they could possibly make it back to break even when the bounce gets going.  Or not.  Oversold, staying that way and there is no bottom for now.  GE lost 1/4 and the volume remains very heavy.  Gold found buyers on the stock market decline.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 3 1/8, while GDX added 7/8.  Volume was heavy as we saw a reversal of yesterdays price drop.  I'm still going to have to wait for the short term indicators to get oversold here before attempting the GDX calls.  Gold will find buyers as long as the volatility lasts and the market keeps dropping.  Mentally I'm feeling better.  Extremely heavy volume this week so far as the players are getting things done before the holiday week to finish out 2018.  Selling is the name of the game for now.  I still think we'll see quite a bounce once it gets going.  The trouble is that it looks like there's no bottom in sight despite all the indicators that say we should have saw one already.  But the market goes where it wants.  Rallies will be sold anyway until further notice.  The VIX made it up to 30 today and I don't know how much higher it will go.  All the major indices have tops below tops and 50 day moving averages below 200 day moving averages.  So there is no guessing when it comes to what kind of trend we are in.  I'm trying the SPY calls just for a bounce but my entry timing obviously was off.  We'll see how it goes form here.  The next idea for now is going back to the SPY puts when the VIX hits 16.  That is a long way from here.  Both Europe and Asia were lower last night.  I don't see any change in that either on the horizon.  We'll see how expiration goes tomorrow as we close out the trading week.

The Fed spoke and the market didn't like what it heard.  The Dow fell 351 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Very oversold, staying that way and the long awaited bounce is way past due.  Perhaps the market will crash but I'm not betting on it.  I did place an order for the SPY January calls at a price that I did not expect to get filled.  But it did.  If 2500 is the level where the decline stops in the S&P for a while, this trade will work out.  If not, it's another loser.  We are so technically blown out here that I decided to give this idea a chance.  If we see a huge rally out of nowhere in the next couple of days, I should be out.  The price is where I bought it.  GE saw a nice gain of over 1/3 on very heavy volume.  Money is starting to come back into GE.  Gold dropped a bit, while the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU got creamed and lost 4 points.  GDX dropped 1 1/8 on very heavy volume.  Perhaps there will be a chance for the GDX January calls after all.  But I'll have to wait for the short term indicators to get oversold and they're not there yet.  Mentally I'm still a little slow.  So here I am in another trade that I certainly didn't expect.  The trend is down for stocks and I'm trying to take the other side of that.  Any kind of gain for this idea has got to be taken because we are in a very strange market environment.  Seasonality has been thrown out the window and the negative tone for equities persists.  There's plenty of time for this trade to work out but it would take a complete turnaround of the current market psychology for that to happen.  I just don't see it at this point.  Like I said, if 2500 is the stopping point for now, the trade could work.  But you can easily make a case for 2400 too.  I'm not sure what I was thinking when I put the order in but I did not expect that it would be filled.  We'll just have to see where things go from here.  With the oversold condition at the moment, being as extreme at it is, there is a chance for success.  We'll see.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in overnight trade.  We'll keep an eye on how these markets react to the Fed tonight.  

Some bouncing around today as the market decides what to do with itself here.  The Dow rose 82 points on pretty heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues lower.  We're still very oversold any way you look at it.  I think we'll see a decent bounce tomorrow regardless what the Fed does.  The market rarely stays this oversold for this long unless we're going to crash.  I do not see that coming up.  I am looking out to the SPY January calls here and may purchase some tomorrow morning.  The VIX remains elevated and is at the top of its recent channel.  If it does break out to the upside things could get real ugly.  But I don't think that will happen.  GE was up 1/8, pretty heavy volume but came off of the highs.  Gold was up just a bit and the US dollar a bit lower.  The XAU added about 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  GDX is breaking out above its 200 day moving average.  The rally in the gold shares seems to be for real.  However there is plenty of resistance between the 21 and 22 levels.  We just crossed 21 today.  Mentally I'm still under the weather and not at full speed.  You really need to be in decent health to play this game at your best.  The Fed will come and go tomorrow.  The market will react and then we'll move on.  The selling has been very relentless during a normally bullish period.  That is not a positive sign.  We are way overdue for some upside but whatever it is it probably won't last.  I may try to play the bounce but a better idea is waiting for the VIX to move down to 16 and then trying some SPY puts.  We'll see if I have the patience for that.  The gold shares look like another possible trade on a pullback.  It is a seasonally strong time now for them and that is coming true this year.  Tomorrow should be interesting but I would not be surprised by a huge rally due to the oversold technical condition of the market.  After that, who knows?  Asia and Europe were both lower in last nights trade as they wait for the Fed decision as well.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The market got pounded lower again today as the Dow fell 507 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 6 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  We are very oversold and staying that way.  A bounce is overdue but it probably won't hold.  I did even consider getting some SPY December calls for the week.  But I stayed out.  We've broken all the S&P support and there isn't much else to say about that.  I can make a case for the S&P to stop at around the 2500 level.  But in this kind of market that defies the indicators, anything can happen.  RUT continues to lead the way down.  We'll get the Fed announcement in a couple days and anything can happen after that too.  Buyers have disappeared for now.  It's another 10% correction you'll hear but make no mistake.  The bull market is over and we'll have to wait for the bear to finish before we can really be positive about the trend again.  GE was actually up a nickel on the usual heavy volume that we've seen here for quite a while.  I just went ahead and bought GE today, as this will be a long term hold and I do believe that it will be well worth it in the years to come.  Gold was up today as the US dollar traded lower.  The XAU was up by over 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was good.  It does not look like there will be a pullback here for the gold shares in order to try the GDX January calls.  Mentally I'm still not up to snuff as this cold/flu will not go away.  The market doesn't care though.  Oversold any way you look at it but there hasn't been a hint of any kind of sustained rally.  We did have a little bounce at the end of the day of over 100 points but that was probably short covering ahead of the Fed.  Any way you look at things here it doesn't bode well for the stock market.  In what is usually one of the most bullish time periods all we are getting is selling.  We also now have lower lows with lower highs on the charts.  I thin that the next idea will be to try the SPY puts when the VIX gets back to the 16 level.  That seems to be the level where the selling starts.  Another idea would be for the SPY puts if it makes it back up to the declining tops line on the daily chart.  Right here though I'm looking for some kind of bounce because the oversold readings on some of the indicators are at extremes.  Unless we get some kind of crash out of nowhere but that possibility at this stage is remote.  Asia was higher overnight and Europe lower but not to the extent of the US decline.  We'll see what happens overseas tonight.

We finished the week on a downer as the Dow dropped 496 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The market tried to rally this week, had a weak bounce and rolled over again.  It must know something that we don't.  Short term oversold and staying that way.  The fact that the summation index made it back to the zero line and was turned away is a huge negative as well on a technical basis.  Option expiration week is coming up along with the Fed announcement.  I'd expect to see some kind of upside at some point but it probably won't last.  RUT has broken down as well.  We have yet to see the wash out bottom that we need to get rid of all the sellers.  Not sure if that will happen any time soon either.  I guess we can hope for the Santa Claus rally.  But it appears that the long bull market has finally come to an end.  GE lost a dime and volume remains heavy.  I'm guessing that we've seen the low here at 6.75 and I'm going to try and buy some of this issue on Monday for a long term play.  Gold fell over $5 as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU dropped 1 1/8, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was average.  If the gold shares get oversold I may again try to get some GDX January calls.  Mentally I'm still not feeling right, tired and need to get rid of this cold/flu.  We closed lower for the week on the S&P and things will get even uglier if we don't turn around here soon.  This is the last area of support right here and now.  Oversold and staying there is not a good sign.  No seasonal strength is not a good sign.  A return to the falling summation index and RUT leading the way down all point to even more trouble going forward.  The elevated VIX isn't helping things either.  I'm pretty much on the sidelines until next year at this point.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend but the risk of trying to get long here is too high for me.  I'm pretty sure that we will see a decent bounce next week but trying to time it will be difficult.  This is the last week before the holidays so you can figure all that needs to be done before the end of year will be taking place.  It should be interesting to say the least.  Europe and Asia were both lower to finish out the week there.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

A mixed bag today but the Dow managed a gain of 70 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still tracking lower.  The NASDAQ was lower today along with RUT.  That isn't a good sign for the bulls.  I'm not exactly sure what's driving prices here.  We've broken down from the near term support in RUT.  The other indices are trying to hang in there for now.  We need to see some upside soon or there's a chance the overall market will break support and roll over here as well.  RUT is generally the leader and has already found fresh lows.  GE got a bump on an analyst recommendation.  It rose 1/2 on extremely heavy volume.  Gold was slightly lower with the US dollar just the opposite.  The XAU and GDX had minute gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm still slow, not 100% and feeling tired.  I am again going to cut the blog short today.  Asia was higher and Europe slightly lower last night.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

A rally to start the day but it tailed off again.  The Dow did gain 157 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around again.  I think that the market is being held hostage by the Brexit drama out of England at the moment.  We did expect a bounce and got it today.  Whether or not it has any staying power remains to be seen.  Volatility still rules the day and with that backdrop no rally is safe.  The usual seasonal bullishness is absent and that is a problem for the bulls.  GE was off a nickel and the volume remains heavy.  Gold was up a bit today as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX rose 3/8.  Volume was good.  The gold shares are overbought and staying that way.  If GDX can get through 20.5 there should be more room to run.  Mentally I'm still a bit off, not feeling well again.  I'm tired with some kind of cold or flu and the concentration just isn't there.  I'll be cutting the blog short again but the basic bearish theme remains.  Europe and Asia rallied overnight.  We'll see what comes out of England tomorrow.

It as an up and down session to be sure and the Dow ended with a loss of 53 points on good volume.  the advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The market opened up around 300 points higher but could not hold on.  Not sure exactly what is going on here but it isn't positive for the bulls.  This is normally a very good time for the market but this year is different.  The VIX remains elevated and volatility is now the rule.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind here at the moment.  We are short term oversold though.  Even if we get a pop to the upside here the overall tone is bearish.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume remains very heavy.  Perhaps some tax loss selling going on here.  I'm still looking to purchase GE down here for a longer term investment.  There has been so much bad news here and the dividend has been cut as far as it can go.  I do not think that this company will simply fold but I could be wrong.  Gold was a bit lower and the US dollar a bit higher today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses again on good volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, still not feeling well.  In a way we're still waiting for the market to figure out what it wants to do here.  But I must say that all the technical evidence points to bearish conclusions.  It appears that the market has found its top and is in the process of rolling over.  Even though we are short term oversold any rally will probably be sold into.  The game has obviously changed.  If we can ever get below the 15-16 level on the VIX, then I'd say we're back to the bull case.  However that does not appear to be in the cards anytime soon.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow, which was down 500 points, made it all the way back to finish with a gain of 34.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative though.  Volume remains heavy.  The summation index is moving lower.  Perhaps today it was short term bottom that was put in but there's no telling in this volatile market.  The VIX almost made it to 26.  RUT was negative but could be at a short term bottom along with the TRAN.  We'll have to see how it plays out from here.  GE was off a few cents and closed below 7.  I do have an order in to buy the stock at lower levels but it isn't a trade, it will be long term.  Gold was off a couple bucks and the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on OK volume.  Mentally I'm feeling tired and I have a chest cold so I'm not up to snuff.  You cannot make the proper decisions when your health isn't where it's supposed to be.  I'm also going to cut the blog short to get some more rest.  We saw a comeback in stocks two days ago and then we simply headed right back down.  The market is more oversold this time around, so perhaps we can get a few days of rally.  Support has broken down though and numerous indices have had their 50 day moving average drop below their 200 day.  The back drop for stocks here is negative.  Europe and Asia both traded lower last night.

Another downer on Wall Street as the Dow fell 558 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index has turned lower.  The jobs report was a bit light.  After a brief rally the market nosedived, which negated whatever positive price action we saw with yesterdays comeback.  The RUT broke below its recent support and that is a harbinger of lower prices for the rest of the indices in my opinion.  There will be no miracle comeback for the bulls in the near future.  I dumped my SPY December calls for a 90 % loss.  They had a 50% gain on Monday.  But that is the nature of the game and goes along with what is my worst year of trading that I can remember.  Like I've said, I don't really know what's going on here but the market is never wrong.  There's still two weeks left in the December option cycle, so it's possible that I'll try another trade but I doubt it.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume remains heavy.  Gold was up on the futures and we've broken resistance at $1240.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2 on heavier volume.  The gold shares are looking like the place to be but I think that it's too late for that trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The S&P is back to its near term support on the daily chart.  The indicators are just about oversold.  The weekly chart looks terrible with a very large bearish engulfing pattern on the candlestick version.  Also on the daily chart the 50 day moving average just crossed over the 200 day moving average to the downside.  The technical picture for the S&P is negative.  The VIX is getting overbought but isn't completely there yet.  I really don't see any good news coming from anywhere to turn this thing around in the near term.  All the good news came out early in the past week.  I guess there isn't much more for me to do here except lick my wounds and move on.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Volatility rules.  We were off almost 800 points today but the Dow came back and finished with a loss of 79 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is heading sideways but trying to turn down.  New lows expanded to there biggest total recently.  The VIX spiked to almost 26 then backed off.  The market did hold where the double bottom lows were but it doesn't feel as though things will hold up here.  The NASDAQ did manage a gain which is quite something on a day like this.  I don't know the reason for all the selling but you cannot ignore the price action.  Something is going on.  My SPY December calls are still dead.  GE was actually up a few cents on heavy volume.  Perhaps GE is sold out here.  I mean what's left to go wrong with that stock?  Gold finished flat on the day and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on OK volume.  I canceled my open order for the GDX January calls.  If GDX gets to the bottom of the recent trading range, I might try this idea again.  But I decided that with all the recent craziness I'd simply step aside.  Mentally I'm a little side tracked, with outside the market everyday issues taking up some of my mental time.  Nothing serious like the hospital incident of a couple years ago.  We'll get the jobs report tomorrow and that should set the tone for the day.  Today price action did have the make up of a bottom.  But we won't know for sure until we see what happens from here.  If we rally tomorrow you could make a case for a short term bottom at least.  However if we drop back down and break the recent lows you can be sure that more trouble is on the way.  I think that it is safe to say that at the moment the market is out of control.  That is not a bullish scenario.  Still two weeks left in the December option cycle.  The trade I'm in already had one miracle comeback, could another be in store?  Highly unlikely but the market does go where it wants to.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow and take it from there.  Europe and Asia got clocked last night after Tuesdays US debacle.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and close put the trading week tomorrow. 

The Dow got clobbered today as it dropped 799 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving up but at this rate it will turn back down soon.  The VIX has spiked back up above 20.  All the positive market action of the past week has been erased.  Volatility rules and it's both ways.  The S&P had good volume on the break above the declining tops line and we have plowed right back under that line.  The double bottom that was in place has been negated.  I don't know what the real story is for todays price action because there was no news to cause it.  The market knows things that we don't so be prepared for something out of the blue.  My SPY December calls that were showing a profit yesterday are now back to dead.  That's how quick things can turn in the game.  I guess we know now to take our cues from the VIX.  If it gets back to 16 again, get short.  We were short term overbought but certainly could not have predicted this kind of day off of that.  RUT is usually the leader and it got crushed.  Another day like today will take it to fresh lows.  Keep an eye on it.  GE lost 1/2 on very heavy volume.  I'm looking for a long term trade here by actually buying the stock at some point this month.  Gold was off a couple backs as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves higher on OK volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm not sure what is going on here and when that's the case it is best to just step aside.  The markets will be closed tomorrow due to the death of former president George H.W. Bush.  That will give the rest of the world time to digest what we saw happen in the US today.  I would expect selling around the globe.  As for the S&P, there is plenty of room to move down on the technical indicators and I would not be surprised to see this sell off continue.  Once again, I don't know the reasons and the market does.  When things are looking to go one way and they turn around and do the opposite you must take notice.  The market is telling us something here that it knows and will probably be revealed in due time.  One day doesn't make a trend and yes after the US/China agreement perhaps all the good news was out there.  But buyers never stepped in today and there's got to be a reason for that.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight with the exception of Hong Kong.  We'll take a day off tomorrow and brace for Thursday morning.

We got a rally out of the US/China developments as the Dow rose 287 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  This is good news for the bulls because the S&P 500 has broken through the declining tops line that began in October.  The volume was good so the break is for real.  We are at near term resistance of 2800, so a pause here would not be out of the question.  The short term technical indicators are also overbought.  So stalling for a while or a drop lower from here would be acceptable.  My SPY December calls are now showing a profit.  Of course waiting for the double bottom would have been the much better play.  But I'll take what I can get if this trade does pan out.  The measurement of the double bottom would take us to new all time highs but I don't know if that will occur before expiration on the 21st.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume remains very heavy.  Gold was higher today along with the US dollar.  The XAU added 1 1/3, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was a bit above average.  I still have my open order in for the GDX January calls.  Once again , it would take some decline to get this filled.  The gold shares don't seem to be moving much either way right now and I may consider canceling this idea.  Mentally I'm feeling a little tired, did not sleep well.  The VIX has now reached its 200 day moving average and the 16 level.  What happens here must be watched.  If we break and close below the 200 day moving average that would be a good sign for the bulls.  But we are short term oversold on this indicator.  A move up in volatility and a move lower for stocks in the near term is very possible.  But if we continue higher and the VIX continues to drop, the rally will have legs.  The positive action in the summation index is another plus along with the seasonal bullishness.  My guess is that the decline is over but I'd like to see some better action in RUT to be completely sure.  Europe and Asia rallied as well.  Money is coming back into stocks around the world.  We'll see how long that lasts.