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Tuesday, December 04, 2018

The Dow got clobbered today as it dropped 799 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving up but at this rate it will turn back down soon.  The VIX has spiked back up above 20.  All the positive market action of the past week has been erased.  Volatility rules and it's both ways.  The S&P had good volume on the break above the declining tops line and we have plowed right back under that line.  The double bottom that was in place has been negated.  I don't know what the real story is for todays price action because there was no news to cause it.  The market knows things that we don't so be prepared for something out of the blue.  My SPY December calls that were showing a profit yesterday are now back to dead.  That's how quick things can turn in the game.  I guess we know now to take our cues from the VIX.  If it gets back to 16 again, get short.  We were short term overbought but certainly could not have predicted this kind of day off of that.  RUT is usually the leader and it got crushed.  Another day like today will take it to fresh lows.  Keep an eye on it.  GE lost 1/2 on very heavy volume.  I'm looking for a long term trade here by actually buying the stock at some point this month.  Gold was off a couple backs as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves higher on OK volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm not sure what is going on here and when that's the case it is best to just step aside.  The markets will be closed tomorrow due to the death of former president George H.W. Bush.  That will give the rest of the world time to digest what we saw happen in the US today.  I would expect selling around the globe.  As for the S&P, there is plenty of room to move down on the technical indicators and I would not be surprised to see this sell off continue.  Once again, I don't know the reasons and the market does.  When things are looking to go one way and they turn around and do the opposite you must take notice.  The market is telling us something here that it knows and will probably be revealed in due time.  One day doesn't make a trend and yes after the US/China agreement perhaps all the good news was out there.  But buyers never stepped in today and there's got to be a reason for that.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight with the exception of Hong Kong.  We'll take a day off tomorrow and brace for Thursday morning.

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