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Friday, December 14, 2018

We finished the week on a downer as the Dow dropped 496 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The market tried to rally this week, had a weak bounce and rolled over again.  It must know something that we don't.  Short term oversold and staying that way.  The fact that the summation index made it back to the zero line and was turned away is a huge negative as well on a technical basis.  Option expiration week is coming up along with the Fed announcement.  I'd expect to see some kind of upside at some point but it probably won't last.  RUT has broken down as well.  We have yet to see the wash out bottom that we need to get rid of all the sellers.  Not sure if that will happen any time soon either.  I guess we can hope for the Santa Claus rally.  But it appears that the long bull market has finally come to an end.  GE lost a dime and volume remains heavy.  I'm guessing that we've seen the low here at 6.75 and I'm going to try and buy some of this issue on Monday for a long term play.  Gold fell over $5 as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU dropped 1 1/8, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was average.  If the gold shares get oversold I may again try to get some GDX January calls.  Mentally I'm still not feeling right, tired and need to get rid of this cold/flu.  We closed lower for the week on the S&P and things will get even uglier if we don't turn around here soon.  This is the last area of support right here and now.  Oversold and staying there is not a good sign.  No seasonal strength is not a good sign.  A return to the falling summation index and RUT leading the way down all point to even more trouble going forward.  The elevated VIX isn't helping things either.  I'm pretty much on the sidelines until next year at this point.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend but the risk of trying to get long here is too high for me.  I'm pretty sure that we will see a decent bounce next week but trying to time it will be difficult.  This is the last week before the holidays so you can figure all that needs to be done before the end of year will be taking place.  It should be interesting to say the least.  Europe and Asia were both lower to finish out the week there.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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