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Tuesday, December 11, 2018

It as an up and down session to be sure and the Dow ended with a loss of 53 points on good volume.  the advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The market opened up around 300 points higher but could not hold on.  Not sure exactly what is going on here but it isn't positive for the bulls.  This is normally a very good time for the market but this year is different.  The VIX remains elevated and volatility is now the rule.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind here at the moment.  We are short term oversold though.  Even if we get a pop to the upside here the overall tone is bearish.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume remains very heavy.  Perhaps some tax loss selling going on here.  I'm still looking to purchase GE down here for a longer term investment.  There has been so much bad news here and the dividend has been cut as far as it can go.  I do not think that this company will simply fold but I could be wrong.  Gold was a bit lower and the US dollar a bit higher today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses again on good volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, still not feeling well.  In a way we're still waiting for the market to figure out what it wants to do here.  But I must say that all the technical evidence points to bearish conclusions.  It appears that the market has found its top and is in the process of rolling over.  Even though we are short term oversold any rally will probably be sold into.  The game has obviously changed.  If we can ever get below the 15-16 level on the VIX, then I'd say we're back to the bull case.  However that does not appear to be in the cards anytime soon.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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