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Monday, December 17, 2018

The market got pounded lower again today as the Dow fell 507 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 6 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  We are very oversold and staying that way.  A bounce is overdue but it probably won't hold.  I did even consider getting some SPY December calls for the week.  But I stayed out.  We've broken all the S&P support and there isn't much else to say about that.  I can make a case for the S&P to stop at around the 2500 level.  But in this kind of market that defies the indicators, anything can happen.  RUT continues to lead the way down.  We'll get the Fed announcement in a couple days and anything can happen after that too.  Buyers have disappeared for now.  It's another 10% correction you'll hear but make no mistake.  The bull market is over and we'll have to wait for the bear to finish before we can really be positive about the trend again.  GE was actually up a nickel on the usual heavy volume that we've seen here for quite a while.  I just went ahead and bought GE today, as this will be a long term hold and I do believe that it will be well worth it in the years to come.  Gold was up today as the US dollar traded lower.  The XAU was up by over 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was good.  It does not look like there will be a pullback here for the gold shares in order to try the GDX January calls.  Mentally I'm still not up to snuff as this cold/flu will not go away.  The market doesn't care though.  Oversold any way you look at it but there hasn't been a hint of any kind of sustained rally.  We did have a little bounce at the end of the day of over 100 points but that was probably short covering ahead of the Fed.  Any way you look at things here it doesn't bode well for the stock market.  In what is usually one of the most bullish time periods all we are getting is selling.  We also now have lower lows with lower highs on the charts.  I thin that the next idea will be to try the SPY puts when the VIX gets back to the 16 level.  That seems to be the level where the selling starts.  Another idea would be for the SPY puts if it makes it back up to the declining tops line on the daily chart.  Right here though I'm looking for some kind of bounce because the oversold readings on some of the indicators are at extremes.  Unless we get some kind of crash out of nowhere but that possibility at this stage is remote.  Asia was higher overnight and Europe lower but not to the extent of the US decline.  We'll see what happens overseas tonight.

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