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Monday, December 03, 2018

We got a rally out of the US/China developments as the Dow rose 287 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  This is good news for the bulls because the S&P 500 has broken through the declining tops line that began in October.  The volume was good so the break is for real.  We are at near term resistance of 2800, so a pause here would not be out of the question.  The short term technical indicators are also overbought.  So stalling for a while or a drop lower from here would be acceptable.  My SPY December calls are now showing a profit.  Of course waiting for the double bottom would have been the much better play.  But I'll take what I can get if this trade does pan out.  The measurement of the double bottom would take us to new all time highs but I don't know if that will occur before expiration on the 21st.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume remains very heavy.  Gold was higher today along with the US dollar.  The XAU added 1 1/3, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was a bit above average.  I still have my open order in for the GDX January calls.  Once again , it would take some decline to get this filled.  The gold shares don't seem to be moving much either way right now and I may consider canceling this idea.  Mentally I'm feeling a little tired, did not sleep well.  The VIX has now reached its 200 day moving average and the 16 level.  What happens here must be watched.  If we break and close below the 200 day moving average that would be a good sign for the bulls.  But we are short term oversold on this indicator.  A move up in volatility and a move lower for stocks in the near term is very possible.  But if we continue higher and the VIX continues to drop, the rally will have legs.  The positive action in the summation index is another plus along with the seasonal bullishness.  My guess is that the decline is over but I'd like to see some better action in RUT to be completely sure.  Europe and Asia rallied as well.  Money is coming back into stocks around the world.  We'll see how long that lasts.      

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