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Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Some bouncing around today as the market decides what to do with itself here.  The Dow rose 82 points on pretty heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues lower.  We're still very oversold any way you look at it.  I think we'll see a decent bounce tomorrow regardless what the Fed does.  The market rarely stays this oversold for this long unless we're going to crash.  I do not see that coming up.  I am looking out to the SPY January calls here and may purchase some tomorrow morning.  The VIX remains elevated and is at the top of its recent channel.  If it does break out to the upside things could get real ugly.  But I don't think that will happen.  GE was up 1/8, pretty heavy volume but came off of the highs.  Gold was up just a bit and the US dollar a bit lower.  The XAU added about 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  GDX is breaking out above its 200 day moving average.  The rally in the gold shares seems to be for real.  However there is plenty of resistance between the 21 and 22 levels.  We just crossed 21 today.  Mentally I'm still under the weather and not at full speed.  You really need to be in decent health to play this game at your best.  The Fed will come and go tomorrow.  The market will react and then we'll move on.  The selling has been very relentless during a normally bullish period.  That is not a positive sign.  We are way overdue for some upside but whatever it is it probably won't last.  I may try to play the bounce but a better idea is waiting for the VIX to move down to 16 and then trying some SPY puts.  We'll see if I have the patience for that.  The gold shares look like another possible trade on a pullback.  It is a seasonally strong time now for them and that is coming true this year.  Tomorrow should be interesting but I would not be surprised by a huge rally due to the oversold technical condition of the market.  After that, who knows?  Asia and Europe were both lower in last nights trade as they wait for the Fed decision as well.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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