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Wednesday, December 26, 2018

The long overdue bounce finally arrived today as the Dow soared 1086 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 7 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  It was a massive rally with really no explanation except that we were extremely oversold.  Rallies that spring out of nowhere are classic bear market price action.  I believe that's what we've seen today.  My SPY January calls are still losers but not as much as they were.  Is there still hope for this trade?  Maybe but it will take another 1000 points on the upside in a hurry for it to turn a profit.  After todays price action I would not be surprised if we just hang around or drift lower before January gets going.  GE was up 1/2 and the volume was heavy.  Gold was only off a couple bucks as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX each lost about 1/2 on good volume.  It may be time for gold to take a rest if the market continues to recover.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It's a holiday week usually for the market here but these certainly aren't the usual times.  The Dow rose the most points ever today.  The extreme oversold nature of stocks is what led to todays extreme rally.  The volatility works both ways.  I don't expect another sharp rally like today happening again until perhaps the first trading day of January.  But that's just a guess as usual.  The summation index is getting about as low as it goes.  If that index does turn around here, we'll need to see some more upside.  I do think that it will turn back up here.  However that doesn't mean we won't see backing and filling along the way.  So for me to actually turn a profit on the recent trade will take some doing.  At this point I'm willing to hang on until next year.  But that could be the wrong strategy as well.  However if what I'm thinking about the summation index is true, waiting a few days here would be the right strategy.  The McClellan oscillator was blown out below -300.  It is now on its way back and trying to hit positive territory.  Whether or not it does will say a lot about where the market is going in the near term  Stay tuned for that.  Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll see if they follow the US lead tonight.

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