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Tuesday, February 12, 2019

The market took off to the upside today as the Dow climbed 372 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Looks like a deal to keep the US government open will happen.  I certainly missed the SPY February call trade that I was looking for by a day.  Perhaps if I was paying better attention yesterday I would have pulled the trigger on that trade.  But it was missed and it's on to the next idea.  Looks like I'll have to sit on the sidelines for now until the technical indicators line up.  I am looking at the SPY March puts now.  The market is overbought and has been for weeks.  This is a condition that will eventually reverse.  When is the question and by how much?  For now the positive expiration week bias should last the next couple of days.  GE was off a nickel and the volume is lighter than it's been  Gold finished flat on the day despite a drop in the US dollar.  The XAU had a fractional loss, while GDX was flat.  Volume was very light.  I did think about trying the GDX February calls today for a very short term trade since Barrick Gold will report earnings tomorrow.  But that seemed more like a bet than an actual trading idea so I held off.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Missing trades is part of the game but that doesn't make it any easier to swallow.  At least my ideas are trending in the right direction for a change.  Doesn't mean much if you can't capitalize though.  Now the hard part of waiting for the next set up is here.  Long holiday weekend coming up and I'm not exactly sure if I want to be short going into that.  Right now it looks like waiting until Wednesday or Thursday of next week to try the puts is the best scenario.  But will the market cooperate?  It rarely does.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight as money is finding its way back into stocks around the globe.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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