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Monday, February 04, 2019

Another day another gain as the Dow rose 175 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues to move up.  The short term overbought condition persists and the market keeps climbing.  I think at this point it's safe to say that the V bottom is for real and there will be no retest.  That said, I did try the SPY February puts this morning.  When it appeared that this was obviously the wrong choice, I sold what I had purchased for a 20% loss.  As the market moved higher I went to a higher strike price for the puts and tried this idea again.  I'm holding on overnight with a slight loss at the moment.  The stop loss order has been placed.  If this does get stopped out tomorrow I guess I'll forget about getting short.  GOOG reports after the bell and that should drive things early tomorrow morning.  GE was up a couple cents and the volume remains heavy.  Gold fell five bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional losses on average volume.  Money continues to seek out the gold shares here.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  It seems like I'm still married to this idea that the market has to drop here.  Overbought for days now and we've broken through resistance but I still can't let go of the idea that things need to take a break on the upside.  We're just about at the 200 day moving average for the S&P.  But the small stocks have been acting well here and I seem to be ignoring that.  Perhaps I'm not really listening to the technical indicators as I should.  Maybe I'm just anxious for another winning trade since I just had one.  Whatever the case, I will head to the sidelines if the current SPY put trade gets stopped out tomorrow as it appears it will be barring some unforeseen development overnight.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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