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Friday, February 15, 2019

Right back to the upside for option expiration as the Dow soared 443 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  It appears that all selling is met with buyers.  We're still short term overbought with no end in sight for that condition.  But we know that this can't go on forever.  Again, no real news to speak of just more US/China tariff rumors of no substance.  It doesn't matter.  There is money to be invested and it's going into stocks.  Yes I'm still considering the SPY March puts but at this rate it doesn't look like a good idea.  I'll go over my work this long weekend and take it from there.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold climbed $9 on the futures as the US dollar was bit lower again.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX added almost 1/3.  Volume was pretty light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX closed below 15 and has been oversold for weeks.  It simply implies more gains to come for stocks.  It is pretty amazing but at some point something has to give.  Knowing when that point is presents the challenge.  Will 2800 provide the stopping point for the S&P or are we just going to continue to move higher?  We are right at the 200 day moving averages for some of the stock indices and have broken through there on others.  The market is acting as though there's no end in sight for the rally.  I should probably wait for some type of negative divergence before trying the puts but sometimes there are none.  Plenty to think about this weekend.  I do think that it is too late for the calls now.  The run up into the February expiration wasn't a surprise.  Can we repeat the same thing in March?  Stay tuned.  Perhaps we are simply going to continue the run and make new all time highs.  I think when you start hearing that tossed around, then it will be a good time to try the SPY puts.  Just a guess as usual.  Asia was down to finish the week and Europe was higher.  A long weekend to try and come up with a plan for next week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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