It was another downer for the Dow today as it got clobbered and fell 315 points on once again heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  We closed on the lows of the day and that isn't bullish.  The S&P 500 is just about at 2000, where I believe support will kick in.  But perhaps I'm just off the mark here.  Maybe there is some disaster in the markets waiting to happen.  Technically, I just don't see it.  The small stocks are holding up relatively better.  The reverse head and shoulders patterns that I anticipate are still in place.  Granted, if we see another week as negative as this one next week, I'll have to change my tune.  But for now this decline to me is a breather on the way to higher prices and a good start to the new year.  We'll see.  GE was off 1/2 and the volume was heavy.  This drop occurred despite GE raising its dividend.  In a normal market with this kind of positive development, a nice price spike would occur.  But selling was the theme of the day.  The March GE calls that I own are now in the red.  If I do get stopped out of this trade I will probably try it again at a different strike price.  Hasn't happened yet.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was lower as well.  Disappointing to not see gold get a bid with the recent market turmoil.  It certainly isn't a positive.  The XAU slid another 1 1/4.  ABX off 1/3, with GG and NEM losing 1/2.  Volume was a little better today.  My ABX January calls are barely in the black.  This is a trade that should have been closed out weeks ago.  Five weeks to go in the January option cycle and two of those week will be holiday mode.  Mentally I'm feeling OK but still a bit under the weather physically.  Where do we go from here will be the question thought about over the weekend.  Support for the Dow is close at hand around 17200.  Previous tops and the 50 day moving average are around this level.  Will the support hold is now the question.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The McClellan oscillator is getting pretty oversold.  But that doesn't mean that it can't get more oversold.  I'm still looking for the stock indexes to stabilize next week though.  I could be wrong.  Gold is short term overbought right now, with the gold shares moving into oversold territory.  Not really a clear picture of what to expect there.  The USO trade that I am thinking about maybe just isn't a good idea.  This issue is in a free fall on heavy volume.  I suppose I have been fortunate enough to not have tried anything yet.  I suppose if it makes it all the way to $20, I'll consider it.  The snap back here will probably be pretty dramatic when it comes.  There will be a lot to consider over the weekend and hopefully my overall health will return back to normal.  I'll be the first to admit that my thinking has been rather slow this past week.  That won't cut it in this game or any other.  As always the market doesn't care and goes where it wants.  Plenty of research to be done over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Volatility is back as the Dow gained 63 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trending lower.  The Dow did have a 200 point gain at some time early in the session.  Can't say I know exactly what is taking place here.  But I'm sticking with the thesis that this sets things up for a rally into the new year.  I'm also a believer of the reverse head and shoulders patterns being formed on some of the major stock indices daily charts.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was good.  The GE March calls that I own are back to break even.  Plenty of time for this trade to work itself out.  Gold was off $3 on the futures as the US dollar bounced back.  The XAU dropped another point.  ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM had a fractional gain.  Volume was light.  Sideways is the most that we can hope for the gold shares here.  The short term technical indicators are neither overbought or oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  Cannot shake this cold/flu.  Declines can still be purchased in my opinion.  I'm still looking for a good start to the new year for stocks.  Six days to go in the December option cycle.  I have no index option trades in mind for the S&P at the moment.  USO continues to drop.  I'm looking but not buying just yet.  Oversold and staying there for this issue and that is dangerous.  The CRB continues to drop as well.  Gold continues to hang in there for now.  But I don't see any huge rallies coming.  We'll watch the overnight action and finish out the week tomorrow.

Well, we got a decline today as the Dow fell 268 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative.  Markets around the world a beginning to drop.  The summation index is heading lower.  I still don't think this is the beginning of any sustained decline.  It would help if we can hold things up right around here.  Let me be the first to say that the look on the daily candlestick charts of some of the major averages to me is a reverse head and shoulder pattern.  That implies higher prices going out in time.  I do not think that we are going to retest the lows from October or anything even close to that.  But who knows?  The markets go where they want.  GE fell another 1/3 and the volume was heavy here as well.  The GE March calls that I purchased yesterday are slightly under water.  I still like this trade and think that in time it will prove to be a good move.  Gold fell a couple bucks on the futures despite a drop in the US dollar.  That isn't s good sign for the gold bulls.  The XAU fell 2 1/3 after trying to show some life early.  ABX shed 1/8, while GG and NEM fell over 1/2.  Volume was lighter here.  The gold shares basically ended up following the overall market.  Mentally and physically I'm tired, still not close to feeling 100%.  It affects the trading to be sure.  I should be OK by next week.  The markets don't care.  USO continues to plunge and the volume today was extremely heavy.  Maybe it's about time to step up to the plate here but I will have to wait until next week at least.  Oversold and staying there on a daily and weekly basis for this issue.  The snap back should be pretty violent if you can pick the bottom.  The major stock indexes are moving to short term oversold territory.  Not so much so on a weekly basis.  The summation index heading lower should be where we take our cues from.  Perhaps the S&P 500 can see some support at the 50 day moving average at around 2000.  That is my best guess at the moment.  Both gold and silver are now overbought.  Sideways is the most we can expect near term.  There was no flight to safety here despite a lower dollar and a decent decline in the stock market.  The gold shares continue to disappoint.  We'll have to watch the overseas markets tonight and see if they continue lower.  Once again, I don't think that this is anything to worry about.  Or perhaps since that's what I think you should.  But you could make those assumptions on any day about any thing.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Another crazy session as the Dow was off over 200 points early but came back to finish the day lower by 51.  Volume was heavy again and the advance/declines were positive.  The small stocks fared much better than the Dow and that is a positive.  Declines continue to be bought.  That is the theme for now and I expect it to continue.  The summation index is moving lower but I don't think it will turn into some type of market rout.  We are setting up for the rally that will appear in the new year.  That is my guess at the moment.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was good.  My open order for the GE March calls was filled early when GE tanked with the overall market.  I have the stop loss order in place.  This trade has plenty of time to work and I am very positive that this will turn into a decent profit.  I could be wrong.  Gold soared on fear when the stock indices dropped on the open.  The precious metal futures rose $35 as the US dollar was lower again.  Gold has now risen above its 50 day moving average.  Ditto for silver, which had a good session as well.  The gold shares didn't move as much as I would have liked though.  The XAU gained 3 1/8.  ABX up 1/2, while GG and NEM added around 7/8.  Volume was decent.  My ABX January calls are back in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling OK but I'm still feeling ill from the cold/flu.  Not being 100% makes for tough trading but thankfully there isn't a lot of thought to be done with what I have going on right now.  Todays market comeback only solidifies the idea that dips are to be purchased.  There will be plenty of time to develop new trades when I'm feeling better.  I'm still thinking about the USO February calls.  Today was a great day for gold and silver but the precious metal shares lagged.  That is not a positive.  I'll be keeping an eye on it.  We'll watch the overnight action and see what tomorrow brings.

An interesting start to the week as the Dow fell 105 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  We were off 150 at on point during the session.  Todays action should turn the summation index down.  I would not worry about any kind of big decline here.  My opinion is that we are simply setting things up for the next rally to begin at the start of the new year.  GE dropped 1/3 on good volume.  My open order for the March calls here is close to being filled.  Another down day tomorrow and it will get hit most likely.  Gold turned around to the upside during the trading day and were $5 on the futures, more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was lower today.  The XAU was flat on the day after being lower early.  The same price action occurred with ABX, GG and NEM.  Volume was good for the gold shares.  My ABX January calls got all the way back to what I paid for them before finishing slightly in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling tired and physically I have a cold/flu.  Trading is tough enough to begin with and being sick isn't going to help.  Trading decisions now will be kept to a minimum.  I'm still considering the USO February calls but that issue continues to simply drop.  The overall stock indices are taking a breather here.  Weakness will be bought in my opinion.  If you have any call trades for the beginning of next year, now is the time to be looking to buy.  I could be wrong and often am.  However I think next year will be positive for stocks, with a decent lift off in January.  Gold has been holding up near the $1200 range despite a lot of not so good news for it lately.  Perhaps it can get some kind of upside traction soon.  But the technicals are more overbought here short term than oversold.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

More new highs as the Dow gained 58 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The employment report was robust and the fear of higher interest rates is no longer a market concern.  We are going higher and this rally will probably last longer than most expect.  Some indexes, such as the NYA and RUT have yet to break into new highs.  When they do, things will really get going to the upside.  Perhaps at the start of the new year.  GE was off a few cents on light volume.  I'm still leaving the open order in for the March calls here.  It will take some more weakness to get filled.  Gold fell on the employment numbers and that is not what I needed for the ABX call trade.  The precious metal futures were off $17.  The US dollar continued to rally with another strong session.  The fundamentals for gold are negative.  I suppose I should have cashed in the profit I had a couple of weeks ago as it appears that there will be no sustained rallies for gold.  The XAU lost 1 1/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  The ABX January call trade is still slightly in the black.  Oversold now on a short term basis for ABX.  USO was lower today as well.  The strong US dollar does not help this issue.  I am still considering the February calls here but I certainly don't know where the bottom is for oil.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've got about two real weeks of trading left into the December option expiration before things really slow down for the holidays.  I do not expect any real declines and any weakness will be bought.  I may begin to look at the January OEX or SPY calls because I expect a nice pop at the beginning of next year.  I could be wrong.  But like I said, once all of the stock indices are into new high ground we should take off.  There is no overhead resistance.  Markets tend to stay overbought for a long time in good rallies.  Witness the recent action in the US dollar.  Now all things don't last forever but you've got to take advantage of the situations when they occur.  Gold has not been able to build on that huge reversal move last week to the upside.  That is not a positive going forward.  Neither is that fact that the gold share indexes were rebuffed at their 50 day moving averages.  Now time also becomes a factor for this ABX January call trade that I have because there are only six weeks left.  Plenty to think about over the weekend.  I'll be checking the charts as usual and trying to come up with a game plan for the rest of this year.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.    

Bouncing around today and negative for the most part as the Dow fell 12 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  Waiting on the jobs numbers.  We could go either way here but I'm looking for a bullish outcome.  Declines are still being purchased and I expect that to continue.  GE fell 1/3 on average volume.  I still have an open order in for the March calls here.  Gold was basically flat on the futures despite a drop in the US dollar.  That isn't bullish.  The XAU dropped about 1 2/3.  ABX and NEM fell 1/3, while GG shed 2/3.  Volume was light.  Not sure what to make of todays price action but as long as the gold shares continue to move sideways I'll remain with a bullish position.  My ABX January calls remain in the black but have lost some profit.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not sure what we'll see from the employment report tomorrow but I don't expect some big decline.  Money continues to flow into US stocks and that trend has been pretty consistent.  Given the positive seasonal factor in place now, higher prices are the expected outcome.  The trend is up and you should night fight it.  Gold is stuck at the 50 day moving average as are the gold shares.  Perhaps tomorrows data will get things moving.  Or not.  The short term technical indicators are overbought for gold and mid-range for the gold shares.  USO remains oversold but that doesn't mean that it can't go lower.  Just because something looks cheap doesn't mean that it can't get cheaper.  I'm keeping an eye on it and still may make a trade here.  We'll watch the overnight developments and await the employment report tomorrow morning. 

Another day, another new all time high.  The Dow closed up 33 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  I thought that perhaps we would simply move sideways here but up we go.  The summation index is trending sideways though.  The Fed minutes were a non event.  Waiting on Fridays employment report.  GE was up 1/3 on OK volume.  My open order was not hit but I am leaving it out there.  The GE March calls are the trade here for me.  Gold was up almost ten bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was higher today as well.  The XAU rose almost 2 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains to the upside on lighter volume.  My ABX January calls are still in the black.  Stalling at the 50 days moving average for both gold and the gold share indices.  A move above would be positive.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Tomorrow should be a waiting game on the employment numbers.  The short term technicals are mixed here so we could go either way.  I'd only be guessing at which way we will go.  It's the sidelines for now with regards to the OEX options.  Still plenty of time left in the December option cycle.  I think that gold and silver are still trying to digest the violent intra-day move on Monday.  Perhaps the jobs data will get things going here again.  I'm still looking at USO and considering a long trade there.  We'll watch what transpires in the overnight action and go from there.

Back to the upside as volatility has returned.  The Dow gained 102 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  Declines are being purchased.  Perhaps the major stock indices will simply move sideways here before heading one way or the other.  The odds favor eventually higher prices in my opinion.  The short term technical indicators are trying to roll back to the upside.  No OEX trades right now.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was light.  My open order remains for the March calls here.  Gold fell back almost $20 today on the futures as the US dollar had a sharp rebound.  The XAU lost 2 1/2.  ABX and NEM fell 1/2, while GG shed 7/8.  Volume was average.  My ABX January calls are still showing a profit but not as much.  Volatility has returned in the gold market as well.  USO was lower today and I am still debating on whether to attempt a trade here or not.  If the options for February get cheap enough, I'll probably give it a try.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Perhaps we are in a pause for the major stock indices here but we will have to see how it plays out.  Working off the extended overbought condition is how I'd term the recent price action.  But with the Fed minutes tomorrow and the employment report on Friday, we do have catalysts for price action.  Once again , I do not expect any major decline.  Gold has been acting strange lately but with the long bullish candlestick on the daily chart, I've got to think that there will be a positive short term outcome here.  I could be wrong.  The technicals on the gold share indexes are mid-range.  USO is another idea but I am not used to trading it.  Technically it is overblown to the downside.  I'll give it some more time most likely before deciding on what to do.  We'll follow the action overseas tonight and see what happens tomorrow.

We begin the month of December on a down note as the Dow fell 51 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index down.  We have been short term overbought on the stock indices for quite some time so a pause isn't completely out of the question.  The short term technical indicators have now rolled over for the major stock indices.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow, especially the small stocks.  I don't expect any huge decline here though.  But what do I know?  Not a whole lot sometimes.  GE was off almost 1/2 and the volume was heavy.  Not sure what is going on here either.  However I did place an order for the GE March calls since I have been waiting for a pullback to try this trade.  I'm leaving the order open.  Gold had a wild session as the Swiss voted down the peg to gold for the franc.  Gold initially sold off hard overnight but then completely turned around and rallied just a hard back to the upside.  The futures ended the day higher by over $40 and back above the $1200 level.  The US dollar was weaker on the session.  The XAU was up 4 3/4.  ABX up 1/2, GG rose 1 2/3 and NEM added 1 1/4.  Volume was heavy back to the upside.  Unfortunately for me ABX was the laggard here but my ABX January calls are still in the black.  I really don't know what to make of todays price action but it appears to be bullish.  However I would not be surprised to see some sideways action as the market figures out where it wants to go.  The USO trade that I wrote about last week is still in the picture but USO had a strong day today to halt the free fall in oil.  I still like the USO February calls if we drop back again.  On a weekly basis, USO is so many standard deviations away from its 50 week moving average that it has to begin to snap back towards it between now and February.  After todays price action I feel this will happen sooner rather than later.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My guess is that any decline that we see here will set us up for a nice rally at the beginning of next year.  January through March calls should work out in my opinion.  I'll be looking at the OEX and SPY to trade long at some point this month.  The ideal scenario will be for the summation index to trend lower with the short term technical indicators reaching oversold status.  That will be the opportune time to buy the calls.  Wishful thinking perhaps on my part.  The markets go where they want.  Gold had a crazy session with incredible volatility.  I don't know what it means for the future but at least for the bullish cause we are back above $1200.  We'll have to see how the rest of the week plays out.  The employment report on Friday should be the main driver.  We also have the Feds beige book out on Wednesday.  So it should be an interesting week.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and get ready for Tuesday. 

The Dow finished the day practically unchanged on holiday light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The small stocks were slightly higher but the S&P 500 showed a loss.  The price of oil took center stage as it continued its collapse in a big way after the recent OPEC meeting.  I am thinking of getting some USO calls for February.  USO is a widely traded fund used as a proxy for the price of oil.  Oil is blown out to the downside and some type of recovery will occur.  As always the timing is the key question.  The overall stock market remains short term overbought.  GE was off over 1/3 today on average volume.  Could this be a sign of things to come?  No new news here and the short term up trend line has now been broken.  Perhaps I'll get a chance for the March calls here.  Gold followed oil lower today as the futures fell $15 to add to the $10 they dropped yesterday.  The US dollar had another good session.  The gold shares got clobbered as the XAU fell 6 points.  ABX and NEM lost over a buck, while GG dumped 1 1/4.  Volume was very good for a holiday shortened session.  The gold shares are rolling over here.  The time to sell my ABX January calls was earlier this week.  They are still showing a profit but it has been more than cut in half.  Commodity prices are crumbling.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It was supposed to be a quiet holiday session but the oil drop changed things.  You really can never tell what will happen in this game.  I think that the oil price is overblown to the downside here but it isn't something that I usually trade.  That said, opportunity appears in times of crisis.  Or so they say.  I'll consider the USO trade over the weekend.  The trend in stocks remains up.  The summation index continues higher.  I don't have any OEX trades in mind at the moment.  Gold and the gold shares have rolled over.  Perhaps the vote in Switzerland would turn things around but that is a long shot and probably won't happen.  I will seriously have to consider exiting the ABX January call trade on Monday.  I suppose a small profit is better than a loss.  But it's another thing to look at over the weekend.  It's Friday and time to take a break.

A drift higher today as the Dow gained 12 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow including the small stocks.  This bodes well for the bullish cause going forward.  The summation index continues higher.  The trend remains up and should be for quite some time.  There is no overhead resistance.  GE was flat again and the volume was light.  Waiting for a spot to buy the March calls here.  Gold didn't do much on the futures but the US dollar was lower today.  Markets are traded thin this week.  The XAU fell a point.  ABX was flat today, while GG and NEM had small fractional losses.  Volume was holiday light.  There is some noise about an upcoming vote in Switzerland to peg some of franc to gold but the odds of passage are slim.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A shortened stock session on tap for Friday but I would not expect any major market movement.  End of the month that day as well.  The major players will be off.  Things will return to normal on Monday and we'll start the month of December.  There is nothing in the way to cause any of the bulls concern at the moment.  Gold and the gold share indexes remain below their 50 day moving averages.  I think sideways price action is the most we can hope for right now.  Short term overbought on some of the technical indicators for the gold shares but it has yet to produce a decline.  We'll see what next week brings.  Happy Thanksgiving to all that celebrate the holiday and we'll be back here on Friday.

More of the same as the Dow fell 2 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  It's mixed bag here really with no major moves one way or the other.  The remainder of this week will be muted as traders will be leaving early tomorrow and Friday is a shortened session.  So we will wait and be patient.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume remains light.  Still waiting on a possible chance to get some of the March calls here/  Gold was barely higher on the futures as the US dollar lost ground today.  The XAU gained 2 2/3 though as it trades near the 50 day moving average.  ABX up 1/3, GG rose 7/8 and NEM added 1/2.  Volume was pretty good to the upside here which is surprising considering the holiday mode.  Perhaps the gold market knows something we don't.  Or not.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The trend remains up and the song remains the same for the stock indices.  I'm expecting tomorrow to be a light volume affair.  There will be some economic data reported but I don't think we'll really be back in the swing of things until next week.  Gold and gold share indices are at their 50 day moving averages.  A move through there would be constructive for the bullish cause here near term.  My ABX January calls are still very much in the black.  We'll see what happens overnight and go from there.

Nothing has changed as the Dow gained 7 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is back to moving higher.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  We should be drifting up for the remainder of the holiday week.  Overbought, staying that way and no change in sight.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was light.  Nothing new to report here.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU fell a point.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional losses.  Volume was light for ABX and GG.  Average volume for NEM.  The gains on my ABX January calls are being pared.  We are rolling over on the technicals for the gold shares here and it looks like I have overstayed my welcome on ABX.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much to report with todays price action.  All signs point to more of the same.  The small stocks are relatively stronger and that's bullish.  New closing all time highs for many of the major stock indices.  There is no overhead resistance.  Gold is stalling at the 50 day moving average.  If we can get through there it would be a positive but I would not count on it just yet.  The gold shares broke the near term down trend line.  The next technical expectation would be a return to that line.  Perhaps that is what is occurring now.  Here too, the 50 day moving average is providing resistance.  Plenty of time for the ABX call trade that I'm in but maybe selling out last week was the proper move.  Time will tell on that.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and take it from there. 

A jolt higher in the morning and then a down to sideways drift.  The Dow ended the day with a gain of  91 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  There is nothing in the way of higher prices.  We'll get a holiday week next week and that is generally positive.  Declines will continue to be bought.  The trend remains up and should be for quite some time in my opinion.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was average.  I still like calls here but will need to see some decline for purchase.  Otherwise it's a wait and see game for GE.  Gold was up $6 on the futures despite a good day for the US dollar.  The XAU was up 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional gains one way or the other on lighter volume.  The recent rise in the gold shares could be over here and perhaps I have overextended my stay with the ABX January calls.  Overbought on some of the short term technical indicators for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  What more can I say about the stock indices?  There are no sellers, only buyers.  We are in the seasonal positive zone for stocks and will be for quite some time.  New all time highs are a daily occurrence.  Calls are the way to go for option trading.  Daily declines are immediately purchased.  You cannot fight the positive price action.  Gold has had a bounce but it certainly hasn't been robust.  I think the most we can hope for here is a sideways range before continuing higher.  The only certainty is that I don't know.  The gold shares have had a decent couple of weeks but it does look like that may be out of steam.  There should be some more end of the year tax loss selling in this sector as well.  My ABX January calls are still showing a good profit.  I will have to seriously consider whether or not to sell them over the weekend.  I'll also be checking the charts to try and find some new ideas.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another early sell off and another comeback as the Dow gained 33 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is beginning to trend sideways.  Things should pretty much slow down for the next week of trading days as the Thanksgiving holiday approaches.  I'd expect an overall positive bias to exist for the major stock averages.  We're still short term overbought and that condition persists.  No change to the uptrend for now.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was pretty light.  No trades here for now.  The gold futures were off three bucks but made up what they lost in the aftermarket last night.  Some volatility now for gold.  The US dollar finished the session little changed.  The XAU was up 1 7/8.  ABX rose 1/3, while GG and NEM were up 1/2.  Volume was light.  I think that sideways is the most that we can expect near term for the gold shares.  Overbought on the short term here.  My ABX January calls are still in the black.  I really need to think about selling them here but there is the potential for more upside after a digestion period.  Or not.  The game is never easy.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Patience is required now as we wait for the next set up.  I don't think that the OEX puts are the right trade even though we are overbought.  Declines are easily still being bought at the moment.  So we wait.  GE has had a nice upside run and getting the March calls is still in the plans.  However some type of pullback must occur for this trade to be worth it.  Gold and the gold shares have started to act better but there still may be some end of the year selling to contend with here.  I am tempted to simply book the profit here that I already have.  It's something to think about.  Expiration Friday tomorrow in front of a holiday week coming up.  We'll watch what happens in the foreign markets and close out the week tomorrow. 

A sell off early but the market almost made it all the way back.  The Dow fell 2 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Still overbought and still staying that way.  The market is trying to make up its mind I suppose.  Declines are being purchased and that is expected.  I'm on the sidelines with regards to the OEX until a decent signal appears.  I don't know when that will occur.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was good.  No trades here until we see a pullback.  Gold was off a few bucks in the regular session but lost another $10 in the aftermarket.  The US dollar finished the day with a slight gain.  The XAU got crushed and lost almost 4 points.  It appears the bullishness for gold has been lost in a day.  ABX and NEM fell over 3/4, while GG dropped 1 1/4.  Volume was good to the downside.  Unless we see a turnaround in the gold shares tomorrow, the advance here is probably over.  My ABX January calls are still showing a profit but have lost some value.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  More of the same for the stock indexes.  Going nowhere fast really.  Sometimes patience is required and we have arrived at one of those times.  Holiday week coming up as well.  Gold had a good drop today and with volume.  That isn't good sign for the bulls.  I am going to have to consider selling the ABX January calls sooner rather than later.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and go from there.

Another run to new highs as the Dow gained 40 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  Still pretty overbought here.  The final hour saw the market lose ground and that usually isn't positive going forward.  However we can see the positive upward bias of option expiration week in force today.  Plus the overall market and the small stocks were stronger than the Dow.  GE was up 3/8 and the volume was good.  GE was a precursor for the market once again.  It doesn't look like I'll get a chance for the March calls here.  Gold had a positive session with the futures gaining $13.  The US dollar fell today for a change.  I can make a case that the dollar has had a five wave up move since the beginning of July.  If that is so then more dollar weakness will follow.  We'll see.  The XAU was up 3 1/8.  ABX and GG gained 3/4, while NEM rose 2/3.  Volume was good and we broke above the down trend lines that have been in effect since the beginning of September on the gold share indices.  My ABX January calls are showing good gains for now.  The next question is when to sell.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks like higher prices are coming for the major stock indices.  Although we remain very overbought all signs appear to be pointing higher for now.  Any declines can be bought in my opinion.  The gold shares are breaking out to the upside.  Price and volume are finally positive here now.  I don't know how long it will last.  But we should at least make it to the 50 day moving averages.  We'll see what happens tomorrow. 

Another day of hanging around as the Dow rose 13 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues higher.  The small stocks were lower and that is not a positive.  The TRAN was lower today as well.  We are overdue for some type of decline but it is option expiration week.  The short term indicators have rolled over for the small caps but not for the major stock indices.  Your guess as to what happens next is as good as mine.  No OEX trades for now.  GE was up over 1/8 on OK volume.  I'm still considering the March calls here but there hasn't been a pullback for the purchase.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures, which wasn't too bad considering the good gains in the US dollar.  The XAU was up 1 1/8 as the gold shares out performed.  That's a good sign for the bulls.  ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional gains on good volume.  Somebody is buying the gold shares.  My ABX January calls are still showing a decent profit.  Not completely short term overbought yet for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  With the weakness in the small stocks it would not be a surprise to see some selling here.  But with the positive expiration week bias, I doubt any meaningful decline is around the corner.  With a holiday week looming it could just be more of the same stagnation.  I simply don't know.  When in doubt, stay out.  I think that gold has experienced some short covering in the past couple of weeks.  The gold share indexes are on the verge of breaking through the down trend lines on a daily basis that began in the beginning of September.  If we can get through them with volume it would be a short term positive.  But it hasn't happened yet.  We'll keep an eye on what happens overnight and take it from there.

Still just hanging around for the stock market as the Dow fell 18 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still heading up.  We really just went sideways this week and perhaps that is enough of a rest before we head higher.  Expiration week and its positive bias is coming up.  With a holiday week to follow.  So I don't expect any major declines or any surprises.  Steady as she goes for now.  GE gained a nickel and the volume was extremely light.  No hurry to do anything here.  Gold had an unusual session as it took off to the upside for no apparent reason.  The dollar was weaker today but not enough to justify the gold futures taking off by over $25 and a bit more in the aftermarket.  Short covering in my opinion.  The XAU gained over 4 points.  ABX up 3/4, GG gained 1 1/8 and NEM added 7/8.  Volume was good to the upside.  The weekly gold share charts still appear to be trying to hammer out a bottom after todays price action.  My ABX January calls are solidly in the black.  But we know anything can happen in this game.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit off, did not feel well last night.  Perhaps some rest is due.  I don't see anything in the near term that could derail the recent rally.  We are overdue for a pause but none seems to be forthcoming.  The technical indicators are overbought and simply remaining that way.  We are in a positive seasonal area for stocks.  I do not expect a lot of tax loss selling this year because there really aren't a lot of losses.  But that's a guess as usual.  What isn't a guess is that all declines will be bought for now.  Gold had a huge move to the upside today and got back above the $1180 level.  I can't say I saw that coming.  The next goal will be $1200.  Not overbought yet on the gold shares.  However there are plenty of losses to take in this sector if they haven't been taken already.  I'm not sure when to book the profit for the January ABX call trade but it may be sooner rather than later.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend.  With only five days remaining in the November option cycle, I doubt I'll be attempting any trades next week.  But you never know.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another gain for the Dow as the most watched index gained 40 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative though.  The Dow as the leader is usually not a bullish sign.  I still feel a breather is in order for the major stock indices.  But who knows?  Perhaps the recent sideways action this week is all we'll get.  The summation index continues to move up.  However the action in the RUT today was bearish and we like to see the small stocks in the lead.  So we'll see.  GE was off about 1/8 on light volume.  No trades here right now but I'm still looking at the March calls.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar had a slight loss.  The XAU fell a point and that isn't bullish action for the gold shares.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  We are not seeing the gold shares add to last weeks gains and that is a discouraging sign.  Perhaps sideways is the most we can hope for here in the near term.  Mentally I'm getting back into the market routine.  Six days left in the November option cycle.  After that we will have a holiday week.  So I think whatever the near term direction will be, will play out in the next six days.  The stock indexes are still overbought and that condition really needs to be relieved before any further advance can take place.  That's my best guess at the moment.  Whether or not we've built a short term top here will play out in the next few days.  Gold remains a disappointment but maybe we are hammering out a bottom here.  That's a guess as usual.  The gold shares have stopped going down but we certainly aren't witnessing any kind of rally yet.  My ABX January calls are still showing a slight profit.  We'll see what happens in the overseas trading tonight and close out the week tomorrow.

Not much happening today as the Dow fell 2 points on lighter than lately volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Nothing changed in the two days I was away.  We continue to be overbought and the market continues to grind its way higher.  The small stocks had the relative strength today and that is bullish.  I do not see any big declines coming.  It will probably just be more of the same.  We are overdue for some type of breather coming up.  But when that occurs is anybodies guess.  GE was up 1/8 on average volume.  GE is just hanging around this week.  Gold was off a few bucks today as the US dollar was higher.  Gold has given back some of last weeks gains so far this week.  The XAU was off 1/8.  The gold shares sold off Monday and have since come back.  ABX and GG had fractional gains, while NEM fell 1/4.  Volume has lightened up for the gold shares.  My ABX January gold share calls are still showing a small profit.  Mentally I'm feeling tired from the travel.  The stock indices continue to travel upwards but some type of pause would not be a surprise.  It is a light week for economic data.  Declines will still be bought in my opinion.  Gold has not been able to add to the gains of last week.  That is not an encouraging sign for the bulls.  But we still have a couple of days left in the week.  The gold shares are hanging in there so far for the week.  I need to get some rest as things get back to normal here after a couple of days away from it all.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and go from there.

We bounced around for most of todays session and finished with a gain of 19 points on the Dow on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The employment report came in just a bit lighter than expected but it wasn't a drastic development.  The stock indices sold off and came back twice.  Still overbought and staying there for the short term technical picture.  I don't see any big declines coming and a grind higher would not be a surprise.  The trend is up.  GE gained a nickel on lighter volume.  I'd like the March calls if GE falls back, although that does not appear to be happening anytime soon.  Gold was a surprise today as it took off to the upside.  The futures gained over $25 as the US dollar had a good decline on the day.  Probably short covering for gold because the overall fundamental picture there hasn't changed.  The gold shares added to yesterdays gains with the XAU up 4 3/4.  ABX gained 3/4, GG rose 1 1/2 and NEM added a buck.  Volume was good here.  Some bargain hunting along with short covering is my guess for todays price action.  My ABX January calls are in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not feel well last night.  The major stock indexes are still in a straight line up pattern form the lows of mid-October.  This cannot last.  We are hitting new all time highs on some of the indices almost every day.  That fact that this is not receiving a lot of press bodes well for higher prices as we go along.  But we do need to take a rest at some point.  Perhaps that will be the opportunity to purchase some calls.  I expect the beginning of next week to be slow.  Tuesday is another bank holiday in the US.  Gold had it's best day in months today for whatever reason.  The daily candlestick chart here now has a bullish pattern.  Perhaps gold can get back to $1200 off of this snap back attempt.  It's also possible that the gold shares are trying to put a stop to their decline here as well.  The weekly candlestick charts here had their first positive close in nine weeks.  Volume was heavy going higher as well and that's bullish.  But we will need to see some follow through upside next week to have a more constructive picture of the situation.  The blog will be off on Monday and Tuesday as I am taking a mini-vacation in the mountains and will not have internet access.  I'll have a recap of those days here on Wednesday when I return.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The stock markets continue to climb higher.  The Dow gained 70 points on what passes now for average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  The employment report is due tomorrow and I get the feeling that regardless of the data the market will rally.  The Dow and the TRAN continue to make new daily all time highs.  That fact is getting no press at this time.  The trend is up until proven otherwise.  GE had a good session as it gained 1/2 on good volume.  Will I get a chance to buy the March calls here?  Not at least until this issue gets oversold and that could be a while.  The move higher bodes well for the overall market.  Gold appears to be trying to stabilize here as it lost a few bucks on the futures.  The US dollar took off to the upside again and crossed the 88 level.  The fact that gold didn't drop even more is interesting and confusing at the same time.  The gold shares somehow found a bid and the XAU was up 2 2/3.  ABX and NEM rose 1/3, while GG was higher by 3/4.  Volume was good for the gold shares.  Probably just some short covering for the gold shares today.  The fundamentals for gold remain bearish.  My ABX January calls are showing a small profit.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Everything is pointing to rising stock index prices and we'll move tomorrow off of the employment report.  The short term technicals for the major stock indices remain overbought but in strong moves higher that is the case.  Enjoy the ride.  Gold and silver remain unloved.  So why would I try the gold share calls here?  If my prognosis that this is the 5th and final leg down for the gold shares, a snap back rally should ensue.  That and the extreme oversold nature of these stocks provide the technical case for the trade.  Combined with the extreme bearishness and general feeling that gold has nowhere to go but down helps build the contrarian argument.  However as always the markets go where they want.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Mixed again for the major stock indices as the Dow gained 100 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The small stocks lagged today and the NASDAQ was slightly negative.  Overbought and staying there for the stock indexes.  The summation index is still moving higher.  The election is out of the way and the next piece of trading news will be the employment report.  I don't see anything in the way of higher prices right now.  Declines will be bought in my opinion.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was OK.  GE is not participating in the rally as much as you'd like to see here.  No trades here for now.  Gold got sold off again as the futures fell over $20.  The US dollar was strong again today.  Getting overbought short term for the US dollar.  Gold remains oversold and has been for weeks.  The XAU dropped 2 3/4.  ABX and GG lost around 1/2, while NEM fell over 3/4.  Volume remains very heavy in what I think is the final liquidation for the gold shares.  I canceled the overnight order that I had for the January ABX calls.  In the morning I placed another order at a closer to the money call for the January ABX options.  It was filled late in the day.  It is already showing a small loss.  I may be early with this idea.  At this point there is really no telling how low the gold shares can go.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Tomorrow should be a holding pattern for the stock market.  Still in a straight line up for the Dow.  This will not last forever.  Overbought, staying there and there is no end in sight for the rally.  However the lack of small stock participation here is probably a warning sign.  I think that gold and the gold shares are in the final phase of their decline.  If correct, then the January ABX call trade that I placed today might have a chance.  If not, the stop loss will be hit.  It appears that I'm early here with the drop in the final hour for the gold shares.  But we'll see.  I'll keep an eye on the foreign markets tonight and go from there.

Another day of mixed results as the Dow rose 17 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative though.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index continues higher.  This is probably a digestion period due to the recent gains.  We'll get the election results overnight and they will most likely indicate a stalemate for Washington.  That should be a positive for the stock market.  We're still overbought on the short term technical indicators for the major stock indices.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was light.  Gold didn't do much on the futures today despite a drop in the US dollar.  The XAU fell 2 1/2 and returned to under perform the metal.  ABX, GG and NEM all fell around 1/2 on good volume again.  What appeared to be an attempt to hammer out a bottom for the gold shares isn't holding up.  I still have the open order for the January ABX calls but I may have to adjust it lower.  Or perhaps forget about it altogether.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we have had a straight line rally form the lows in October.  This cannot last forever.  Perhaps it is time for some sideways activity to consolidate the gains.  I do not expect any large scale decline because I think that there will be buyers to step in.  The VIX had a spike and we are now back at more normal levels.  After tomorrows price action it should be a waiting game for Fridays employment numbers.  Gold and silver are in incredible bear markets.  However on the weekly gold share charts I can make a case that we are in the fifth and final leg down.  How far down it goes is the question.  I'll rethink the January calls tonight.  We'll watch the election returns come in tonight and see what tomorrow brings. 

A mixed bag to start the month of November as the Dow lost 24 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The overall market acted better than the Dow.  The summation index continues higher.  Still short term overbought for the major stock indices.  We'll get the mid-term elections out of the way and wait for the employment report.  There is nothing in the way of higher prices.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was good.  I'm still thinking about getting the March call here.  The timing is the ongoing question.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar continued its climb higher.  The XAU was actually up two points and this is the first sign of the gold shares starting to act better.  Of course one day doesn't make a trend but it is something to keep an eye on.  ABX and GG had very minor gains, while NEM was up 1/3.  Volume remains heavy here.  I did place an order for the January ABX calls and I am leaving it open.  The technicals for the gold shares remain oversold.  However it looks like both ABX and GG are trying to hammer out bottoms here on the daily candlestick charts.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm not sure how much longer the straight line up from the lows can go.  But you've got to admit it's been pretty amazing.  I really don't think anybody saw that coming.  But where we go from here is what matters now.  Declines, if we get any, can and will be bought in my opinion.  I do not have any OEX trades in mind right now.  I am starting to look at the SPY as a trading option as well.  Gold has broken support and lower prices are forecast from that.  How low is the question here.  The gold shares look like they are trying to stabilize here.  Whether or not they can remains to be seen.  I'm still willing to try the January calls here if I can get filled at the price that I want.  This looks like it will be my next attempt at a trade.  We'll see what transpires overnight and watch the pre-election markets tomorrow.

Another incredible run to the upside today as the Dow gained 194 points on heavy volume to finish the month of October.  The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  We are once again hitting all time highs in some of the major stock indices.  I certainly cannot explain it but as I say here a lot, the market goes where it wants.  No real declines to get long but perhaps that will change in November.  Technically overbought and staying there.  No OEX trades in mind at the moment.  I guess the next big events will be the election on Tuesday and the employment report a week from today.  GE was only up 1/8 today on average volume.  GE did not participate as much in todays rally.  I still like the March calls here eventually.  Gold got clocked again today as the futures fell over $25.  The US dollar had a very strong session on the heels of a weak Japanese yen.  The XAU dropped 3 1/8.  ABX lost 3/8, GG was down 1 1/2 but came all the way back to be slightly positive.  NEM got smashed on the earnings report and lost 1 1/2.  Volume was extremely heavy for the gold shares today.  I keep thinking that we have seen the blow out downside washout for these stocks, yet they keep going lower.  I did put in another order for the January ABX calls but it wasn't filled.  The action in GG today was interesting for at least in this stock, traders are saying enough is enough.  I'll probably try ABX again on Monday.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Small losses in the last two OEX trades but I can live with that.  At least I executed the trades as planned and did not deviate form my trading rules.  The stock indexes have come roaring back from the lows of mid October.  I do not see any barriers in the way of higher prices from here for a while.  Wear above the old resistance in both the Dow and the S&P 500.  The good volume confirms the breakout.  I'll be taking a closer look at the charts over the weekend.  Gold has broken its support at the $1180 level and I don't know how low it can go.  Perhaps all the way back to $1000?  I'd be guessing if I said I knew.  The gold shares are so blown out here that I am pretty sure I will be attempting the calls next week for the January option cycle.  Plenty of charts to look at there as well.  It was a crazy month of October in the markets.  I don't expect a repeat of that anytime soon but you never know.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

A huge upside move for the Dow today as it gained 221 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive.  The Dow outperformed the overall market.  The summation index continues higher.  I cannot explain this huge rebound but you cannot argue with price.  I got stopped out on November OEX puts but not without drama.  The ticket should have been filled earlier in the session but the price action was strange.  I may need to switch to the SPY options because they have much more liquidity.  Anyway the loss was 30% and my entry here was poor.  The overbought condition was not relieved with a decent decline and that wasn't the best trading idea for me.  I prefer the OEX because it moves slower but if the options trade like they did today I may have to seek more liquid options.  GE was basically unchanged but did move around a lot today as volatility returned.  I still like the March call idea here.  Gold continued lower today as the futures fell over $25 with the losses from yesterdays aftermarket thrown in.  The XAU got clobbered and shed almost 5 points.  We are reaching levels not seen since the financial meltdown in 2008.  The dollar was a bit higher today as well.  The earnings came out for ABX and GG but nobody liked them.  ABX and NEM lost 1/2, while GG dropped almost 3.  Volume exploded to the downside.  This should be the final washout, with the volume expanding so much.  I did place an order for the January ABX calls but it wasn't filled.  I will probably try this trade again tomorrow.  This is really an incredible decline for the gold shares.  Perhaps getting long is the wrong idea again but there will not be a lot of money involved.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Another losing trade but there wasn't much capital involved and the stop loss came through eventually.  It looks like the V bottom is in place for the major stock indices.  The trend is up and declines, if they occur, can be bought.  Three weeks left in the November option cycle.  The market remains overbought but the rise continues.  End of the month tomorrow.  Gold lower.  Silver lower.  The gold shares decimated.  The old saying says the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets.  It's a tidal wave of blood for gold right now.  I'll probably try the January gold share calls tomorrow.  However this trade will not have a lot of money involved.  We'll see.  We'll see what happens overseas tonight and go from there.  

We bounced around today and the Dow finished with a loss of 31 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We did sell off after the Fed but came back for the rest of the session.  The summation index continues higher.  My November OEX puts are in the red.  The stock indices are still overbought but it hasn't led to any type of sustained decline.  The trend is up and I need to exit this trade.  The entry point was early and I doubt it will get back to the buy price.  We'll get the GDP report tomorrow, perhaps that will provide some movement.  GE was off about 1/4 on average volume.  Hanging around the 50 and 200 day moving averages here.  Gold fell about $20 on the futures with the aftermarket loss thrown in.  The US dollar had a strong session once again.  The fundamentals for gold remain bearish.  The XAU fell almost three points.  ABX off 2/3, while GG and NEM fell around a buck.  Volume was above average to the downside.  When you think that the gold shares can't go any lower, they still do.  Earnings due in the next couple of trading sessions but I doubt now that it will matter.  I guess I'm lucky that I didn't try the gold share calls again.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A small spike in the VIX today but it didn't end up amounting to anything by the close.  You just get the feeling that the market will now churn its way higher from here.  No retest of the recent lows from what I can tell.  End of the month coming up on Friday.  I'll have to consider selling my OEX November puts before they get stopped out.  The strategy was to wait until the Fed today.  That passed without ant meaningful decline.  Unless we sell off tomorrow, there won't be much reason to hold on.  The gold shares are getting down to levels that I did not believe were possible.  My thought is that they could even go lower.  I'll eventually try the January calls though.  When is the question.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets tonight and go from there. 

Powering higher as the Dow gained 187 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The stock indices continue their straight line move up from the lows.  I got stopped out on the November OEX put trade for a 45% loss.  I then preceded to move to a closer to the money strike price for the November OEX puts and purchased them.  This was a mistake as the market simply continued to move higher.  I have the stop loss order in and it will probably be hit tomorrow at this pace.  I think that I have fallen in love with the idea to be short for the Fed announcement and that isn't the way you need to trade to be successful.  We are short term overbought but it hasn't led to any type of decline.  The trend is up and calls are what you should be buying.  GE was up 1/3 on better volume.  Perhaps the time to get the March GE calls has passed.  Gold was flat on the session and the US dollar was off a bit.  The XAU gained 1 1/4 as the gold shares finally rose when gold did not.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  Perhaps the gold share calls before the earnings was the better trade here.  But it doesn't matter now.  I'm in what I'm in.  Mentally I'm not happy with todays trade.  I really should have just moved to the sidelines and waited for a better technical set up.  The trade won't lose a lot of money but the inability to do what is necessary is the problem.  I think also I was anxious just to have another trade going and that is a recipe for disaster.  The battle usually lies within oneself and I lost that battle today.  The TRAN hit an all time high today so overall higher prices are coming.  The small stocks are acting great here as well.  There is nothing near term to derail this rally.  Perhaps the Fed won't mean anything at all tomorrow.  Waiting on the gold share earnings but the trend is down and the fundamentals are lousy.  We'll see what happens tomorrow. 

A mixed bag today as the Dow gained 12 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative though and the S&P 500 showed a loss.  The small stock indices were mixed.  The summation index continues higher.  Waiting on the Fed seems to be the general theme but there isn't anything new expected there.  My November OEX puts are losers.  I should get rid of them this week, either getting stopped out or dumping them.  I'm going to hold them until the Fed on Wednesday.  Short term overbought on the stock indexes but we are not seeing any pullback.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Holding off on the March calls for now.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was off a bit today but gold did not move up.  The XAU fell 1/3.  The gold shares are low and they just keep going lower.  ABX, GG and NEM were all down 1/4 or more on light volume.  Earnings due for these three starting after the close on Wednesday.  As much as I'd like to try the near term calls for the gold shares here, I am going to try and fight myself to just not do anything.  However these stocks are due for at least a bounce at some point.  Oversold and staying there but a case can be made on the daily charts for a positive RSI divergence.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We had a nice bounce in the stock indexes and the Fibanocci retracement levels have all been taken out.  The trend is up.  There has been no pullback and no retest of the lows.  It appears that a V bottom is in place.  The weekly stock index candlestick charts are showing a bullish pattern.  Declines, if they occur, can be purchased in my opinion.  Gold continues to go nowhere and the gold shares are decimated.  When the carnage ends is the question that hasn't been answered for months.  It doesn't pay to try and guess in this game.  The technical indicators stopped working here a while ago.  I'll try my best to stay on the sidelines.  The fundamentals remain bearish for gold.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and see what happens on Tuesday. 

Another good day for the Dow as it gained 127 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Declines can be bought in my opinion.  My November OEX calls are in the red.  They will be sold next week as this trade will probably get stopped out.  I'll probably try and wait for the Fed on Wednesday but the bottom is in and higher prices are coming for the future.  Short term overbought and staying there for the stock indices.  It is surprising how the tone has changed in such a short time.  But like we already know, the market will go where it wants.  GE was up about 20 cents but the volume was very light.  I still like the March calls here if we ever see some pullback.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the session as the US dollar was a bit weaker.  The XAU was off 1/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had minor moves one way or the other on lighter volume.  Earnings out next week for the big three and I'm tempted to try the November calls here now.  However it is probably more prudent to let the announcements pass and forget about the gold shares for now.  I'll think about it over the weekend.  There are potentially positive daily RSI divergences in these stocks though.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  Holding a losing trade at the moment but because the volatility has picked up so much, the prices for the index options stay inflated.  The extra week in the November cycle has helped keep the premiums up as well.  I'll need to have some early week weakness for this trade to break even right now.  I do not see any huge declines coming up for the stock indices.  The trend has changed, we will not be retesting the recent lows and longs are suggested.  Still no love for gold and the gold shares.  The small rally we had in gold is now fading.  The fundamentals for gold are still negative.  I can maybe make a case for trying the gold share calls ahead of the earnings next week but there are probably better trades out there.  I'll consider what to do over the weekend.  I'll also try and not talk myself into doing something stupid.  But you never know.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Zooming back to the upside as the Dow gained 216 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Good earnings propelled the market today.  We broke the recent down trend line in the S&P 500 today.  It really looks like a V bottom has been put into place.  My November OEX puts as now losers.  The probability of this trade returning to profitability is not good.  Although still short term overbought, todays action in the stock indices negates yesterdays decline.  We'll have to see how the week closes out tomorrow.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume but came well off of the highs for the session.  Trying to get through the 50 and 200 day moving averages here.  Gold was off $16 on the futures.  The US dollar had a slight gain today.  The XAU was up 1/3.  ABX and GG were little changed, while NEM shed over 1/2.  Volume was slightly above average here.  Earnings due soon for the gold shares and I don't see anything positive coming from that.  But who knows?  They are overdue for some type of rally.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It's been quite a rally off of the lows from last week.  It doesn't look or feel like a retest is in the cards this time around.  Longs are favored.  I'll probably hold the November OEX puts until the Fed meeting unless we see a sharp decline before that.  Doubt it.  Gold is stalling at the 50 day moving average.  The gold shares remain oversold.  I'm still considering the January gold share calls but would like to wait until after the earnings are reported.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and close out the week tomorrow.

Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 153 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  We were positive early in the day and that created a short term overbought condition.  I do not think this is the beginning of a downside move like the one we just saw.  The summation index is now heading higher.  We did get back to the declining tops line on the S&P 500 and have been turned away.  I did get some November OEX puts this morning and they are in the black.  However this should be a short term trade, probably around a week or so unless something major develops.  I do not think that we are going to go all the way back down to test the recent lows.  I could be wrong.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was average.  I'm looking at the March calls here.  Gold was down $6 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was up on the session again.  The XAU fell 2 3/4.  ABX and NEM were off by about 1/4, while GG dropped 7/8.  Volume was average.  Perhaps this will be the final washout for the gold shares but that is a guess as usual.  The trend remains down for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So the next trade has begun and the entry was good.  We got some strength in the morning and I was able to get my order filled.  The stop loss order is in place to contain the loss if we rally.  I'll be keeping an eye on the technicals but this trade should not last long.  I will be looking to switch back to the November OEX calls perhaps next week.  The only caveat with this trade is that the option premiums have so much time left that the price movement on them is muted.  The gains, if any, will certainly not be like the last trade.  The overall market and the small stocks are acting better than the Dow so far.  Gold is still unloved.  The gold shares are being sold off again.  This story never seems to change.  Eventually it will.  We'll see what kind of reaction to todays decline we see in the foreign markets and take it from there. 

It is hard to believe that a week ago the market looked like it was at the end of the world.  Today the Dow soared 215 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 5 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  We are right at the down trend line that began a month ago in the S&P 500.  I did place an order for some November OEX puts but it wasn't filled.  It has been a straight line up for the major stock indices since the lows of last week.  The TRAN has already moved above its declining tops line.  So is the idea of getting some index puts here the wrong one?  Could be.  I'll think about it again tonight but perhaps strength tomorrow will be the opportune time for purchase.  GE was up 3/8 and the volume was average.  Right back to the 50 and 200 day moving averages here.  The down trend line here has been broken as well.  Gold rose $7 on the futures and the US dollar was higher today as well.  Not sure what to make of that.  The XAU was only up 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional moves one way or the other on average volume.  Once again gold is moving higher without the gold shares and that isn't bullish.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  It has been an incredible turn in price for the stock indexes.  The summation index has turned around as well.  Longer term it appears that a decent bottom has been put in.  Shorter term is a bit tougher.  We'll be short term overbought with any positive action tomorrow.  I'm leaning towards trying the November OEX puts for a short term trade.  I'll consider this idea once again tonight.  The foreign markets seemed to have turned here as well.  Perhaps waiting for a pullback to get long is the better course of action here.  We'll see.  Gold and silver have stopped going down but it certainly isn't the kind of price action that gets anybodies attention.  Staying on the sidelines there for now.  We'll watch what happens today after the bell, check the overseas action tonight and get ready for tomorrow.

The Dow rising only 19 points today does not tell the story as the overall market was much higher.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive and the volume was average.  The small stocks and the S&P 500 were considerably higher.  The summation index has turned back to the upside.  Do we try and trade a move back to test the lows?  What if there is no retest and this is a V bottom?  Plenty of questions as usual.  I think that if we get to short term overbought on the technical indicators later this week, I'll try the November OEX puts.  If not, then I will look to buy the November calls at some point during this option cycle.  That is the game plan at the moment.  GE was up almost 1/4 on average volume.  I still like the March calls here and will look to pick some up on a pullback.  Gold rose $5 on the futures today.  The US dollar Was lower on the session.  The XAU gained 1 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on lighter volume.  Gold itself is short term overbought here and the gold shares did not go along for the ride.  No trades here for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Dow was held back today by a huge loss in IBM.  The other major stock indices are bouncing nicely.  Waiting for the next set up here basically.  Perhaps by the end of the week.  The ideal scenario is to keep moving higher on light volume to set up the OEX puts.  Gold has had a nice bounce but the fundamentals there are still negative and could be for a while.  No such rally in the gold shares but they did stop moving lower.  Patience could be the best idea there.  we'll see what happens in the overseas markets tonight and take it from there.  

A very positive expiration bias as the Dow zoomed 263 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back to the upside.  But it doesn't necessarily mean that we will be going straight back up.  It looks like the next trade could now be the November OEX puts when we get back to the new down trend line.  It could be sooner than that but we will have to see what the stock indices do from here.  Option premiums for November are high.  GE had a gap to the upside and gained 1/2 on good volume after the earnings announcement.  We did come off of the highs for the day though.  I still like the idea for the March calls here and will be looking to get them on weakness.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher on the day.  The XAU was off 2 1/4.  ABX and NEM were lower by 1/3 and GG fell almost a buck.  Volume was average.  The gold shares look poised to go even lower here.  Maybe we'll see one last shake out for the gold shares here when the earnings come out.  That's a guess as usual.  No trades here for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  That was quite a week for the stock indexes.  The small stocks performed better than the big caps.  We will probably test the lows made this week at some point but the decline is done in my opinion.  The short term technicals have turned back up.  The fear level shot up and we did get a high volume washout on Wednesday.  That doesn't mean the market can't go lower as it always goes where it wants to.  It simply means the odds favor higher prices going forward according to the technicals.  My trading tactics this week left much to be desired.  That said, at least I had a winning trade.  After last months blow out, over-leveraged losses to the downside, it was good to see something positive.  My timing for that idea was unfortunately off by a month.  However I can tell you two things that remain true in the game.  You have to believe in yourself and you can never give up.  Gold continued higher this week but the gold shares certainly did not follow.  That usually isn't bullish and probably isn't in this case either.  So it is probably best to remain on the sidelines here.  Plenty of charts to ponder over the weekend as I try and come up with the next trading idea.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Not as volatile today as the Dow fell 24 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive though, as the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Trying to find a bottom for now in my opinion.  The summation index may start to turn back up here.  The short term technicals are trying to turn around as well.  I'm looking at the November OEX calls now for the next trade.  The other choice is to wait for a return to the newly formed down trend line and then buy some puts.  Not exactly sure which to do.  We'll let the expiration happen tomorrow and go from there.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was heavy.  The earnings out tomorrow will be the driver perhaps for the overall market as well.  No idea what to expect there.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar finished the day basically unchanged.  The XAU was flat as well.  ABX and GG were up 1/4, while NEM was flat.  Volume was average.  The gold shares haven't moved up with gold and that isn't bullish.  No trades here for now.  Mentally I'm still kicking myself for yesterdays lousy trade execution.  But it doesn't matter now.  You've got to keep moving forward in this game.  It isn't always easy to do.  The battle is always against yourself.  I'll try and do better the next trade.  The markets really don't care about you.  But you have to care about yourself.  I'm expecting some near term upside once we get through the expiration tomorrow.  The technicals point to that.  However the option premiums for November are high due to the recent volatility and the extra week in the cycle.  So I'll probably tread lightly.  Gold has found mild interest here but not the gold shares.  Earnings due there at the end of this month.  I can't think that there will be any good news there but who knows?  We'll see if the overseas markets can put a halt to their free fall tonight and brace for option expiration tomorrow.

It was an extremely volatile session in the stock market today.  We opened down over 200 points in the first ten minutes.  The market then made its way back to being less negative for an hour or so.  We then sold off hard and midway through the day were off 450 points.  The VIX climbed above 30.  But then the Dow made another comeback and finished the day off 173 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  This is the blow off session that I was looking for.  Unfortunately I did not trade it well.  I did get rid of the October OEX puts but I did not get the best price that I could and should have.  My intra-day tactics were poor.  Once again I was not up to the task.  It is a humbling game at times.  The profit was 750% but it could have been better.  The low is now in.  That's my opinion.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was extremely heavy.  I'm still going to wait for the earnings report on Friday before I do anything here.  The March calls are the trading idea here.  Gold found a bid and the futures rose ten bucks as the US dollar got crushed.  The XAU was flat however.  ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional losses.  Volume was average.  With such a crazy day in the stock market, the gold shares didn't have any sustained interest.  That isn't bullish.  Especially with the dollar getting hammered.  Not sure of what to make of that.  No trades here for now.  Mentally I'm feeling pretty tired.  It has been a while since we've seen this kind of volatility.  The comeback today was impressive and for that reason along with the extended oversold technical condition, I feel confident that the low today will hold up going forward.  We may drift our way back down there over the rest of the month but it should hold.  That is around the 1820 level on the S&P 500.  The extreme volume constitutes a shake out to the downside in my opinion.  I simply did not take full advantage of it and I had my opportunities.  My entry for this trade was very good.  My exit was poor.  Even making whatever money that I did doesn't matter if the trading tactics can't be executed properly.  Perhaps I'll feel different about that tomorrow but I doubt it.  I should have had a better game plan for the day and written it down.  When the market gets crazy like today, that's probably a good idea.  But it doesn't matter now.  Still a couple of days in the October option cycle but I won't be making any more trades this week.  Perhaps some November index calls will be in order.  I do expect to back and fill for a while here though.  Gold found buyers but the gold shares remain stagnant.  That is not a positive.  Perhaps I will lay off trading gold for the rest of the year.  The stock indices had a downside blow off today and I think that the lows are in.  Notice todays chart of the RUT.  I'll be looking for November calls perhaps on a retest of todays lows.  We'll see how the foreign markets react to todays market activity overnight and see what happens tomorrow.

Another crazy session as the Dow was up well over 100 points but closed with a loss of 5 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive and the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  That's a positive.  The summation index continues lower though.  Option expiration week and only three days to go.  Plenty of earnings coming out and we've got some economic data due for the rest of the week.  We started out strong and continues to build on that but then faltered during the second half of the session.  I still have the October OEX puts but I really should sell them tomorrow.  They will be profitable.  GE was up 1/8 after being much higher early on.  Earnings out on Friday and I will let that get out of the way before thinking about taking a position.  Gold was up $4 on the futures despite a stronger US dollar.  Flight to safety money is my guess there.  The XAU gained 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all gained around 1/4 on average volume.  These issues also were higher during the session and then came back.  The gold shares seem to be following the overall market here.  No trades for now.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, not enough sleep.  The small stocks are starting to act better but it's all relative I suppose.  I'm not sure that we're out of the woods yet with respect to this decline.  I'd like to see a washout session to be sure and we haven't had that yet.  I don't know if we'll get it by expiration Friday, if at all.  We are no doubt overextended to the downside and have been in a waterfall type decline for a few days.  Oversold, staying there and through the zero line on the summation index.  I can only guess at downside targets from here.  Gold has found some buyers here but I don't know if it has staying power.  I'm in no rush for the January gold share calls yet.  I've got to stay focused on the OEX for now.  Retail sales, inflation data and the Feds beige book due tomorrow.  Volatility will no doubt be on the menu.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas markets tonight and go from there.

Continuing lower as the Dow fell 223 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were only 2 to 1 negative though.  The summation index is still moving lower.  We finished near the lows of the session again and that's not a positive.  But the small stocks held up relatively better.  My October OEX puts are showing good profits.  Only four days to go in the October option cycle.  I will have to sell them soon.  However the market is in free fall.  I think it could go on for a couple of more days but I could be wrong.  Oversold and staying that way for the stock indices and that is not bullish.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was good.  GE helped lead the way lower.  Earnings due on Friday.  I'm looking at the March calls here.  Gold found buyers again as the futures rose $8.  The US dollar was lower today.  The XAU gained 1 1/4 but was higher early on.  ABX was flat, while GG and NEM were up 1/3.  All were higher during the trading day.  Volume was around average.  I'm looking at the January calls here, perhaps with NEM.  However it's possible I may just step aside and not do anything.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Volatility has shot up and that makes the trading tougher than usual.  The technicals are oversold on the major stock indexes.  It is really getting dicey.  Almost 100 S&P 500 points lower in three trading sessions.  I don't know how low this will go but we kind of need to see a blow out downside session to put an end to it.  Was that today?  Hard to tell with a moderately negative A/D line.  I'd still advise caution for now.  Gold may be trying to find a bottom here and the gold shares as well.  But the fundamentals for the precious metals really haven't changed and they aren't positive.  Earnings due out at the end of the month foe the gold shares.  But I suppose the focus is now on the stock indices and how much longer the decline will last.  The 200 day moving average was taken out today on the S&P 500.  A 10% correction here would take us to the 1800 level.  I don't know if that will happen.  We do seem to be going straight down at the moment.  It was a partial holiday today and all the world markets will be back at it tomorrow.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas action and see what happens tomorrow.

Downside continues as the Dow fell 115 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative.  The negative reaction to the break of the zero line in the summation index continues.  The summation index also continues lower.  The small stocks got clobbered again and are still leading the way lower.  That is a negative.  I do not know how long that this decline will last but there are only five days left in the October option cycle.  My October OEX puts are solidly in the black.  When to sell them is the ongoing question.  GE was down 1/2, volume was heavy and we have taken out the recent low.  If GE is a precursor, it spells more trouble for the stock indices.  Solidly below the 50 week moving average here now.  I'm looking at the March calls but will wait to make a purchase.  Gold finished the session a bit lower on the futures as the US dollar had a strong session.  The XAU fell 1 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses after being higher earlier.  Volume was average.  The gold shares are following the overall stock market lower.  I'm not exactly sure what to do here so it would be wise just to stay out.  The gold shares are very cheap but who is to say that they can't get cheaper?  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is indeed falling apart at this juncture.  How low will we go?  It is something to consider over the weekend.  We closed near the lows for the day and that isn't a good sign.  I'm guessing that next week should be pretty interesting.  Oversold on the short term and almost there medium term.  I still think it's a time to be cautious.  As I said yesterday we may not crash but falling apart every day is an option to that.  Plenty to consider over the weekend.  Gold held up this week but who can say if that will last?  The fundamentals of a stronger US dollar combined with the looming threat of higher rates isn't and hasn't been a positive for gold.  However, if the roughly $1200 level holds, then the gold shares might be a trade for the calls.  Hasn't happened yet.  The gold shares have been blown out to the downside for weeks and they keep going lower.  We are at an interesting point for the stock indexes.  The Dow has held up a lot better than most.  We're heading lower and the question is how far and how fast?  Keep an eye out for your longer term buys because this month will be the time to make them.  The timing, as usual is the hard part.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to hopefully be prepared for Monday morning.  Monday is a partial holiday in the US and some foreign markets will be closed.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The volatility is extreme.  The Dow fell 335 points today, which wiped out yesterdays advance.  The advance/declines were 7 to 1 negative.  Volume was heavy.  If we get follow through downside then I will have to say going through the zero line on the summation index will cause the rapid decline that has been envisioned here.  If we head back up tomorrow then who knows?  Anything can happen at this rate.  Of course I'm hoping we get more downside as my OEX October puts are back to having a nice gain.  The fact that we could not hold the gains of Wednesday is bearish.  But anything can happen in this game.  You need to keep an eye on things going forward.  GE was off 1/2 and the volume was average.  Perhaps the March calls can be had at a good price soon.  However I would not attempt anything until after the October earnings report.  Gold was up almost $20 on the futures but most of that was from the aftermarket yesterday.  The US dollar was up today as well.  Flight to safety?  The XAU gave back 3 1/8.  Now I am not so sure of the rebound in the gold shares.  ABX off 3/8, GG fell 7/8 and NEM shed almost 1 1/4.  Volume was heavy here again.  Yesterday I thought that the decline in the gold shares was done for good.  Today I'm not so sure.  I'll have to consider it tonight though.  Gold is seeing a bid here and the gold shares are following the overall market lower.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  The computer problems aren't helping things.  Tomorrow should be another interesting day.  Technically we're in a vulnerable spot for rapid downside in my opinion.  The market is trying to make up its mind here.  I'm not saying that we will see an October crash but the conditions are there.  They rarely are.  Caution is advised and keep an eye on things that you would like to own for the longer term.  Gold and the gold shares are out of control and have been.  The technicals ceased working there at the beginning of September.  They are way oversold but who says they can't go lower?  Maybe yesterday was just a dead cat bounce for the gold shares and gold.  I don't know.  I will be once again looking at the January calls though.  The overnight markets should be rocking and rolling.  We'll see how the week wraps up tomorrow.  

Another crazy day in the neighborhood as the Dow turned things around on the Fed minutes and blasted off to the upside.  It gained 274 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  We are back to a bullish pattern on the daily S&P 500 candlestick chart.  Although the summation index is heading lower, after today it appears that this indicator will turn up in the next few sessions.  The volatility is pretty rampant right now.  Today was a combination of actual buying combined with a lot of short covering.  My October OEX puts are still in the black even with todays powerful upside.  They have lost the bulk of their profit though.  Only seven days left for this trade.  GE was up 3/8 and the volume was good.  A lot of stocks are showing a bullish turnaround after today.  GE is one of them.  No trades in mind here for now.  The gold futures were down in the regular session but took off in the aftermarket for an $8 gain.  The US dollar was lower on the Fed minutes.  The real story here was the one day reversal in the XAU as it soared 5 1/3.  ABX up 3/4, GG climbed two points and NEM rose a buck.  Volume was good.  Any pullback can be bought here in my opinion.  It appears that the roughly $1200 level on gold will hold.  This morning was the perfect time to purchase the gold share calls.  Mentally I'm in trouble.  My computer and its back-up crashed today midway through the trading session.  I was able to temporarily restore the connection to my accounts but usual procedures were not available.  I now have to purchase and install new trading equipment.  This is certainly not the ideal time to deal with that.  The major stock indices appear that they will be able to hold on after todays price action.  Once again unless there is a dramatic turnaround tomorrow, prices should move higher from here.  It is a crazy game sometimes.  But we have to go with what the market tells us.  Keep a close eye on the McClellan oscillator and summation index.  The summation index should turn around by the end of the week.  The move in the gold shares today was incredible.  There still might be a chance to try the calls there but we will have to be patient.  Sometimes, things can turn on a dime.  We saw that today for the gold shares.  The reality is that really nothing has changed from yesterday.  But money moves around regardless.  We should see more follow through upside for the stock market tomorrow.  I would also expect the overseas markets to rally overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.