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Monday, November 17, 2014

Another day of hanging around as the Dow rose 13 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues higher.  The small stocks were lower and that is not a positive.  The TRAN was lower today as well.  We are overdue for some type of decline but it is option expiration week.  The short term indicators have rolled over for the small caps but not for the major stock indices.  Your guess as to what happens next is as good as mine.  No OEX trades for now.  GE was up over 1/8 on OK volume.  I'm still considering the March calls here but there hasn't been a pullback for the purchase.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures, which wasn't too bad considering the good gains in the US dollar.  The XAU was up 1 1/8 as the gold shares out performed.  That's a good sign for the bulls.  ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional gains on good volume.  Somebody is buying the gold shares.  My ABX January calls are still showing a decent profit.  Not completely short term overbought yet for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  With the weakness in the small stocks it would not be a surprise to see some selling here.  But with the positive expiration week bias, I doubt any meaningful decline is around the corner.  With a holiday week looming it could just be more of the same stagnation.  I simply don't know.  When in doubt, stay out.  I think that gold has experienced some short covering in the past couple of weeks.  The gold share indexes are on the verge of breaking through the down trend lines on a daily basis that began in the beginning of September.  If we can get through them with volume it would be a short term positive.  But it hasn't happened yet.  We'll keep an eye on what happens overnight and take it from there.

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