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Friday, November 14, 2014

Still just hanging around for the stock market as the Dow fell 18 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still heading up.  We really just went sideways this week and perhaps that is enough of a rest before we head higher.  Expiration week and its positive bias is coming up.  With a holiday week to follow.  So I don't expect any major declines or any surprises.  Steady as she goes for now.  GE gained a nickel and the volume was extremely light.  No hurry to do anything here.  Gold had an unusual session as it took off to the upside for no apparent reason.  The dollar was weaker today but not enough to justify the gold futures taking off by over $25 and a bit more in the aftermarket.  Short covering in my opinion.  The XAU gained over 4 points.  ABX up 3/4, GG gained 1 1/8 and NEM added 7/8.  Volume was good to the upside.  The weekly gold share charts still appear to be trying to hammer out a bottom after todays price action.  My ABX January calls are solidly in the black.  But we know anything can happen in this game.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit off, did not feel well last night.  Perhaps some rest is due.  I don't see anything in the near term that could derail the recent rally.  We are overdue for a pause but none seems to be forthcoming.  The technical indicators are overbought and simply remaining that way.  We are in a positive seasonal area for stocks.  I do not expect a lot of tax loss selling this year because there really aren't a lot of losses.  But that's a guess as usual.  What isn't a guess is that all declines will be bought for now.  Gold had a huge move to the upside today and got back above the $1180 level.  I can't say I saw that coming.  The next goal will be $1200.  Not overbought yet on the gold shares.  However there are plenty of losses to take in this sector if they haven't been taken already.  I'm not sure when to book the profit for the January ABX call trade but it may be sooner rather than later.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend.  With only five days remaining in the November option cycle, I doubt I'll be attempting any trades next week.  But you never know.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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