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Thursday, November 06, 2014

The stock markets continue to climb higher.  The Dow gained 70 points on what passes now for average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  The employment report is due tomorrow and I get the feeling that regardless of the data the market will rally.  The Dow and the TRAN continue to make new daily all time highs.  That fact is getting no press at this time.  The trend is up until proven otherwise.  GE had a good session as it gained 1/2 on good volume.  Will I get a chance to buy the March calls here?  Not at least until this issue gets oversold and that could be a while.  The move higher bodes well for the overall market.  Gold appears to be trying to stabilize here as it lost a few bucks on the futures.  The US dollar took off to the upside again and crossed the 88 level.  The fact that gold didn't drop even more is interesting and confusing at the same time.  The gold shares somehow found a bid and the XAU was up 2 2/3.  ABX and NEM rose 1/3, while GG was higher by 3/4.  Volume was good for the gold shares.  Probably just some short covering for the gold shares today.  The fundamentals for gold remain bearish.  My ABX January calls are showing a small profit.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Everything is pointing to rising stock index prices and we'll move tomorrow off of the employment report.  The short term technicals for the major stock indices remain overbought but in strong moves higher that is the case.  Enjoy the ride.  Gold and silver remain unloved.  So why would I try the gold share calls here?  If my prognosis that this is the 5th and final leg down for the gold shares, a snap back rally should ensue.  That and the extreme oversold nature of these stocks provide the technical case for the trade.  Combined with the extreme bearishness and general feeling that gold has nowhere to go but down helps build the contrarian argument.  However as always the markets go where they want.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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