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Friday, November 07, 2014

We bounced around for most of todays session and finished with a gain of 19 points on the Dow on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The employment report came in just a bit lighter than expected but it wasn't a drastic development.  The stock indices sold off and came back twice.  Still overbought and staying there for the short term technical picture.  I don't see any big declines coming and a grind higher would not be a surprise.  The trend is up.  GE gained a nickel on lighter volume.  I'd like the March calls if GE falls back, although that does not appear to be happening anytime soon.  Gold was a surprise today as it took off to the upside.  The futures gained over $25 as the US dollar had a good decline on the day.  Probably short covering for gold because the overall fundamental picture there hasn't changed.  The gold shares added to yesterdays gains with the XAU up 4 3/4.  ABX gained 3/4, GG rose 1 1/2 and NEM added a buck.  Volume was good here.  Some bargain hunting along with short covering is my guess for todays price action.  My ABX January calls are in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not feel well last night.  The major stock indexes are still in a straight line up pattern form the lows of mid-October.  This cannot last.  We are hitting new all time highs on some of the indices almost every day.  That fact that this is not receiving a lot of press bodes well for higher prices as we go along.  But we do need to take a rest at some point.  Perhaps that will be the opportunity to purchase some calls.  I expect the beginning of next week to be slow.  Tuesday is another bank holiday in the US.  Gold had it's best day in months today for whatever reason.  The daily candlestick chart here now has a bullish pattern.  Perhaps gold can get back to $1200 off of this snap back attempt.  It's also possible that the gold shares are trying to put a stop to their decline here as well.  The weekly candlestick charts here had their first positive close in nine weeks.  Volume was heavy going higher as well and that's bullish.  But we will need to see some follow through upside next week to have a more constructive picture of the situation.  The blog will be off on Monday and Tuesday as I am taking a mini-vacation in the mountains and will not have internet access.  I'll have a recap of those days here on Wednesday when I return.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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