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Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Another run to new highs as the Dow gained 40 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  Still pretty overbought here.  The final hour saw the market lose ground and that usually isn't positive going forward.  However we can see the positive upward bias of option expiration week in force today.  Plus the overall market and the small stocks were stronger than the Dow.  GE was up 3/8 and the volume was good.  GE was a precursor for the market once again.  It doesn't look like I'll get a chance for the March calls here.  Gold had a positive session with the futures gaining $13.  The US dollar fell today for a change.  I can make a case that the dollar has had a five wave up move since the beginning of July.  If that is so then more dollar weakness will follow.  We'll see.  The XAU was up 3 1/8.  ABX and GG gained 3/4, while NEM rose 2/3.  Volume was good and we broke above the down trend lines that have been in effect since the beginning of September on the gold share indices.  My ABX January calls are showing good gains for now.  The next question is when to sell.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks like higher prices are coming for the major stock indices.  Although we remain very overbought all signs appear to be pointing higher for now.  Any declines can be bought in my opinion.  The gold shares are breaking out to the upside.  Price and volume are finally positive here now.  I don't know how long it will last.  But we should at least make it to the 50 day moving averages.  We'll see what happens tomorrow. 

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