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Tuesday, November 04, 2014

Another day of mixed results as the Dow rose 17 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative though.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index continues higher.  This is probably a digestion period due to the recent gains.  We'll get the election results overnight and they will most likely indicate a stalemate for Washington.  That should be a positive for the stock market.  We're still overbought on the short term technical indicators for the major stock indices.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was light.  Gold didn't do much on the futures today despite a drop in the US dollar.  The XAU fell 2 1/2 and returned to under perform the metal.  ABX, GG and NEM all fell around 1/2 on good volume again.  What appeared to be an attempt to hammer out a bottom for the gold shares isn't holding up.  I still have the open order for the January ABX calls but I may have to adjust it lower.  Or perhaps forget about it altogether.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we have had a straight line rally form the lows in October.  This cannot last forever.  Perhaps it is time for some sideways activity to consolidate the gains.  I do not expect any large scale decline because I think that there will be buyers to step in.  The VIX had a spike and we are now back at more normal levels.  After tomorrows price action it should be a waiting game for Fridays employment numbers.  Gold and silver are in incredible bear markets.  However on the weekly gold share charts I can make a case that we are in the fifth and final leg down.  How far down it goes is the question.  I'll rethink the January calls tonight.  We'll watch the election returns come in tonight and see what tomorrow brings. 

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