So here we are.  The Dow fell 272 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower and has gone through the zero line.  This is what we have been waiting for.  No reason for the decline as the technicals have taken over.  How low will we go?  Who knows?  I'd guess to at least 1900 on the S&P 500.  The recent positive candlestick pattern on the S&P has been negated.  We don't get in this zone very often but it does get interesting when we do.  So keep a very close eye on things this week.  There will be opportunity because next year should be pretty good for the stock indices.  What I'm saying is that if you are looking to purchase stocks with a longer term horizon, the next couple of weeks will be when to really take a look.  GE fell 3/8 on average volume.  I'm looking at the March calls here but not to purchase just yet.  Gold was up $5 on the futures as the $1200 level tries to be the stopping point.  The gold shares did not follow as the XAU lost 2 7/8.  The US dollar was off just a bit.  ABX, GG and NEM were all down around 60 cents.  Volume was good.  The gold shares are so hammered that it is really hard to believe.  I'd like to try the calls again but it seems like that strategy has never worked for me this year.  It is probably best just to wait for some kind of positive divergence with the technicals and then maybe give them another try.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Things should continue lower here for the major stock indices.  My October OEX puts remain in the black.  When to sell them is the next challenge.  The 200 day moving average comes in at around 845.  Unless we get a complete turnaround tomorrow, we're heading lower and probably in a hurry.  Gold is starting to stop going down but the gold shares remain weak.  That could be a factor of the overall stock market decline and probably is.  I'll have to fight myself not to try and trade them with calls once again.  But you never know.  We'll see if the foreign markets continue their decline overnight.  Tomorrow should be an interesting session. 

A flip flop session and a slight one day reversal to the downside as the Dow fell 17 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  Although we have a bullish candlestick formation on the daily S&P 500 chart, I still think things could go either way.  The summation index has not turned around to the upside yet.  This week should be pivotal for market direction.  The small stocks were relatively weaker today also.  We are still right at the down trend line beginning in mid-September for the major stock indices.  A break through this line will be the all clear signal.  If not, lower prices are coming.  GE was off almost 20 cents on average volume.  Still below the 50 and 200 days moving averages here.  Gold found some buyers as the US dollar has its worst session in months.  The precious metal futures were up $14 and back above $1200.  The XAU rose 1 1/4.  ABX barely was higher, while NEM and GG added 1/2.  Volume was OK for the gold shares.  I said that I would not trade the gold shares again this year and that is probably what I will do.  However if I do see a divergent set-up here eventually, I might give them another try.  Just as the US dollar had a parabolic run up, gold has has a precipitous drop.  But as usual, one day doesn't make a trend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm still holding my October OEX puts and they are still showing a profit.  The only reason to continue to hold them here I've already spelled out.  But let us not forget that we are practically at the zero line in the summation index.  This doesn't happen very often.  If we break the zero line here the market will go into free fall.  I'm not saying that will happen but the chance is there and it rarely is.  This week should tell.  No reason for the drop in the dollar and the rise in gold today.  One has been overbought for an extended period and the other just the opposite.  The markets move where they want.  The gold shares didn't do much today and we would like them to be leaders to have a good feeling about gold moving higher.  We'll keep and eye on the action overseas tonight and see what tomorrow brings.

Quite a session as the Dow rallied on above average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The jobs number was high and the market took off from the open.  The summation index hasn't turned around yet but it is about to with more positive action.  I assumed that the zero line on the summation index would be taken out with a steep decline.  After today, it looks like the zero line will hold and contain this recent decline.  The daily S&P 500 candlestick chart now has a bullish bottoming pattern on it.  The banks stocks are doing well here and there can be no extended decline when these stocks are doing well.  GS would be an example of that.  My October OEX puts are still in the black.  I can thank a good opening spot for the position for that.  I will have to exit on a retest of the lows of this week, if that occurs.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume was light.  I do think the earnings here will be impacted by the recent rally in the US dollar.  So I am waiting on getting some March calls for next year.  Gold broke through the $1200 level today as the bear market for metals hits new lows.  The US dollar soared on the day and is parabolic in nature.  The XAU fell 3 1/4.  ABX and NEM dropped 1/2, while GG fell a buck.  Volume was good for the gold shares to the downside again.  The price dropped past my stop loss order for the ABX January calls that I own early this morning.  I simply sold them at the market when that happened.  That is another of the new risk management rules I've put in place.  If the price goes past the stop loss price, just get out at the market.  This won't happen often but it could occur.  The loss here was just a bit over 50%.  I don't know how much lower the gold shares can go but this is beyond ridiculous.  Oversold, staying there and it looks like gold wants to go to $1000 after today.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  All of the major stock indices are showing positive daily candlestick charts after todays action despite recently breaking their up trend lines.  We are also right up against the down trend line for the S&P 500 that began in mid-September.  I expect that line will be broken to the upside next week.  The only thing that would change the positive outlook would be a very negative week next week.  I do not think that will happen.  Some of the technical indicators got to levels this past week that contained previous declines.  It seems as if they have contained this decline as well.  Speaking of declines, gold and silver continue a relentless move lower.  The gold shares as well.  It all seems to be US dollar related.  I will probably not trade gold again this year.  I've lost way too much money there already.  I was pleased that I simply sold off the losing ABX call position today.  I actually did what I was supposed to do for a change, even if it was for a loss.  I did not move the stop lower even though the contracts don't expire until January.  So at least I did something right this year.  Now I will have to decide how to get rid of the October OEX puts.  I'll debate that over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A pretty good comeback today as the Dow was down over 100 points and made it back to finish the day with a loss of 3 points.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  Volume was heavy again.  The summation index continues lower.  My guess is short covering today ahead of tomorrows employment report but who knows?  Rallies appear out of nowhere in down trends.  And we are still in a down trend.  Almost at the zero line on the summation index.  The small stocks acted better today but one day doesn't make a trend.  GE was off a few cents on average volume.  No trades here for now.  Gold was little changed despite a drop in the US dollar.  The XAU gained 2/3.  ABX was flat on the session, while GG and NEM had fractional gains.  Volume was good here.  Nothing to change the persistent selling in gold and the gold shares.  Oversold, staying that way with no end in sight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Tomorrows price action will be pretty important.  If we rally there is a chance that the decline is over.  But I don't think that will occur.  I think that we are in a multi-week decline and things will get worse to the downside before they get better.  I really don't think the numbers tomorrow mean as much as the price action afterwards.  We are short term oversold on the stock indices.  However in downturns the markets simply remain that way.  So we'll see.  Gold has stayed above $1200 so far but there hasn't been any rally attempt yet.  The gold shares remain weak.  This is like a broken record.  The foreign markets got slammed last night.  Perhaps todays action in the Dow will help out there.  But there is trouble in the streets of Hong Kong and that isn't going away soon.  Interesting times.  So hold on to your seats folks as tomorrow should be a very volatile session. 

More downside to start the month of October as the Dow fell 238 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  It looks like we will now fall apart with respect to the stock indices.  The summation index is going to go through the zero line.  This is what was a possibility but now will become reality.  The small stocks continue to show relative weakness and that is a negative.  How low will we go?  I'm guessing to the 200 day moving average at least.  That is the 1900 level on the S&P 500.  Up trend lines have now been broken.  So keep an extra eye on things as they develop here.  Could get ugly but it will be interesting.  GE lost almost 1/2 on good volume.  Not sure how far GE will go down but lower from here for sure.  GE wasn't a precursor this time around.  Gold found a slight bid but closed off of the highs and was only up a few bucks.  The US dollar barely moved today.  The XAU was off a few cents after being higher earlier in the session.  ABX and GG had slight fractional gains, while NEM lost a few cents.  Volume was OK.  My ABX calls are still in the red and about to be stopped out.  Gold and the gold shares remain unloved.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So now we will see just how far this thing goes down.  It should be in a hurry, as that's how the market goes when the technicals collapse.  The question is will they run things down all the way to expiration this month?  It will be hard for me to hold on to the October OEX puts that long.  I'll have to look for support levels and then decide what to do when we get there.  The 200 day moving average for the OEX is around 840.  Gold has no takers despite the turmoil.  Perhaps $1200 can hold but that's simply a guess on my part.  I've been wrong about the direction of gold for most if not all of the year.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the US equity lead down overnight.  And we haven't even gotten to the employment report on Friday.

The month and quarter ended with a whimper as the Dow fell 28 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index continues lower.  It is edging closer to the zero line.  That is why I'm still holding on to the October OEX puts.  If we go through that line things will get ugly.  Hasn't happened yet.  The stock indices are short term oversold.  Friday should be the day of reckoning, one way or the other for the market.  The employment report and the reaction to it will tell the story.  GE was up 20 cents, gaining back what it lost yesterday.  If GE is a precursor once again, the market will hold up here.  No trades for GE at the moment.  Gold continues to fall as it dropped ten bucks with the futures and aftermarket combined.  The US dollar continues to the upside unabated.  The technicals aren't working anymore for gold and silver.  The simply remain very oversold.  The XAU dropped 1 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all fell 1/3 or more on good volume.  My January ABX calls were almost stopped out.  I am wondering if I should move to the next strike price lower if they do get sold.  The long gold share call trade hasn't worked at all for me so far this year.  Perhaps just abandoning this idea would be the best course of action.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes could go either way here but I have to keep leaning to the bearish outcome.  The RUT has underperformed here by so much that I do believe lower overall prices are in the future.  I could be wrong.  I said before that some of the medium term technical indicators are at levels that have contained the previous declines and led to rallies.  Friday should be the key.  I don't know what else I can say about the gold and silver market.  Lower prices are met be even lower prices.  No bounce, no bargain hunting, no nothing.  This market will recover but when that happens is not something that I can predict.  With all the world wide turmoil that exists, the non rally in the precious metals is beyond confusing.  Perhaps this isn't a market to trade after all.  However it could also be said that the strong dollar trumps all else and is the only reason for the demise in gold and silver.  And with US interest rates with only one way to go, gold may not be any good from the long side for some time to come.  Just a thought.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and see how the 4th quarter begins tomorrow.

Another volatile session today as the Dow fell 41 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The market fell straight down at the open and we were down over 170 points early.  But the stock indices spent the rest of the day making up ground and it was pretty impressive after the opening.  The decline is either over or we are hanging on for dear life before something big to the downside happens.  The summation index continues lower.  The small stocks hung on better and that is a positive.  End of the month tomorrow.  GE was off almost 1/4 and the volume was average.  Solidly below both the 50 and 200 day moving averages now.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures but back down in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was flat on the session.  The XAU was off another point.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  The gold shares are completely blown out to the downside.  The technicals have been so oversold for so long that they don't even mean anything anymore.  My January ABX calls are in the red and on their way to the stop loss point.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock market made quite a comeback from the early bout of selling.  That cannot be ignored.  I would expect to see more buying tomorrow.  But I cannot get too bullish until the summation index turns around.  There is a chance that the selling is done for now.  Some of the medium term indicators are at levels where we have started to rally again.  Tough game as always.  The gold shares are decimated.  We'll probably see some more end of the month and quarter selling tomorrow.  That trade looks like it will be a loser.  We'll see how the foreign markets react overnight and go from there.

Quite an interesting day as the Dow climbed back 167 points.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  That is better than we have seen lately.  The volume was light though.  The summation index continues lower.  Volatility has really picked up.  I thought we would simply be heading down but now it looks like anything could happen.  With todays price action the daily S&P 500 candlestick chart is showing a bullish belt hold pattern.  We will have to see if this rise continues next week.  My October OEX puts are still in the black but they lost a lot of their value today.  GE was up a few cents on around average volume.  Trying to hold the 50 week moving average here.  Gold was off $6 on the futures as the US dollar had another strong session.  Well above the 85 level for the dollar and there is no indication that the rally will end.  Overbought and staying there for the dollar.  The XAU lost another point.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  I have expected a bounce in the gold shares for weeks now.  The positive seasonals never kicked in.  The gold shares have remained oversold for weeks.  Gold will not rally with the dollar continuing its strength.  There is nothing on the horizon that will change that scenario.  I suppose I should have not tried the gold share calls again.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It wasn't exactly the way I would have liked to see the week end in the stock indices.  Todays up move was not what I expected.  Perhaps the decline is over but I'm not sold on that idea just yet.  Plenty of time in the October option cycle.  We do have the end of the month and the quarter coming up on Tuesday.  Plenty of economic data due out next week including the employment report.  I would expect more of the same 100+ point moves next week unless there is a dramatic change in the landscape.  I have no idea when the decline in the precious metals will end.  Oversold for many weeks now and I think perhaps I may even stop trading there and simply focus on the stock indexes.  The US dollar has gone straight up for three months.  It eventually won't end well there for the bulls but I cannot predict when that will be.  With all the turmoil around the world, normally you would expect to see a flight to safety.  Usually that includes the gold market.  This time around it looks like money is concentrated in the US dollar for that reason and the looming rise in US interest rates.  So gold and the gold shares continue to suffer.  That's my view there.  Plenty of work to do over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

I guess there will be no doubt about the market direction now.  The Dow fell 264 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The major averages closed on their lows once again.  The McClellan oscillator is pretty oversold but in market declines it can stay that way.  The advance yesterday turns out to be nothing more than a dead cat bounce.  The summation index is starting to get close to the zero line.  That is the area that must hold or the stock averages will begin to fall apart.  Caution is advised.  GE dropped over 1/3 on average volume.  GE took out yesterdays lows and is back below both the 50 and 200 day moving averages.  Gold found a slight bid and the futures were up a couple bucks.  The US dollar was higher as well and now above the 85 level.  The XAU was flat on the session but rose from the daily low.  ABX, GG and NEM had slight fractional gains on OK volume.  Perhaps if the stock indices continue to drop, gold can find some buyers.  Hasn't happened yet.  My January ABX calls are still in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Perhaps we are at the beginning of a multi-week decline.  That would be my guess as of today.  My October OEX puts are solidly in the black.  Now the decision when to sell the puts becomes the next job.  I'm going to give it some time.  Because if we are into something big here, the profits will be pretty good.  It won't make up for the money that was lost last month but it certainly would help.  Some of the major stock indices are at up trend lines that began in May.  If these lines don't hold we will be heading lower in a hurry.  Getting oversold on the daily technicals but not all the way there yet.  Still no real buyers in the precious metals complex.  I don't know when that will turn around.  But as I said if there is a rout in the stock market we could see a flight to safety occur.  The decline began in the European markets last night.  We'll keep an eye on what transpires there tonight and close out the trading week tomorrow.

A nice bounce today as the Dow gained 154 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  However the breadth was not what you would expect with a market up so much.  That is the problem that I'm having with any recent rally.  I still think it is setting up for some decent downside in the October option cycle.  Now I could be wrong and we simply move higher from here and on to new highs in the major stock indices.  The summation index is still moving down.  My October OEX puts are still profitable but another day like today and they won't be.  It will be important to see how this week closes.  GE was off about a dime after being much lower.  Volume picked up.  No trades here for now.  Gold was off a few bucks as the US dollar hit the 85 level.  The XAU shed 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on average volume.  The January ABX calls that I own are in the red.  The story remains the same in the precious metals complex.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The move higher today was more than I expected.  The major stock averages now have a bullish candlestick formation on the daily charts.  We'll see if there is any follow through tomorrow.  Some economic data due tomorrow.  Silver is very oversold and trying to hold up so far this week.  Some kind of bounce here is way overdue.  Perhaps if that occurs, the precious metal shares will find a bid.  Things here cannot stay oversold forever.  Tonight we'll see if the foreign markets rally back up following the Dow today.

Continuing lower as the Dow fell 116 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The small stocks did not decline as much as the Dow which may mean that we will see some bounce tomorrow.  However I think that it is safe to say that things have changed for the stock indices.  No longer term up trend lines have been violated yet but that could occur.  We closed right on the lows for the day on some of the stock indexes and that is not a positive.  I'll be keeping an eye on the breadth as it gave a clue as to what is going on at the moment.  My October OEX puts remain in the black for now.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  GE is holding up well here.  Perhaps it is not going to be a precursor this time around.  Gold was up around $5 on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU was up 1 3/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume.  Still no love for the gold shares.  The January ABX calls that I bought are in the red.  Plenty of time for this trade and the stop loss order is in.  Perhaps some overall stock market weakness will spur some interest in the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Perhaps my timing on the October OEX puts was correct this time.  We'll see.  The short term technicals for the stock indices haven't reached oversold just yet.  The up trend line for the Dow comes in at around 16600.  We are not close to that yet.  Gold stopped falling today but that by no means says the decline is done.  Silver has held up for a couple of days as well but that doesn't really mean anything yet.  These markets are overblown to the downside in my opinion.  The gold shares indices are trying to stop at the lows made in June.  Sooner or later there will be a decent bounce here.  We'll see how the overseas markets react to todays decline in the US and take it from there.

The week has started on a down note as the Dow fell 107 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The small stocks are so far leading the way lower.  One day doesn't make a trend though.  The summation index continues lower.  My October OEX puts are in the black but not a lot.  Breadth is getting worse and I still think lower prices are in the near term picture for the major stock indices.  GE was off almost 1/4 but the volume was light.  No trades here for now.  I may go out to next years March calls here eventually.  Gold barely closed higher despite a weaker US dollar.  The XAU lost another 2 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on average volume.  Silver was lower but at least came off of its lows.  The January ABX calls that I bought are in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Weakness today but the week has just begun and the market can be fickle.  Not a lot of economic data due out this week.  The short term technicals have rolled over but are not oversold yet.  The daily candlestick chart of the Dow has a bearish topping pattern on it.  I believe lower prices are coming but how low is the question.  As always, I could be wrong.  But I would advise caution in the market right now.  Gold and the gold shares are in a steep drop.  How long this will go on is anyones guess.  I'm taking a chance with the gold share calls here but the stop loss order is in.  If the trade doesn't work out, at least there won't be another huge loss.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets tonight and see what tomorrow brings.

It was a one day reversal to the downside for most of the major stock indices but not the Dow as it gained 14 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative though.  The underlying breadth continues to deteriorate and that cannot be ignored.  It was Alibaba day on the exchange and trading there was whipped up into an IPO frenzy.  I am still a believer that lower prices are coming in the next few weeks.  I once again bought some OEX puts, going out to October.  I have a stop loss order placed at 50%.  Hopefully I'll be able to keep it there.  The stock indices are now short term overbought.  GE was up a few cents and the volume continues to be better than average.  My September GE calls expired worthless for a 100% loss.  The percentage loss should never happen again.  Gold continued lower and fell another $10 on the futures.  The US dollar bounced back from yesterdays loss and negated the bearish daily candlestick pattern.  Getting close to the resistance level of 85 on the dollar.  The XAU lost 2 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on heavy volume.  All are short and medium term oversold.  My open order for the January ABX calls was filled.  I have a stop loss order in at 50%.  I'm not feeling as good about this trade but support for ABX comes in at $15.50 and we are almost there.  Mentally I'm feeling a little tired.  Some of my thinking here goes along with the lines of things being propped up as usual for expiration week in the stock market.  Perhaps we will get a cleared picture of the actual prevailing trend next week.  I will say that it is not bullish when the small stocks lag and they have been for a while.  Also at this point the advance/decline line is not confirming the move higher in the big caps.  That could change.  One of the new trading rules involves placing a stop loss order when each trade is filled.  The order is placed so that the maximum loss is 50% of the amount of the trade.  Obviously if I place a trade and it loses half of its value, I've done something wrong.  Keeping the stop loss order at 50% and not moving it down will be the challenge.  But it shouldn't be.  Not all ideas are correct.  Gold continues lower and silver is absolutely getting crushed.  The time to buy is when blood is in the streets according to an old wall street saying.  However things can go even lower than you think as they can go higher.  I'm still willing to take a trade on the ABX calls here though.  Probably won't be holding this trade until January but it does have some time to work out.  The gold shares are very oversold.  It was an eventful week for the markets this week.  How will things follow through next week is the question to ponder over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Expiration levitation continues as the Dow rose 109 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  I did not think that we would break out to new highs but here we are.  The small stocks continue to lag and that is not a positive.  But you cannot argue with price.  I got rid of my remaining September OEX puts for practically a 100% loss.  That trade was a catastrophe.  I am implementing new rules and will try my best to have the discipline necessary for success.  The short term technicals for the market have turned around and are heading higher.  But I continue to see weak breadth on this advance.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was good.  My September GE calls will expire worthless.  Thankfully there wasn't much money in that trade.  Not near a recovery high here yet.  I do think that the stronger dollar will be impacting the big multi-national earnings in this quarter.  Time will tell on that.  Gold lost ten bucks on the futures but that really occurred late yesterday.  The US dollar had a weak session and the daily candlestick chart now looks bearish.  The XAU fell 1 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM were all lower on average volume.  These stocks are blown out to the downside and the technicals as well.  I did place an open order for the January ABX calls in anticipation of lower prices as gold drifts towards $1200.  I'll cancel it over the weekend if it isn't filled tomorrow.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  Having some minor issues outside of the markets to deal with.  We'll probably see some more upside tomorrow with the offering of Alibaba providing the excitement.  The summation index has yet to turn around and I still feel that bears watching.  The RUT is not near recovery highs either.  The broader NYA is lagging here as well.  It usually isn't a good sign when the narrow Dow is leading the way.  Gold remains the same.  Oversold and staying there.  Ditto for the gold shares.  But I'm willing to try them again.  Sometimes it is best to buy what nobody else wants.  We'll see.  Should be an interesting Friday with the Scottish voting results, Alibaba and option expiration.  Stay tuned.

Now at least we have the Fed out of the way for a while.  The Dow gained 24 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The market got a pop to the upside after the Fed announcement but sold off in the final hour.  It's options expiration week and the positive bias is certainly present.  But if you look closely, the breadth is starting to deteriorate.  The summation index is still heading lower.  I'm a believer in lower prices moving forward for the next few weeks.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was average.  No trades here for now.  My September puts will expire worthless.  Gold was flat on the futures but off over ten bucks in the aftermarket.  The fundamentals remain bearish here.  The XAU dropped almost two points.  ABX, GG and NEM were all off 1/3 or more on average volume.  I'm waiting for gold to drop to $1200 before I think about getting the January gold share calls.  Even then, it may not be the right idea.  But gold and the gold shares are blown out to the downside, so at least some kind of bounce is way overdue.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  Volatility picked up today and I expect some more near term.  I think tomorrow will be a bit more interesting than traders expect.  I left in an order to sell my remaining September OEX puts.  They are almost worthless and will essentially be a total loss.  From here on out I will be implementing my new trading rules.  That should limit any future losses to 50% max.  It is long overdue.  But supposedly you learn more from your mistakes than from your successes.  That is certainly the case for me at this point.  Gold and silver continue to drop and there is no end in sight.  There is no rush to do anything on the long side here.  I will try my best to be patient at this point.  We'll see what happens in the overnight markets and await the vote in Scotland tomorrow.  Although Scotland is a minor player in the whole scheme of the market, the outcome of the vote will be a reason for the currency markets to move.

Turnaround Tuesday as the Dow gained 100 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  Fed chatter was the reason for todays gains but the oversold nature of the market was the technical clue.  The McClellan oscillator was near minus 200 yesterday.  We'll get movement on the Fed statement tomorrow.  The summation index is still heading lower despite todays gains.  My remaining September OEX puts are practically worthless.  It's anybodies guess which way we head tomorrow.  GE rose over 1/4 on better volume.  My September puts here are worthless.  Gold was up a buck or so on the futures.  The US dollar was lower today.  The XAU gained 3/4.  ABX and GG were up 1/8, while NEM was flat.  Volume was OK here.  Gold may move on the Fed tomorrow but the underlying bearish fundamentals will remain.  I'm still looking at some January gold share calls eventually.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Tomorrow will tell the story for the stock indices.  If we move higher, then most likely new highs will be in the near future.  If we give up todays gains, then perhaps the long awaited correction will be underway.  Regardless of what is said tomorrow by the Fed, interest rates really have no place to go but up.  With rates at zero, what do you expect?  Eventually the market will react.  Gold remains unloved.  All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.

A very mixed market today as the Dow gained 43 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The NASDAQ got slammed but the big caps held up well.  The weaker action in the small stocks isn't bullish.  The summation index continues lower.  I sold some of my September OEX put position for a 95% loss.  I'm still holding the closer to the money puts.  I think that despite option expiration we will be heading lower this week.  I could be wrong.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was very light.  It looks like my September GE puts will expire worthless.  Inexcusable.  Gold was up three bucks on the futures.  The US dollar finished the session little changed.  Ditto for the XAU.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other with light volume.  I sold the October ABX calls that I had for a 95% loss as well.  I'm considering the January gold share calls now.  I may attempt that trade if and when gold gets to the $1200 level.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Oversold on the major index short term technicals.  Waiting on the Fed which will have their statement out on Wednesday.  The fact that the small stocks had such a lousy session is perhaps a clue of things to come.  However the market could just as easily turn around tomorrow.  It is not an easy game to play.  I have a new set of trading rules that perhaps I'll share at the end of the week.  Like I've said before, following them with strict discipline will be the key.  Otherwise they are worth nothing.  At least as I liquidate the losing trades, it will give me a clean slate to perhaps start doing things correctly.  Gold remains in a down trend and not interesting to anyone unless they are short.  The strong US dollar has taken care of that and the price of oil as well.  In fact all of the commodity complex is under pressure.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and go from there.

We did not head higher as I expected as the Dow fell 61 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index is heading lower.  We did come up from the lows of the day as the market is not falling as rapidly as the advance/declines would suggest.  Could be expiration related already.  We've got the Fed next week but I don't expect any surprises there.  My September puts remain losers.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume picked up just a tad.  Gold continues to drop as the futures there fell another seven bucks.  The US dollar was off a dime or so.  The XAU dropped 1 1/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all were off 1/3 or more on average volume.  I think gold is headed to $1200.  If correct we have another $30 to go.  But anything can happen in this game.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Some of the weekly technicals have rolled over in the major stock indices.  Caution is advised for now.  I do not think we will see enough decline next week to save my OEX put trades though.  Expiration week usually has a positive bias.  But with the summation index pointing down, bullish positions are not favored at this time.  That's just my view and my views haven't been right lately.  I might try the gold share calls again if we get to $1200 on gold.  That is the last major support for the precious metal until $1000.  However the fundamentals for gold here are not bullish.  The US dollar is in a huge rally but is approaching resistance at the 85 level.  Perhaps a wait and see attitude would be best here.  If gold cannot rally when it is supposed to seasonally, then maybe it is one of those years that it simply continues downward.  I don't know.  I'll be setting up my new trading rules over the weekend.  The set up is easy.  Strictly following them is the hard part.  The losses that I will have to take next week make change a necessity.  I'll try my best to finish out the trading year on a positive note.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow fell 19 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  It was however a one day reversal to the upside for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ.  The market has all the feel of something that is going to go higher.  The summation index is heading lower still though.  But with expiration week coming up, I wouldn't be surprised if we start to move up tomorrow.  Perhaps the retail sales numbers will trigger something.  My September OEX puts are dead.  Unless we see a drop tomorrow, I'll be booking huge losses.  GE was up a few cents and the volume remains light.  My September puts are toast here as well.  Should dump them tomorrow, if possible.  Gold continued to slide, the futures lost another six bucks.  We're at the $1240 level and very oversold.  The US dollar continued higher today.  The XAU turned around for some reason and was up 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on OK volume.  My October ABX calls are practically worthless as well.  No hope for this trade.  I did consider going out to the January strike price for some calls here today.  But perhaps the sidelines are the best place for me to go at the moment.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm going to have to revise and change my trading tactics after the recent losses in the options market.  I have an idea on what will help but implementing it will be the challenge.  It is one thing when the technicals don't work.  It is quite another when you can't admit that your ideas were wrong and you simply need to bail out.  That is where the problem lies here.  The markets are unrelenting and not really interested in your ideas.  There are enormous sums of money moving around.  As an individual trader you can't expect to have any influence on what transpires in this game.  You can do all the work and all the study but the only thing that matters is the bottom line.  When you get in and when you get out.  The options game is tough as you have not only price and time but volatility to factor in.  The rewards can be great.  But the losses can be humbling.  The short term technicals for the major stock indices are trying to curl back to the upside.  The small stocks moved higher today and that is a positive.  I'm expecting higher prices tomorrow.  Gold is dropping and there seems to be no end in sight.  If we can't hold $1240, then I guess the next stop will be $1200.  I might try the ABX January calls soon or I might just sit on the sidelines for a while.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 54 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  We will see if the decline has been contained to what has happened early this week or if it is something for real.  The next couple of days will tell the story.  The summation index is still heading lower.  My September OEX puts are all but dead at this point.  GE was up a nickel and the volume remains light.  Hanging around the 50 and 200 day moving averages.  Gold was down a few bucks again on the futures today as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU fell 1 1/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  Same story for gold and the gold shares.  The trend is down and the fundamentals are negative.  Technically oversold and staying there.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well again.  Seven days to go in the September option cycle.  If the stock indices are going to have a decent decline, we'll have to see some downside within the next two days.  Otherwise I believe that we will trend up to new highs in expiration week.  All of my outstanding option positions are losers.  I will have to book the losses soon.  We haven't seen much volatility since after Labor day and that wasn't expected by me.  The light volume remains troublesome by my standards.  However we haven't seen the decline that I expected.  The foreign markets didn't really react to yesterdays decline in the Dow.  We'll follow the overnight action and take it from there. 

The Dow fell 97 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow and that is bearish.  The summation index is now heading lower.  I kind of doubt that there will be enough decline in the next eight days to save my September OEX puts but in this game you never know.  We were down from the start but got a lift from the AAPL product show.  However the gains did not hold and we headed lower for much of the rest of the session.  Not oversold yet for the major stock indices but on the way there.  The VIX took a bump up but remains below its 200 day moving average.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume was light.  The recent candlestick pattern here looks bearish on the daily chart.  Gold continued lower, down another five bucks on the futures.  The US dollar had a slight drop today as well.  The XAU actually gained 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional gains on average volume.  My October ABX calls remain losers and are very far out of the money.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, not a good nights sleep.  We'll have to see if we follow through to the downside some more tomorrow.  That would be a plus for my put positions but the market would really have to move lower to make a difference.  Not a lot of market moving data due out.  Gold still has to visit the $1240 level in my opinion.  We haven't gotten there yet.  No love for gold right now and there hasn't been for quite some time.  The positive seasonal bullishness for gold did not materialize this year.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the Dow lower and take it from there.

A mixed bag to begin the week as the Dow fell 26 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The NASDAQ showed a gain on the session and that's bullish.  The small stocks are out performing and that is not a negative sign.  The summation index is trending sideways at the moment.  Not a lot of economic reports due out this week.  Retail sales on Friday being the biggest.  GE was off a couple pennies and the volume was light.  Light volume is the general theme for the market right now.  Gold continued to move lower.  The precious metal futures fell around $13.  The US dollar continues to move higher and that is bearish for gold.  The XAU lost 2 1/2.  ABX off 3/8, while GG and NEM dropped 2/3.  Volume is good to the downside for the gold shares.  Although my ABX call trade goes out to October, it is practically worthless.  Another loser trading the gold shares this year.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Although the market sold off a bit today, there always seems to be plenty of buyers on the sidelines.  We've been sideways for about two weeks but at this rate it appears that we will eventually break out to the upside.  That is what the small stocks are saying.  Perhaps tomorrows AAPL product announcement will be the catalyst for higher prices.  Technically on the major stock indices the short term technicals have started to roll over.  Gold is headed to $1240 and we'll see what happens when it gets there.  The US dollar is overbought, staying there and now moving up in a straight line.  That won't last forever but the trend is up until proven otherwise.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and see what happens tomorrow.

Today we got a one day reversal back to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The Dow gained 67 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were just shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The employment numbers came in light and the market sold off in the morning.  However buyers once again stepped in and the market climbed higher the rest of the session.  My September OEX puts are just about dead, as are the rest of my open option positions.  Terrible risk management or should I say none whatsoever.  But I will say this.  The volume on this particular upswing has been horrible.  It won't end well.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  The short term technicals here are trying to head back to the upside.  Gold was flat on the futures, as was the US dollar.  The XAU was up 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with fractional moves.  Volume was about average for what we have seen lately.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit down.  The steep losses that I'm about to take are the reason.  Once again I am going to have to take a step back and implement some strict trading rules.  There is no one to blame but myself.  When the summation index turned around, that is when I should have exited the OEX put trades.  When the dollar broke above the 81.50 level, that was the time to forget about and long gold share trades.  But once again I sometimes get emotionally involved in the trades, as if I have to get them all correct.  That, as we all know, is never going to happen.  So it's back to the drawing board again.  The summation index is still trending higher.  The short term technicals for the stock indices are still overbought but they have been now for three weeks.  The TRAN continues to make new highs and that is bullish.  Gold broke down this week and the next support is at the $1240 level.  The weakness in the gold shares this week doesn't bode well for higher prices anytime soon.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual and deciding my next trading move.  I obviously need to make some specific changes in my trading tactics because what I have tried so far this year simply isn't working.  But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A minor one day reversal in the Dow as it opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index lost 8 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  We did come up from the lows of the session.  The TRAN did make it to new all time high territory and that is bullish.  However the good news of lower rates overseas didn't see the market take off to the upside.  Tomorrows employment report will set the tone for Fridays trading.  I do not know what to expect.  As always, the reaction to the numbers will be key.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was average for lately.  Gold was off $4 and that much again in the aftermarket as the US dollar took off on the European rate news.  The dollar rose almost a full point in the currency market. The XAU dropped 3 1/3 and has now broken down out of the consolidation zone.  ABX, GG and NEM all fell 3/4 on good volume.  The October ABX call trade is now dead.  The strength in the dollar has finally taken effect.  The seasonal pattern for gold and the gold shares did not pan out this year.  The gold shares are leading the way lower and that is not bullish.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we will have to see if this is the start of an actual decline for the stock indices or simply another buying opportunity.  My only hope for the September OEX put trades that I'm holding is that some type of decline has begun.  However one day doesn't make a trend.  I'm thinking that the significant rise in the US dollar will impact the profits of the big multi-national corporations at some point.  If and when the market starts to factor that in would lead to some weakness.  That my theory at the moment.  Gold can find no buyers.  The fundamentals right now don't favor gold but that has been the case for quite some time.  The weakness in the gold shares doesn't bode well going forward.  Unless there is a dramatic turnaround for gold in the near future, the trend is down and who knows by how much?  We'll see how the European markets do overnight and wait for the US employment report tomorrow.

The Dow gained 10 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative again.  Just marking time here again as the stock market continues a low volume pattern.  The NASDAQ was much lower today and that is not bullish.  However that may have simply been a factor of APPL taking a dive.  The summation index continues higher.  Waiting for a catalyst one way or the other for the stock indices.  GE was up a dime and the volume was light.  Nothing has changed here as well.  Gold stabilized with a $5 gain as the US dollar was lower for a change.  The XAU lost 1/2 though.  ABX, GG and NEM were off fractionally or unchanged on the session.  Volume slacked off from yesterday.  The trend here is down now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Perhaps the employment report on Friday will get things going for the stock indexes.  Despite the return of the major players, trading remains lackluster.  That isn't really a good sign but things can change rather quickly in this game.  We will just have to wait and see what happens.  My option positions all remain losers.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets tonight and take it from there.

The Dow fell 30 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The market sold off during the session but made most of it back.  It is a market that wants to go higher.  The summation index continues to the upside.  The small stocks outperformed and that is bullish.  The TRAN had a strong session and that bodes well for higher prices.  My over leveraged September OEX put trade is getting crushed.  I suppose I'll give it until the employment report on Friday.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  GE came off of its lows as well.  Gold broke down today as support at $1275 did not hold.  The precious metal futures were down over $20.  The US dollar made another new high for the year.  The XAU fell 3 1/2.  ABX off 1/2, GG lost 1 1/3 and NEM shed 2/3.  Volume was good to the downside for the gold shares and that is not bullish.  The positive seasonal pattern has not shown up this year.  With all the geopolitical turmoil in the world, gold cannot even rally.  That bodes ill for the bulls.  My October ABX calls are losers.  Another failed trade so far.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I expect that the stock market will be heading higher tomorrow as it tried to sell off today but barely did.  There is plenty of money coming from somewhere.  Still overbought but not as much as it was.  GE has moved lower than the overall market recently but it hasn't meant anything yet.  Gold should continue down to the $1240 level.  We'll have to see what happens when it gets there.  The gold share indices are on the verge of breaking down from their 2 1/2 month consolidation.  All of my option positions are heavy losers and it looks like I'll have to book the losses soon.  We'll follow the overnight action and see what tomorrow brings.

A pop in the last hour pushed the Dow to a gain of 18 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were a little over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Next week all the players will return and we will see which way things go.  Right now everything is pointing to higher prices.  The overall market is much stronger than the Dow.  The advance/decline line continues to make new highs.  My over leveraged September put position is a big loser.  Three weeks to go in the September option cycle.  GE was barely changed and the volume was light.  These September puts that I own are big losers too.  Gold was off a few bucks as the US dollar continued to climb higher.  The XAU was up 1 1/4 as the gold shares out performed the precious metal once again.  That is a bullish sign but with the strength in the dollar, I can't really see any big gains for gold coming.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains again on light volume.  My October ABX calls are losers, joining the rest of my recent poor trades.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We closed out the month with gains and the normal pattern of weakness in the market for this time period is not showing up yet again.  The near term technicals point to even higher prices coming.  I'll probably hold onto my September options until the employment report next Friday.  But unless we see a dramatic turnaround in equities next week, these trades will be losers.  There hasn't been a catalyst for gold and silver despite the continuing geopolitical turmoil.  I don't know what it is going to take to get this market going.  The positive seasonal influence is not happening here as well.  That trade goes out to October, so it still has time to turn positive.  But at the rate things are going there, it will probably just be another loser.  I'll be checking the charts over the long weekend and keeping an eye out on any news that may affect the markets.  For now it's the unofficial last weekend of summer and time for a break.

Another day of watching paint dry as the Dow fell 42 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We sold off fast early and spent the rest of the session coming back.  Buyers arrived on the dip.  The volume is so light here that this will simply be a lost summer week.  Tomorrow should be just as lackluster.  GE was off 1/8 and volume was very light.  Nothing new to report.  Gold found a bid on the futures as they rose seven bucks.  The US dollar was flat on the day.  ABX, GG and NEM all had minor fractional gains on light volume.  Waiting for a catalyst here as well and the summer doldrums continue.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We will have to see what kind of mood the traders are in after this weekend.  The summation index continues higher.  We worked off some of the markets overbought condition today.  Right now I'm expecting a positive start to next week.  What happens after that will be the key to my September put trades.  They are all pretty big losers now.  Gold found some buyers at the $1275 level but it certainly isn't convincing.  However gold has held up OK despite a decent break out to the upside in the US dollar.  That is encouraging to the bulls.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

The middle of the week and we are simply marking time here.  The Dow gained 15 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  Nothing has changed from yesterday.  Time premium is being sucked out of any open option positions.  I would expect a quiet rest of this week.  The summation index continues higher.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was light.  Keep an eye on GE.  Gold lost a buck or so and the US dollar was lower for a change.  We are in a holding pattern now for gold as well.  The XAU was off 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM were all little changed on light volume.  Nothing new to report.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm holding on to losing positions and waiting for next week to begin.  It is a lousy strategy but it is all I can do at the moment.  Unless I want to close out with major losses.  Over leveraged to the downside and that was the wrong thing to do.  We'll watch what happens overnight but I would expect more of the summer doldrums for now.

Nothing but good news from the economic numbers today and that helped the Dow to a gain of about 30 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  No overhead resistance for the major stock indices and daily new all time prices are the norm.  I should have not tried the September OEX put trades but hindsight is always correct.  GE was off almost 20 cents and the volume slightly picked up.  If GE is the leader once again we should start to see some weakness in the indexes.  Hasn't happened yet.  Gold found a bid today as the precious metal futures rose six bucks.  The US dollar was up yet again.  The XAU gained 2 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  Still waiting on the positive seasonal factors for gold to kick in.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Slow volume continues as we reach the end of summer.  This week is playing out as expected with a move higher to begin the week.  I don't see any bumps in the road yet for this rally.  I'm just hanging on to the losing positions that I own and waiting for next week.  Without a doubt overbought here for the stock indices.  But the market can sometimes stay overbought for long periods of time and we have yet to see any sellers arrive on scene.  Gold is hanging in there so far this week.  However the fundamentals right now are not bullish.  Plenty of time still left on the ABX call trade though.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign action overnight and take it from there.

More of the same as the Dow gained 75 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  Overbought, staying that way and bullishness remains.  There are no sellers.  It's the last week of summer so I would not expect much action.  My over leveraged September puts are losing money.  This idea is a disaster so far.  I don't know what it will take to turn things around.  At some point, I will have to swallow the loss.  GE was up a nickel and the volume was light.  My September GE puts are losers as well.  Nothing new to report here.  Gold was off a bit on the futures while the US dollar continued higher.  There is no resistance for the dollar here and that is not good news for the gold bulls.  The XAU lost 1 1/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  My October ABX calls are losing as well, keeping with the theme of poor trades at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Some economic data out this week.  However the major players are still out for the summer.  We should get things going next week.  Unfortunately this week will suck out some more of the time premium in the option positions.  It is basically a period to sit and wait.  The short term technicals for the stock indices are very overbought.  The medium term indicators are overbought as well.  I do expect some near term pull back but it hasn't happened yet.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

A mixed bag to close out the week as the Dow shed 38 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The small stocks were up on the session and that's bullish going forward.  The summation index continues to rise.  All signs are still pointing to higher prices for stocks despite the overbought condition on the indices.  I'm still over leveraged and holding on to the September OEX puts.  Four weeks remaining for this trade and I've decided to give it another week.  Unfortunately, the major players are still out until Labor day.  This trade is showing a decent loss at the moment.  GE was off 1/4 on light volume.  One day doesn't make a trend.  However there is a possibility that GE is rolling over here.  That would bode well for the September OEX put trades that I have.  The September GE puts that I own are pretty good losers.  Gold was up about five bucks on the futures and made it back to $1280.  It is on the precipice of major trouble though if this level is severely breached.  The US dollar was higher today as well.  The trend is clearly up for the greenback.  The XAU was off 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all dropped 1/4 on light volume.  These shares are still in their consolidation channels but at the bottom of them.  Next week could be the key and all signals appear to point to lower prices.  My October ABX calls have lost half of their value.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One more week of summer and then I would expect volume to perk up along with volatility.  But who knows?  The past couple of years has seen the beginning of September with nice gains for the stock indexes.  Perhaps it will be three years in a row.  I've decided my course of action and it is to be positioned for a decline.  It appears that this OEX put idea will either make or break my trading year.  No one trade should determine that but it is what it is.  The market will go where it wants.  Overbought, staying there and very light volume any way you slice it.  Gold is oversold as are the gold shares but not completely.  I've commented at length on the favorable seasonal time period for gold.  We are now in it and haven't seen any kind of sustained upside for gold.  There is still time for that to happen but it certainly is late.  As usual I'll be checking the charts out over the weekend.  My thinking right now is that next week will be more of the same.  Quiet, summer like trading with a bias to the upside.  But anything can happen in this game.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Still moving basically straight up as the Dow gained 60 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The S&P 500 hit a new all time high today.  Overbought and staying that way.  I'm still over leveraged in the September OEX puts.  This idea has done nothing but fail since I started taking positions.  At the rate the market is going, it will be one of my biggest losers.  There is nothing to suggest that the stock market is going to head lower.  Still over four weeks left in this option cycle but the main players won't return until after Labor day.  The things that I thought would cause lower prices are not happening.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was light.  The September puts that I have here are nearly worthless.  Another failed trade for now.  Gold finally got whacked as the futures fell about $20.  We are now below the important $1280 level.  We will have to see how the week closes out tomorrow.  The US dollar was slightly lower today.  The XAU was off 2 1/8.  ABX shed 1/4,   GG down 1/8 and NEM lost 7/8.  Volume picked up to the downside and that is not a good sign for the bulls.  The gold shares haven't broken down out of the nearly two month consolidation yet.  But they do appear to be on the verge of doing so.  I'm still holding on to the October ABX calls although they have lost half of what I paid for them.  My thinking is that sooner or later the positive seasonal factors will kick in.  Looks like later if at all.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, not enough sleep and dental problems.  Stocks are very overbought and I am leveraged to the downside.  This is not a good place to be.  My thinking has been atrocious and my trading tactics have been wrong.  The market does not care.  Perhaps I am just too stubborn in my attempts to trade here.  With the summation index continuing to the upside, the only smart play is to be long.  As always, I will pay for my errors.  Gold broke down today and it appears poised to head even lower.  The gold shares are out performing but in this environment it only means they aren't going down as far.  There are still a couple of months for the ABX trade to work but at this rate it won't.  When everything is going wrong perhaps it is best to take a step back.  I'll consider this overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

And the beat goes on.  The Dow rose 59 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The Dow was stronger than the overall market and that usually isn't bullish.  However the way things have been going lately, that may not matter.  It seems as though there are no sellers.  The summation index continues to the upside.  I did move up to a closer to the money strike price on the September OEX puts but I did not yet sell the other puts that I already own.  This increases the leverage and the risk.  I should sell the earlier position tomorrow to be on the safe side.  If their is anything safe about trading options.  The major stock indices appear poised to hit new all time highs.  I'm still not a believer in light volume rallies but perhaps I am wrong.  GE is leading the way and gained 1/3 today on OK volume.  GE led the way down and is now leading the way back up.  It is something to keep an eye on.  Gold was off another couple of bucks on the futures but the US dollar had another strong session.  The dollar has broken trough some long term resistance and the trend is up.  The XAU was up 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM were all little changed on light volume.  Considering the move in the dollar, the gold shares held up pretty good.  Not exactly sure what to make of that.  The October ABX calls that I have are still showing a loss.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  All signs point to higher stock prices at this juncture.  The Fed minutes today provided a temporary dip but it didn't last long.  Declines can be bought.  Then why try the OEX puts here?  We are short term overbought.  The second year of the presidents term usually has a decent decline at some point and we haven't seen anything like that yet.  The rally from the recent lows is on very weak volume.  There is plenty of time in the September option cycle for this trade to work.  Gold is still going nowhere.  It is a surprise that we haven't seen some kind of actual decline there.  Perhaps the seasonal positive tendency will prevail.  We'll see if the European markets can get headed back to the upside tonight. 

Another strong day to the upside as the Dow gained 80 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The small stocks are doing good too.  I tried to move to a closer strike price again on the September OEX puts but my order wasn't filled.  I'm prepared to take yet another loss on the existing trade if I can get the closer to the money puts.  I am still a believer in this idea because the volume on this rally has been pretty anemic.  However that could just be a summer phenomena.  Time will tell on that.  GE was flat on the day, volume extremely light.  This September put trade has lost about half of its value.  It may be time to pull the plug.  Gold lost a couple bucks on the futures today.  The US dollar broke above its recent consolidation to the upside.  This isn't bullish for gold but gold is somehow hanging in there without a decline.  SO far that is.  The XAU was off 7/8.  ABX and GG had slight fractional losses, while NEM was flat.  Volume was light once again.  My October ABX calls are still showing a loss.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit drained, had a tooth pulled today.  It appears that the major stock indices are poised to hit new all time highs.  My idea for the September puts has failed pretty badly so far.  I'll probably try to get to a close strike price tomorrow and if that doesn't happen I'll simply stand pat with what I've got.  Short term overbought now for the stock indexes.  Gold is going nowhere fast and silver just keeps going down.  With a rising US dollar, things are not looking good from the long side of the precious metal complex.  Perhaps all my thinking is just wrong at the moment.  It's possible.  I'll consider what to do overnight.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the Dow higher and get ready for Wednesday.

The market screamed to the upside today as the Dow gained 175 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  Some small stock indices are hitting new recovery highs and that is bullish leading the market here.  Getting short term overbought for the major stock indices.  The trend is now up though.  My September OEX puts are now losers.  The question is whether or not to hold them for now or just take the loss.  The stock indexes act like they want to go to new all time highs.  I'll probably wait to see how the rest of the week shapes up.  But this trade is not acting well.  GE was up 3/8 on summer average volume.  GE got above its 200 day moving average today.  My September puts here are losers as well.  Short term overbought here on the technicals.  We closed on the high of the day as did some of the major averages.  Gold fell around seven bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU managed a 1/2 point gain.  ABX, GG and NEM all finished the day close to unchanged.  The volume was very light.  There is no interest in gold or the gold shares at the moment.  My October ABX calls are showing a slight loss.  I'll hold these as long as gold does not break below the trading range that it has traveled over the past two months.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  My idea for the September index puts is not looking good at the moment.  With the small stocks leading the way here, we could be in for a decent rally.  Not a lot of economic data out this week.  It's possible we could find ourselves in the summer doldrums after todays huge upside move.  But that's a guess as usual.  The only thing that the September OEX put trade has going for it now is the extra week in the option cycle.  Still waiting for the positive seasonal factors to kick in for gold.  Over halfway through August now and we have yet to see any kind of sustained rally.  The gold shares are holding up for now.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and go from there.

An interesting day to be sure as the Dow fell 50 points on a bit better volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  The NASDAQ registered a gain on the day and that is bullish.  The market had a gap to the upside to start the session but an hour or so later news from the Ukraine sent the stock indices lower.  The rest of the day was spent recovering from that sell off.  The summation index is moving higher and the stock market has all the signs of wanting to move higher.  Volatility picked up today.  My September OEX puts are about at what I paid for them.  This trade has plenty of time to work but the market isn't acting bearish at the moment.  It is acting quite bullish and perhaps this idea is simply wrong.  GE fell 1/4 and volume picked up a little just like the overall market.  The September puts that I own here are break even.  The gold futures fell almost $10 today despite the trouble in the Ukraine.  Silver got walloped as well and that is not good news for the precious metals complex if you are long.  The US dollar was a bit weaker as well.  The XAU was off by 2/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  The October ABX calls that I have are slightly positive.  If gold can't rally on todays news, I don't know what it will take to get things going higher.  The positive seasonal factors haven't taken hold yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A positive week for the major stock indexes but the volume was pretty light.  Perhaps the next two weeks will be more of the same with regards to volume.  The major players are still out for the summer.  Maybe I was too quick in taking the September options positions.  The market appears to want to go higher despite the loss for the Dow today.  I guess a lot depends on what happens in the Ukraine over the weekend.  The short term technicals have worked back up from the oversold condition but are not overbought yet.  I think that gold really needs silver to stop going down to get any kind of sustained rally going.  The silver chart looks ugly if you're bullish.  The CRB has also been heading almost straight down for almost a month and a half.  It appears obvious that despite all the money that has been thrown around, inflation is not a concern at the moment.  That isn't bullish for gold.  But as usual, anything can happen in this game.  I'll be checking out the charts and the headlines over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The upward push of the market continues as the Dow gained 61 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The S&P 500 is right at the 1955 level and also poised at its 50 day moving average.  The volume has been light all the way up and I think that this rally is not going to last.  However, the September OEX puts I bought yesterday have already lost 35% of their value, so I sold them today and took the loss.  I then repurchased some September OEX puts at a closer to the money strike price for less than what I paid for the options yesterday.  If the trade does work as expected, the loss taken today will more than be made up due to the closer to the money strike price of todays option purchase.  If the trade doesn't work, it will amount to about the same loss that holding onto the September puts that I sold for a loss today would have had.  The stock indices closed at their highs today which is bullish.  Plus the small stocks are leading the way.  So perhaps my idea of getting some index puts is completely wrong.  The summation index is heading higher now as well.  GE was up a nickel and the volume was light.  The September puts I own here are showing a small loss.  Gold was flat on the session as was the US dollar.  These markets are in a summer doldrums pattern for this week so far.  The XAU fell 1 1/4.  ABX and NEM were flat, while GG fell 1/4.  Volume was pretty light.  Nothing new to report here as we wait for the next catalyst.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll close out option expiration week tomorrow.  We are in a light volume rally so far this week.  Light volume rallies cannot be trusted.  I do still believe that we will soon be rolling over and that we will also be taking out the recent lows in the major stock indices.  I could be wrong and often am.  The gold market is going nowhere at the moment.  Patience is required but we are going to move pretty good one way or the other soon.  The Bollinger bands on the daily chart are telegraphing that.  So we'll see.  As always we'll watch the overseas overnight action and take it from there.

Back to the upside today as the Dow climbed 91 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive.  Today should turn the summation index up.  I bought the September OEX puts today.  The scenario of a light volume rally after the initial drop is playing out as hoped for.  However my entry today was rushed and I could have gotten a better price on the options.  I still think this is the proper trade unless we continue to move higher past the 1955 level on the S&P 500.  So we'll see what happens.  GE was up almost 1/4 and the volume was light.  The September puts that I have here are now at break even.  It's a good idea to keep an eye on GE here as well for clues to the overall market direction.  Gold was up a bit on the futures and the US dollar was a little higher as well.  The XAU was flat on the session.  ABX was off 1/8,  GG rose 3/8 and NEM was flat on the day.  Still waiting for gold and the gold shares to break higher.  Short term overbought for now here.  My October calls for ABX are still in the black but not by as much as before.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated with myself on the September OEX put entry.  I should have let the trade come to me but I got anxious.  There is nobody to blame here but myself.  Hopefully I'll do better on the exit.  Plenty of time for this trade to work.  Building a top here on the stock indexes would be the preferred price action.  However as always, the market will go where it wants.  Over five weeks to go in the September option cycle.  Gold remains in a trading range.  Hopefully the favorable seasonal pattern kicks in at some point this month.  August expiration is on Friday.  So we'll keep an eye on the foreign markets overnight and see what transpires.

Digestion of the recent gains as the Dow fell 9 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index has started to move sideways.  I'm trying to remain patient here but I don't want to be late for the September OEX puts.  The timing for purchase looks like it will be tough as usual.  The ideal scenario would be a nice up move tomorrow in the stock indices.  But the market rarely cooperates.  Trading the index options requires even more finesse than individual issues in my opinion.  Hopefully the upside expiration week bias will continue.  Another short squeeze would be good for the cause but that remains to be seen.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume was very light.  The September puts that I own here are slightly in the black.  Gold was little changed on the session but did come off of its highs.  Ditto for the US dollar.  The XAU rose 1 3/8.  ABX, GG and NEM were all higher by 1/2 or so.  Volume was good for the summer.  The October ABX calls that I have are in the black.  Plenty of time to go here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got a bounce from the oversold levels of the major stock indices and now we are waiting for the next catalyst.  Perhaps the retail sales data tomorrow will provide some direction.  Maybe if we can get some rally from the overseas markets it will propel the US stock indexes higher.  For now we're more oversold than overbought short term.  Just waiting to buy some September index puts at this point.  Gold is on hold but the daily Bollinger bands are starting to get closer, which implies some movement coming in the near future.  The gold shares are out performing now and that is a positive.  However silver is not moving higher with gold and remains oversold.  The best situation would be to get those two rising in tandem.  We can hope but hope has no place in trading.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight price action and see what tomorrow brings.

Higher today but not by much for the Dow as it gained 16 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Getting a decent move up for now as today could turn around the summation index.  I'm still a believer in the September OEX puts though.  I plan on getting them this week on more strength if we see any as the week progresses.  The ideal scenario in my mind would to get to the 1950 level on the S&P 500.  We'll have to see how the week plays out.  GE was up 1/8 on summer average volume.  We did get to the $26 level today and I did get some September GE puts when we got there.  Plenty of time for this trade to work and it fits in with my bearish prognosis.  Gold didn't do much today and neither did the US dollar.  The XAU managed a gain of 1 1/8.  ABX was flat, while GG and NEM had fractional gains.  Volume was light.  The October ABX calls that I have are slightly in the black.  Holding on for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm going to try and be patient when attempting to get the September OEX puts this week.  But I don't want to be late either.  It is a tough game to play.  Of course I could be wrong in my thinking and the stock indices simply rally from here.  However I am looking for more downside as the summer ends and we roll into September.  The short term technicals are still oversold for the major stock indices.  On thing in the bulls favor though is the out performance recently of the small stocks.  So it is a difficult call to make one way or the other.  Gold has been lacking a trend for a month.  We are in a good seasonal period but that doesn't always mean a rally will be coming.  At least today the gold shares found some buyers but it wasn't a huge move.  The foreign stock markets have started to bounce so perhaps the US stock indexes will keep pace.  There should be an opportunity this week to get set up in the September puts, hopefully.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and go from there.

We finally got a rally today as the Dow soared 185 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The McClellan oscillator is heading back towards the zero line.  Can it make it through there is the question.  In negative markets the rallies come quick out of nowhere.  Today qualifies for that.  The light volume also is telling.  I'll look for a 50% retracement of this decline to purchase some September OEX puts.  This may or may not be the proper outlook going forward but it is the idea at the moment.  Perhaps there will be a positive bias for expiration week.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was light here as well.  If we make it back to 26 or close to it, I'll try the September puts here as well.  Holding onto the 50 week moving average for now.  Gold was off a touch on the futures as the US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU rose 1/8 but finished well off of the highs.  ABX and NEM were up 1/4, while GG fell 1/4.  Volume was light.  My October ABX calls are now slightly in the black.  Gold had a positive week but we'll need to see it build on that to really get bullish.  I get the feeling it could be just sideways action coming up.  But what do I know?  My guesses haven't been all that good lately.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The major stock indices managed a decent bounce today.  The markets were very oversold and due for something to the upside.  It has all the looks of short covering to me.  I certainly hope it continues next week because I am still a believer in the September put idea.  But anything can happen in this game.  There is an extra week in the September option cycle and that will add to the cost of trying September trades.  Gold and silver have gone opposite ways of late and that isn't really bullish.  Gold is now short term overbought with silver just the opposite.  It would be much more bullish if they rose in tandem.  The gold shares remain in a trading range.  Plenty of time for the October calls to work here but it may take a while to really get going.  And they could get going in either direction as well.  So on it goes.  I'll be checking signs from the various media outlets to see the reaction to todays positive market action.  The ideal scenario for the bearish cause would be an indication that all is well.  There's plenty of charts to check over the weekend.  However the game plan for the September puts remains the same.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Lower we go as the Dow fell 75 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were just slightly negative though.  The summation index continues lower.  Will we ever get a decent bounce to get short is now the question.  But everybody is waiting for the same thing it seems.  Oversold and staying there for the major stock indices.  That could be dangerous.  Caution is still advised in my book because I think we have a lot further to go on the downside.  I could be wrong.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was average.  GE hasn't led things higher near term.  I'm now considering some September GE puts since the OEX puts have gotten very expensive.  Just a thought for now.  GE is holding at its 50 week moving average.  The gold futures rose around five bucks as the US dollar gained back what it lost yesterday.  The XAU was flat on the session.  ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional gains on light volume.  My October ABX calls are slightly in the red.  Nothing to do but hold on here for this trade.  Plenty of time and the favorable seasonal factors hopefully kick in for gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Everyone knows now that the trend is down.  I don't see any sustainable rallies in the near future.  Simply waiting to get some puts on something.  Option expiration week is coming up.  Will the usual positive bias show up?  The McClellan oscillator remains in negative territory and the positive divergence there earlier in the week did not pan out.  Gold has had a bounce this week but it hardly qualifies for an uptrend.  Ditto for the gold shares, which still have yet to break out from their recent consolidation.  Volume was anemic today in this complex.  We'll close out the week and it is anybodies guess what will happen tomorrow.  The European markets have been very weak as of late and that is probably weighing on the US.  So we'll see.

A waiting game today as the Dow rose 14 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We did not continue lower today and that is a positive for the bulls.  I did place an order this morning for the August OEX calls but canceled it later in the session.  I still think that this trade could work and may try again tomorrow.  The summation index continues lower.  Only seven days left in the August option cycle, so any trade will have to be short term in nature.  I still like the September OEX puts on a relatively longer term basis.  GE was up 3/8 and the volume was good.  GE led the way down so it figures to now lead the way back up.  It is another reason to potentially try the August OEX call trade.  Gold rallied today as the futures rose over $20.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU gained 2 points.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on better volume.  My October ABX calls are now slightly in the red.  Perhaps this is the beginning of a leg up in gold.  Time will tell on that.  The volume on the gold shares was good and that is bullish.  The US dollar is also at resistance so perhaps it will be turned back down here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  To trade or not to trade here is the question at the moment.  The risk is elevated since the time is running out for the August cycle.  There is a positive divergence on the McClellan oscillator.  The short term technicals are oversold for the major stock indices.  So maybe I'll try the calls tomorrow.  The gold shares acted better today but one day doesn't make a trend.  There has been very little of the summer doldrums so far this year.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight as usual and see what tomorrow brings.

So much for a quiet week.  The Dow fell 140 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues to decline.  The market needs to hold in here or it will really get ugly.  I think that we will hold up for now.  If I had any guts, I would buy some August OEX calls tomorrow for a short term trade.  But the better idea in my mind is to get some September puts if we see some strength.  The short term technicals are oversold and staying there.  Let's remember that markets go down a lot faster than they go up.  If we see a rally, short it.  If we don't, then it is too late.  GE lost 1/4 and the volume was OK.  Keep an eye on GE.  It is oversold both short and medium term.  It needs to hold in here.  Gold was off a few bucks today as the US dollar closed above the 81.50 level.  Perhaps the dollar will continue to rally on the flight to safety trade now that it has gotten above resistance.  That would not be good for gold.  The XAU managed a 3/4 gain.  ABX was flat, while GG and NEM had fractional gains.  Volume was light.  No interest in the gold shares but at least they didn't decline with the overall market.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Interesting times I must say.  If we don't see some positive action soon, the market will fall apart.  This isn't something that can usually happen but we are getting closer to the zero line in the summation index.  There is a chance that it could occur and that is yet another reason to purchase some OEX September puts.  I do not know if the market will give me a chance to buy them though.  As for the short term, we got the bounce on Monday and today was not positive.  The McClellan oscillator remains very negative and should bounce higher than it has.  I probably won't try the August OEX calls tomorrow.  Make no mistake, the trend is down.  Gold came back a bit in the aftermarket but is simply grinding its way lower.  The gold shares have been moving sideways for almost two months.  It looks like they want to break down.  That would not bode well for my October ABX calls.  They are still in the red.  We'll see how the overseas markets react to todays negative session and go from there.

Bounce expected and it arrived on cue.  The Dow rose 75 points on summer average volume.  The advance/declines were less than 2 to 1 positive.  If you were good enough, you could have gotten the August OEX calls at around 8AM and sold them for a nice profit before the close.  I, as has been the case lately, wasn't quick enough.  We'll have to see how far this bounce goes but the summation index is still heading lower.  I'm going to have to focus on the OEX September puts and maybe leave it at that.  The short term technicals for the major stock indices remain oversold.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was average.  No trades in GE for now but I still am considering the idea for the calls of early next year.  Plenty of time to purchase though.  Gold was off over $5 on the futures.  The US dollar didn't move much today.  The XAU lost around 1 1/8.  ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM rose 3/8.  Volume was good for NEM, light for the others.  My October ABX calls remain in the red.  There was some major volume in the October option cycle for ABX.  The 18 strike price had over 10000 contracts traded on both sides.  The 19 strike price had over 20000 contracts traded on the call side.  I don't know what to make of it but somebody is betting big here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK considering I just missed another trading opportunity.  At least the idea worked, even if I didn't make any money off of it.  I'm a believer that rallies can be shorted now.  I'll be looking for an entry point on the September OEX puts.  Of course as always I could be wrong here and the decline has run its course.  But I'm not really thinking that will be the case.  Gold is hanging around its 50 and 200 day moving average.  The gold shares have under performed near term and that isn't bullish.  The short term technicals for the gold shares are oversold though.  Plenty of time for the October call trade to work.  Seasonal factors are in the positive camp as well.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets overnight and go from there.  Not a lot of economic data out this week so it may get quiet.

Trying to stabilize today as the Dow fell 70 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were less than 2 to 1 negative.  The employment report came in a bit less than expected but the technicals are what we need to keep an eye on for now.  The summation index is heading lower.  Blown out to the downside on the indicators here.  A decent bounce is the next expectation.  Will it be worth the risk to trade it?  Maybe.  Two weeks to go in the August option cycle.  However a bounce is all it should be as uptrend lines have been violated and the nature of the game has changed for now.  GE turned around and was higher by 20 cents on good volume.  GE led the way down and now is giving a clue as to what to expect next in the near term.  Gold recouped $12 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower today.  The XAU was up about 2/3.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional gains on summer average volume.  The technicals here for the gold shares are mixed.  My October ABX calls are still slightly in the red.  I guess I'll hold on to them for now.  I'm viewing the past month here as a consolidation from the rise in June.  If that is correct, we should once again move higher in the weeks to come.  I could be wrong.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Quite a week as we saw the first major daily decline in a while.  I think that there will be more to come.  Let us not forget the January weakness and what that usually means for the market.  But in the near term, I'll consider getting some August OEX calls on Monday for a bounce next week.  It's risky but the rise in GE today combined with very oversold short term conditions may make it a good idea.  We'll see.  I really don't see any catalysts for the price of gold one way or the other.  Perhaps the rise in the US dollar will stall out here at the 81.50 level.  The Bollinger bands are starting to contract on the weekly gold chart, so a big move will eventually be coming there.  No doubt before the October ABX calls that I now have expire.  Which way gold goes is the question but we are in a favorable seasonal period there.  Plenty of charts and things to consider over this weekend.  But for now it is Friday afternoon and time for a break.