The Dow was up a little over 40 points today after the Fed raised the funds rate another quarter point. Advance/declines over 2 to 1 positive and the volume was nothing special. No clear signal here. Gold rallied over 3 bucks and the XAU started to move. It was up over 3 points and has broken out above 95. I am trying the breakout with ABX. I had an order in for some calls and it wasn't getting filled. I tried to cancel the order near the close, since I was going to put in another order at the ask in order to get filled. The order wouldn't cancel so I placed the other order, which got filled. To my surprise the original order at a lower price also somehow got filled a minute before I placed the higher priced order. How or why this happened I do not know. But now I hold twice as many calls as I wanted. Has this happened before? Yes. The disastrous GE trade at the beginning of the year. Now here the XAU is breaking out in my opinion. I think this trade has a good chance to work. But you never know in this game and I really should put in some stop-loss orders tomorrow. Or dump half of this position to get back to the original commitment of this trade. NEM was up but not as much as usual. I think it's due to the downgrade of last friday. That's why I decided on ABX at this time. I figure less money will be flowing to NEM this time and that leaves more to head the way of ABX. Just a guess though but what isn't? Gotta run...

The Dow was off 80 points today. Advance/declines were negative but not as bad as a market down 80. Volume was light. The SPX was only down 6 points, so it wasn't what I would call a broad move down. Make no mistake, I would like to get some puts here but I will not chase the move. Fed meets tomorrow. Gold was down a little, the XAU was up almost a point and NEM was up fractionally. I want to get long NEM but will wait for it to get to the uptrend line. It is just about there. GE didn't do much today but did not decline with the rest of the market. We are in a weak seasonal period. However the technicals are not all that overbought. I will try to be patient. I think there will be a terrorist act on our soil before the election. I would like to have some gold calls for that. Or some OEX puts. The timing is everything as it always is. Would not mind taking a chance in October. Reality is that I've got to pay attention and put in the effort and work. Perhaps then good things will happen. I'll try my best...

Option expiration was pretty uneventful as has been the case with the overall market lately. Dow up 40 points with advances slightly ahead of declines. Volume a little heavier than we've seen. Gold barely moved. The XAU was down less than a point. The news was in NEM. It was downgraded today by some Wall Street firm and lost a buck and a quarter on very heavy volume. ABX was off a fraction. Do I get long NEM? Yes, but not yet. Perhaps next week but it will depend on the action. Fed meeting on tuesday. We shall see. If the XAU can hold above 91 then I am getting long NEM for sure. If not then all trades are off for the long side. Would like to get some October OEX puts at some point soon. Will have to check the charts this weekend and get back here on monday.

Another blah day in the market. Dow up 13 points on the usual light volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. Market was higher on good inflation data then just drifted off for the rest of the day. Gold was off a little and so were NEM and ABX. I'm looking for some kind of trade but don't see anything worthwhile at this point. Perhaps after the Fed on tuesday there will be some kind of signal or direction. The dollar was weaker and gold couldn't move higher on that. Not a good sign for the longs. Internals of the overall market are solid yet no move higher is puzzling. Perhaps it is expiration related. I'm on the sidelines until next week for sure.

The Dow was down 86 points today. I suppose the OEX puts would have worked. But you really have to be quick and pay strict attention with the OEX. Volume was again light and the advance/declines were negative. 2 days before option expiration and I am definitely trying to stay on the sidelines. Gold did not move much today but the XAU was down over a point. ABX and NEM were also down a percent or so apiece. Volume there was light. I will check where the uptrend line is on NEM and get long when it gets there. That is the plan for now. GE backed off a bit and I have to check the charts on that one. Trading is a tough business. Lack of volatility, as we have been seeing lately, makes it even more difficult. I'm hanging in there, trying to stay positive in the face of losses and moving on. Where we go from here is anybodies guess but I'm still of the belief that another trip down in the market will occur. We shall see...

Not much in the way of movement today. Yeah, the Dow was up a little and down a little. Ended plus 3 points. Light volume, advance/declines about even. I'd like to get short but probably shouldn't. Gold was up a buck and a half. The XAU was up good, around 1 and 3/4. NEM was up as well as ABX. Could those gold trades have worked out if I had held on to them? Only time will tell but it would have been extremely risky to hold them. The gold stocks have moved up in the last week of expiration for the past few months. My timing on the buy was off and that killed those trades. I should have waited and now I am stuck here in no mans land. Might have to get some October calls then. Inflation data on Thursday could be a market mover and we have the Fed meeting next week. The lack of volume is not a good sign for strength in my opinion and perhaps we have to go down once more before we get a good rally. Just a guess. Futures are selling off a bit here and the dollar is a bit weaker...

The Dow was basically unchanged today, up a little over a point. Volume was nothing special and the advance/declines were positive. No economic news today and it is option expiration week. Gold was up a couple bucks with the XAU, NEM and ABX all showing small gains on lighter than average volume. The options I previously owned did nothing. Now for a losing recap. The ABX calls were a 75% loss and the NEM calls were a 62% loss. Ouch! I might go for some October calls if prices are right and a signal develops, which I think could happen. But who knows. The Bollinger bands are converging implying a big move is at hand. Which way it goes is another question. However other technical indicators are oversold so I am believing a move to the upside is imminent. With the OEX this week I hopefully will stay out of the picture. It's getting more overbought but it has been overbought for a while. Not much else to say. Moving on from losses as best I can. Trying to stay focused and look for the next opportunity. Not beating myself up for the latest debacle. Should use stop loss orders but that makes a little too much sense now, doesn't it?

The Dow was up 24 points today on light volume again. Advance/declines were positive. I still think this market wants to work higher. But that is not the story today. I took my lumps in gold today, closing out all my positions with major losses. At least 50% on each trade. Gold was up over $3 today and the XAU, NEM and ABX rallied early. As the day went on however the rally stalled. It wasn't a convincing move in my opinion and I noticed the volume was low. I hung on as long as I could but when things started to fade in the final hour I decided to just get out. The dollar was weak again and if that can't get a good rally going, nothing will. With only a week left I could not hold these any longer. Now next week could be great for gold but maybe not and I had already lost too much as it was. This trade along with the early GE blowout this year have really did me in. It seems whenever I take a larger than normal position it always backfires on me. Make a note of that. GE was up a little today and that was a trade that would have worked. I still might look at gold for October but am uncertain at this point. I'll check things over the weekend and take it from there I suppose. Losses are inevitable in the game however I must learn to limit them if I am ever going to make this work on a consistent basis. Am I getting closer to the mission? I sure hope so. But trades like these are steps backwards. Patience is something I just have got to get a hold of. Discipline is another.

It seems like a market that wants to go higher. The Dow was down 25 points but advance/declines were positive and the volume picked up. GE continues to gain ground. The SPX and the OEX were both higher also. Gold lost a dollar and the XAU, NEM and ABX were fractionally higher. The options are still losers. It would take a miracle at this point just to break even. The dollar was higher today. The trade number tomorrow will be the key between a small loss or a big one for these gold trades. They are already predicting a huge deficit, so if it comes in less than that it could be viewed as a positive when in reality it really isn't. Doesn't matter now, my timing was off and losses are the result. Gotta get out and move on unless gold rallies big tomorrow. Not much else to say at this point...

The Dow was off around 30 points on light volume again. Advance/declines were negative. There is a non conformation of yesterdays high on the McClellan oscillator. Would like to short strength tomorrow but I 'm all tied up in gold. Gold was up a couple bucks today but the XAU, NEM and ABX were all down on good volume. Not a good sign for the long side. The calls are all losing money and I am running out of time. These trades will be losers. That's the reality of it at this point. I'll still wait for friday but I don't think it will matter. My prognosis was simply wrong and when that happens, you'll lose money. The dollar was weaker today also and the gold stocks could not rally. So this is real trouble at this juncture. I'll have to try to cut the loss as best I can but it isn't looking good. Volume expanding on the downside and I am screwed. Oh well, back to the drawing board I guess. GE is still going higher and the calls there would have worked well at this point. But what can ya do? I'm stuck in gold and it's a loser...

20 minutes to go. The Dow is up around 60 points. Advance/declines are over 2 to 1 positive. The volume is light again. The convention is over, summer is over, there are no more excuses for light volume. We have touched the longer term downtrend line at 546 on the OEX. This is the moment of truth for the market. If we get through here, a longer rally will take place. I'd like to get short here but I am already committed to the gold trade. My NEM GTC order was filled this morning as gold was down again today, this time over 3 bucks. The XAU is holding up rather well, off a little over a point. NEM and ABX are both down but not much. However premium is being sucked out of the options and each show a loss. I will still wait for fridays trade number as that was the original plan. But it isn't looking good today. I still think this will work. Perhaps some OEX puts are in the plan, it depends on the market action in the next two days. Greenspan will speak tomorrow and that is usually a market mover. That's it for today, I must end early due to other commitments...

Well the employment number came and went. It was in line with expectations. The Dow ended up down 30 points on extremely light volume. Advance/declines were negative. Hopefully the volume will pick up next week. Gold got hammered, off over $5. The dollar rallied. The XAU was off a point and a half. NEM lost around 80 cents and ABX lost about 20 cents, both on light volume. The gold stocks held up better than I expected, considering the move in gold. I put in an order for some NEM September 45 calls, GTC. Perhaps it will get filled with some weakness on tuesday. My ABX calls are now at a loss. I am still believing that the gold stocks will rally before the expiration as they have for the past several months. The merchandise trade report will be out next week and that will be the key for gold in the near term I believe. There are 2 weeks to go in the options and that should be enough time for a rally and profitable positions. I could be wrong as I have been in the past. But my thinking is that this scenario will pan out. GE was down today, I'll have to check the charts on that one. I will short the OEX when it gets to the downtrend line at about 546. Ideally there will be a divergence in the McClellan oscillator when this occurs. It's a long Labor Day beginning. I'll check everything over the weekend and return to the trades on tuesday.

Finally some movement today as the Dow gained over 120 points. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. The volume was light again and that has been the problem with this recent rise in the market. I don't know if it's believable. We are right at some multiweek downtrend lines in all the major indices. But we are approaching them on weak volume. I would like to get short when we get there which could be tomorrow. Employment report tomorrow. That will be key. There was talk today that the number is already known and that is why we had such a good rally today. Who knows? We'll see tomorrow. Gold was down $4. The XAU was down less than a point. ABX and NEM were off slightly. Considering the drop in gold the stocks held up rather well. Again, how the dollar reacts to tomorrows news will be key. GE was up today but not a lot and the volume was light. Important report tomorrow and then a long holiday weekend. Things could get interesting...

Hang around day in the markets and this site is having technical difficulties. More tomorrow.

Dow up 50 points today on a little more volume then late but nothing heavy. Advance/declines almost 2 to 1 positive. The market was weaker most of the day and started to turn around in the last couple of hours. Economic news was weak. Gold was up a little which was encouraging. The XAU was almost up 2 points while NEM and ABX each gained over 50 cents. Volume was light though so I don't read much into it. My ABX calls are showing a profit again. The US dollar was weak and if that keeps up, the calls should work. Looked at GE when it was weaker this morning but did not purchase any calls. Hard to trade the overall market with such light volume but who knows? Something may happen tradewise there this week. Just gonna have to wait for fridays employment data and take it from there I suppose.

Dow down 72 points on extremely light volume. Advance/declines negative. Could be a very slow week, volumewise. Gold was up over 3 bucks. But the XAU, NEM and ABX were all down and fell hard into the close. That is not a good sign. My ABX calls are now losers and if the action going forward is anything like today, they are toast. There are a little less than 3 weeks remaining. I'll hold them here and wait for the employment report on friday. Not a lot of news and not much market interest due to the Republican convention. I suppose in hindsight I should have just let this week pass.

Dow up 20 points with advance/declines over 2 to 1 positive. However as has been the case lately the volume was pathetically weak. Even lighter than it has been. Which, for me, calls this whole rally into question. We are at resistance on the Dow at 10200. I don't see a lot of upside from here without some kind of pullback. Gold was down over $4, to the 402-403 area which is support. It must hold around this level or lower prices are in order. Even with gold down the XAU was up a point. That is bullish in my opinion for the gold shares. ABX was up 30 cents on decent volume but NEM was up a few cents on light volume. I am still holding on to the higher gold price scenario. Perhaps this week was the pullback to the downtrend line we broke through last week. We'll find out with next weeks action. Predictions are for a slow market with not much participation due to the Republican convention in New York. Time will tell. There is the employment report on friday. I'm still thinking about a trade in GE down the road here and I'd like to pick up some NEM calls also. Summer is winding down and things should get more interesting in the weeks ahead.

The site is having difficulties today. I'll make it brief. Dow barely moved, down 8 today. Volume extremely light. Gold was off a dollar, the XAU down around a half, both NEM and ABX down some. Light volume with the exception of ABX. The volume there was better than average and to the downside. I'm not liking that. The calls I own are right where I purchased them. If we keep the lackluster action of late up, the time premium will erode and this will be a losing position. Until tomorrow...

The market moved higher today, the Dow up 83 points. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The volume picked up a little but is still very light. Gold moved up 5 dollars. The XAU was up 2 1/2 points, NEM up over a dollar and ABX tacked on 40 cents. Volume wasn't all that strong though. I think we'll move sideways here for a while and then hopefully resume the uptrend. The ABX calls I bought yesterday are showing a small profit. GE was up a small amount and I am looking to buy some calls but GE isn't really following the overall uptrend here. That makes me wary of this move, plus the fact that the volume is light. Sidelines for now. These seem like the dog days of trading. No volume, not a lot of news, traders on vacation. But you've got to pay attention and you've got to stick with it. You've got to stay motivated and you cannot forget your mission. Timing, focus and desire have to stay true. It will pay off in the long run.

Another nothing day in the stock market. The Dow was up 27 points on light volume. Slightly positive advance/declines. I can't say that there is anything to move the market at this point. I now own some ABX September calls. My order got filled during the morning, unfortunately I now believe I am way early in purchasing these. The indicators aren't fully oversold. It looks like that there could be an inverted head and shoulders pattern on the US dollar here also, daily basis. I probably should have canceled the order earlier. I still think the trade will work but the entry may have been able to be done at a better level. We shall see. Gold itself got hammered today, down over 7 dollars. However the XAU was only off a couple points while NEM lost around 80 cents and ABX dropped about a quarter. Volume did pick up to the downside though, not a good sign. However with gold down so much these issues should have been clobbered, yet they hung in there pretty good. I'm still of the belief that this is a snapback to the downtrend line that was broken. Trading is never easy. End of summer here and there seems to be no interest in the markets. The Republican convention is in New York next week and there is talk of even lighter volume then due to the logistics. Things should pick up after Labor Day. Perhaps I should have had the patience to wait. There are always other trades though...

The Dow was down 37 points on extremely light volume. Advance/declines were negative. A slight pullback here should be expected. I'm still getting a buy signal from the put/call ratio though. As for the 10-day trin, it's overbought. Mixed signals for sure but I think we will work higher in the coming weeks. I'm looking at GE calls as a proxy for the market. Gold was down 2 1/2 today. The XAU was off a couple points. NEM and ABX were both down but not a lot. Volume here was light also on the pullback. I have an order in for some ABX calls. I think gold is going higher. It broke through the recent downtrend line on increased volume. The next expectation is a snapback to the line broken. I believe that is what is happening now. I will be looking to get some NEM calls also. If any trade is going to work, long gold at this point should. There are no guarantees but this set-up seems to be going the way it should for now. I don't want to get too overconfident but I believe this one is legit. We shall see. Beginning of a new option cycle so there is no rush but I don't want to be left behind again either. The overall market, the OEX and GE is a tougher call. Time will tell. Not much data this week. 2 weeks until Labor day. Might be quiet until then, with the employment report due out the friday before.

Dow up another 70 points. Advance/declines almost 3 to 1 positive. The only thing missing was volume, which wasn't anything great. There was volume in gold though as this market has taken off. Without me I might add. The XAU was up 1.80, NEM up 44 cents and gold itself gained over 6 dollars. I will get long on any pullback and I am expecting one because the technicals on a daily basis are blown out to the upside. But again, you never know. It could just go straight up. I'm hoping it doesn't. But with the volume this strong there is no doubt that the move in gold is for real and has legs. I'll look to purchase September and October calls. As for the overall market I'm not as sure. I'm still leaning upside but with not as much conviction until I see some volume. I do still like the strong beginning of September and a weak second half of that month. But it's a guess. Options have expired for August and it's time to move on.

The Dow was down a little over 40 points today. Advance/declines were negative but not bad. Volume was below average again. Oil shot up around a buck fifty. The Leading Indicators were negative for the second month in a row. Gold was up around 2 1/2 but the gold stocks took off. The XAU had its best day in weeks up over 3 points. NEM was up a buck eighty. Volume on all the gold issues was heavy. It is for real, I believe. The NEM options that I sold for a loss a couple weeks ago would have quintupled if I had held on to them. I can only hope that we get a snapback to the downtrend lines that have been broken on most issues. Short-term the gold stocks are overbought but longer term they are not. I am thinking of going out to the October calls on some issues. But I really need to see some pullback. That may not happen. Yes, I'm disappointed but at the same time I do not want to get too discouraged because this could be the start of a multi-week up move. The stock market looks like it wants to go higher also. Some of my indicators point to this. Perhaps the beginning of September will be strong and the second half of the month weak as I have seen in the past. I will look to buy some GE calls for september as a proxy for the overall market. Perhaps some OEX calls if my timing can get untracked. It is painful to be on the sidelines but what can I say? I'll look towards the future and try to do a better job...

Dow up 110 points. Advance/declines more than 3 to 1 positive. Volume nothing special but you can't argue with the price action. Gold was flat but the XAU and NEM were both up again although not a lot. The expiration rise for gold stocks continues this month yet again. Oil was up but it didn't affect the stock market today. The next question will be, is the rally for real or just a bounce? It's had everything but volume so far. It is important to find the answer to this question because it will affect the trading going forward. It appears that we are about to break a weekly downtrend line on the OEX here. Other technicals point to a bottom here. I'll be leaning bullish unless something changes that view. No trades with 2 days before expiration. Looking out to September and October.

Dow up 18 points, volume light. Advance/declines positive. Market was up higher earlier. Lots of data to digest. No inflation on the consumer level and strong numbers housing and manufacturing wise. McClellan oscillator has turned positive. I think as far as the OEX is concerned right now, the risks outweigh the rewards. Gold was up a buck fifty. The XAU opened lower came back and was up a tad at the close. NEM was down a few cents. Although overbought, this market seems like it wants to go higher as it has into the expiration the last 3 months. I will have to wait it out. Could be missing the next upleg there though. Can't chase it here. It won't be easy but the sidelines are probably the best place for me at the moment. Will fight myself not to buy some puts before the leading indicators on thursday. Not much else for today.

I put in an order sunday night for some OEX calls. It did not get filled. The Dow was up about 130 points today. Advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. Volume was monday light. Gold was up another $4. NEM was up over a dollar and the XAU was up almost 2 points and closed on the high. It broke through the downtrend line. And I am left sitting here with no positions in anything. It isn't an enviable position to be in. 4 days until option expiration and the risk factor only goes up from here. I suppose I will have to wait for the XAU to fall back to the line it just broke. There is no guarantee that that will happen. There is a possible short play in the OEX before thursdays report on the leading economic indicators. But I don't know if it's worth the risk. Or if I can time it properly, or if it will even happen. And so it goes. I don't know what to say. It is just a very, very tough game. You have to somehow move on from losses and missed opportunities as best you can. It's difficult for me. The trades are out there. But you've got to really be in tune. You have got to be ahead of the game. I think it can be done if you pay attention and outwork the crowd. But who has that kind of commitment? Winners, that's who. This game isn't for the lazy. It's a pro's game. If you don't approach it as such don't even think you'll be successful. Because you won't. I now have to patiently wait for another opportunity to present itself. It won't be easy...

Checking the charts last night, I see a trade in the OEX is warranted. This will be a short term trade, no more than 3 days beginning monday. Calls will be purchased. The OEX stands at around 520 and I will attempt to buy the 525 calls. There are positive divergences on the McClellan oscillator and the RSI. I think a bounce will be in order but only a short lived one. I'll place an order tomorrow night when I see where the futures are. This is a quick trade for there are only 5 days remaining on the options. If a 100% gain is attained, I should get out. It all sounds good in theory, it always does. It looks like it's worth the risk though.

The Dow was up 10 points today on light volume with slightly positive advance/declines. Oil hit a new all-time high. Gold was up around $5 and the XAU was up over 2 points. NEM was only up around 75 cents and the volume wasn't that great. But it looks like the XAU is about to take out a downtrend line that is weeks in the making. Technicals are overbought there though. Will wait to see what happens next week at this point. No conviction for an OEX trade however it looks like some calls might work here. I had to battle myself all day not to buy something before the weekend. If we get a drop in the price of oil, I can see a decent rally taking place. But it's guesswork with no clear signals. The dollar was weaker on trade numbers. Perhaps the decline in the dollar is ready to begin in earnest again setting up a long gold trade. But I don't know. Will check the charts over the weekend. I would like to take on some type of trade for next week. But sometimes no trade is a good trade. Do I sound confused? Sure and I need to sort things out. Will attempt that this weekend and get my mind back into the trade mentality. It's not something that I can turn on and off. Indecision is a killer and it has me in its grips as you can tell by the postings. I'll do what I can...

Dow down again, this time 123 points. Advance/declines fairly negative and a little pick-up in volume. Closed on the low. I'd like to think a bottom of some sorts is near, we are in an area of support at 520 on the OEX. But I don't really know so no trades there for now. Gold didn't do much today, the dollar was a bit weaker. The XAU was up a tad, NEM was down a tad. Treading water there and I have no clear signal but I'm hoping for a sell-off to the weekly uptrend line for a spot to get long. My analysis at this point on things is wishy-washy probably as a result of the recent losses. I have put that behind me and am trying to move forward. However with no conviction on direction, it's probably best for me to sit it out at this juncture and wait for a decent signal. That is what I am trying to do. There are always opportunities but I don't seem to see any at the moment. Trading is not easy. This much we all know. Controlling oneself is even harder but I'm giving it my best shot.

The market was down big early but came back all day to be down only 6 points at the close. Volume picked up a little and the advance/declines were negative. The SPX and OEX were down more, relative to the Dow. Mixed at best. Gold lost over $4 but NEM held up pretty good. The XAU was down a point and a half. Interesting. No trades for me at this juncture but I'm looking. Perhaps a clear signal will emerge before option expiration next week. Seems like after today the Dow wants to go higher. But it's a crapshoot right now and perhaps the best course of action is inaction.

The Fed raised the funds rate 1/4 point as expected and the market rallied. The Dow was up 130 points with good advance/declines. The volume was average or a little less. The McClellan oscillator signaled a big move last night and it happened. We now have a bullish divergence on that indicator. No trades for me here. GE didn't rally as much as the overall market. Could have been some short covering in the market today. Gold did not do much prior to the Fed announcement but the XAU and NEM were up modestly. After the Fed, gold sold off a couple bucks. The XAU and NEM came well off their highs and look like they are poised to go lower. The dollar didn't do much either. See ya tomorrow...

Tried to rally today but ended up unchanged. Volume was light, advance/declines were slightly negative and the new lows expanded to over 600. Would like to get long here for a bounce but the action today implies lower prices. The Fed meets tomorrow. A 1/4 point increase in fed funds is expected. Gold was up a buck, the XAU was down a little and NEM didn't move much. The dollar was basically unchanged. I suppose you could say the markets were in a holding pattern waiting for tomorrow. I have no clear trades on my horizon after last weeks losses. I am hoping gold makes it back down to the weekly uptrend line to initiate a position there. The OEX is oversold but not looking good on the charts. Guess I'll sit on the sidelines unless some kind of inspiration occurs...

Interesting day. The employment report came out very weak. The dollar tanked and gold soared, up $7. The XAU is up over 2 points and NEM, which I sold the calls yesterday, is up over $2. Bad move. The options I had more than doubled. But I don't have them, I took a loss. The calls I do have on ABX didn't move because ABX is up less than 20 cents. And so it goes. I just dumped the ABX calls for a loss of around 70%. If they aren't going to move up when gold is up $7, when are they going to move? They're not. That was a dumb trade all the way around. I basically screwed up the gold trades. When you screw up, it costs you money. I'm back in the red for the year. Market is closing now. Dow dropped around 150 points. Over 300 points in 2 days. I didn't buy any OEX puts and I lost money in gold even though I was long and it went up. Well, I suppose it can't get any worse. I now have no positions and it's the weekend. 2 weeks left on the August options but right now I'm in a trading funk. I suppose I'll have to battle myself to not do something stupid in the near future. Fed meeting on tuesday, that will be the focus of early next week. Not much else for me to say right now after blowing it. I just didn't have what it takes this time around. Really need to listen to that inner voice of reason more often. Might get back here this weekend but I doubt it...

The market got slammed today. Dow down 163 points. Advance/declines heavily negative with a pick-up in volume. Obviously purchasing OEX puts yesterday would have been prudent. But I was too busy watching gold and losing money. Gold did not move today but the XAU and NEM were sold off. ABX also. Near the close I dumped the NEM calls I had for a loss. At one point these had a 100% gain and I held on for a 30% loss. Foolish. Looking back I suppose a stop order would have been smart but that's something I should have learned by now. Disheartening for certain, especially when I should have been concentrating on the OEX. I still have the ABX calls. I bought them cheap and now they're only worth a nickel. Unless there is a complete turn around tomorrow these will be a 80% to 90% loss. I didn't have a lot of money in them but once again it just doesn't pay to chase a move. The candlestick pattern did not pan out in this case. The employment number will be the focus tomorrow, I have no clue as to what it might be. Oil is hitting record highs and is the excuse being used to explain the downside. I suppose I will wait for the XAU to move back down to its long term weekly trendline at 80 and try some calls again down there. Or perhaps I will forget about it and concentrate on the overall market. Either way, losses are part of the game and I will try not to get down on myself. Nobody can be right all the time but I sure could have traded these positions a lot better than I did...

15 minutes to go and I knew I was in trouble with gold yesterday. Gold was only down a couple bucks today but the XAU and NEM are both down over a buck. The technicals are rolling over. The NEM options are right back where I bought them and the ABX options are showing a loss. Why keep holding them at this point? Why indeed? The only thing they have got going for them is time. At this point the only scenario that will make this work is a low employment number on friday followed by a Fed meeting with no rate increase. Can it happen? Maybe, but I sure don't know. The Dow sold off early and has come all the way back to positive territory. It has the action of a market that wants to go up. I'm laying off the puts today but that doesn't mean that I won't buy some tomorrow. Advance/declines have turned positive. Volume looks like it has picked up a little on the rise. Perhaps a weak employment report would give the markets hope for no rate increase. Again, that's just a guess. The dollar is a little stronger today, however to me it looks like it is topping out here, short term. Advance/declines now back to even. I suppose I'll wait for the employment report. It has been a while since I've had a trade move against me. Somehow, I've got to battle myself into doing the prudent thing. It's tough. There will always be other trades. But it doesn't feel like that when you're in them. Market now moving to flat on the day. XAU near its low of the day. More tomorrow...

The Dow was off around 60 points today. I guess it's not going to wait for me. Advance/declines were negative but not bad for a market down 60. Volume picked up a touch. If we get some gain in the next 2 days I might possibly get short. But it looks to be too late. Gold was up a couple bucks today. However the XAU rallied and sold off hard. It was up a few cents. NEM was actually down a little and ABX was up a tad. I don't like the action. I think I probably should have sold out today. We are up against some resistance in the XAU, the volume was light and it got turned back. We are approaching or are at overbought in the gold stocks. I would like to see the resistance broken on heavy volume but that scenario doesn't look probable at this time. These options do have over 2 weeks left though and that may work in my favor. Trading is a difficult task to undertake. Today is a reminder of that. I don't have a good feel for fridays number but I still think the Fed may do nothing next week. I don't know. Tomorrow is another day but I'm not feeling positive at this point. Perhaps something will happen overnight. Perhaps not...

I purchased some more gold calls today. Barrick Gold, ABX, the August 20's. I put an order in overnight and it got filled. Probably shouldn't have bought them. There was a terror alert on sunday and gold rallied. I didn't think the order would get filled but gold did nothing today and the price of ABX went nowhere so I got them. The action on the XAU wasn't promising either. Opened strong, sold off, came back and sold off again into the close. Not good action considering the news. The NEM calls are still showing a profit but it was off a few cents today. The technicals are looking like they want to roll over and that's not positive. The only plus was that the volume was low. The Dow was up 40 points today. Advance/declines were positive but the volume was low again. We are now overbought. I would like to buy some OEX puts. I think the ideal time would be on wednesday, if it stays up that long. I'll need to check the charts. The employment report is on friday. I do not have a good read on this report like I did on the GDP. I don't know what to expect. The Fed meets in a week and I'd like to say I think there is a chance they will stand pat and not raise rates. The dollar was a little weaker today. As for the market, perhaps today was a function of the beginning of the month money flowing in from the insurance companies and the funds. I'm not sure. It had every reason to sell off and it didn't. That's a positive. However I think the downside will resume here soon. Summation index is turning up, so I don't want to be too sure of myself. And I am already trading the gold which is getting me worried. You have to take chances in the game but you need to be smart about your chances. ABX did have a bullish engulfing pattern on its daily chart and that influenced me as well. We'll see what happens. I'll check the charts and determine if an OEX trade is warranted. Until tomorrow...

Well, GDP did come in lower than forecast. Gold was up $4 but the dollar did not fall, which was interesting. The XAU rallied but not that much, only up a little over a point. NEM climbed 90 cents. My options gained some ground. I almost sold them but decided to wait it out a little longer. The technicals are all still pointing towards higher prices. The Dow gained 10 points, advance/declines were positive. The volume was weak however and I think we are running out of steam here. I will be looking to buy some OEX puts next week for a short term trade. We've got the employment report at the end of next week. That will probably be the catalyst for a move one way or the other. Don't have a good read on that just yet. Might be back here this weekend but it is summertime...

Dow up 12 points today.  Advance/declines over 2 to 1 positive and the volume was good.  Maybe a short term bottom is in.  Tomorrow will tell the story.  Gold was down a couple bucks today.  However the XAU was up over a point.  Leading gold higher tomorrow as it has in the recent past?  NEM was only up 15 cents today which was disappointing.  My options are still showing a profit but I didn't like today's action.  But I was waiting all week for the GDP report and that will come tomorrow.  The dollar was a little higher today.  My ideal scenario is the dollar falling tomorrow and a good gold rally that hopefully pulls along the gold stocks with it.  Who knows?  The opposite could happen and then I would say the dollar weakness has come to an end for the longer term.  It is right at the downtrend line that has been effective for a couple of years.  We'll see what happens.

Volatility has returned.  The Dow was down 80 points earlier and now is up 60 with 20 minutes to go.  Volume is good however the advance/declines are slightly negative.  GE could have been a tip-off.  It was slightly weaker and then started to rally before the overall market did.  I should keep an eye on it.  NEM announced their earnings and they were terrible.  But after a slight sell-off early it actually started to rally as did the XAU.  A stock that rallies on bad news usually is a positive development.  My option position is in the black.  However I notice NEM is selling off from the highs as we near the close.  Gold was only up around a buck and a half today.  I'm waiting for fridays GDP report on this one, as I have mentioned before.  Again though, anything can happen regardless of the number that comes out.  I would suspect tomorrow to be a day of waiting for NEM.  Maybe some slight downside on light volume.  That's my scenario anyway.  Looking back of course I would be much happier if my overnight ticket would have been filled.  I would have twice the size in this trade and for now it looks like it will be profitable.  End of the month almost upon us and that could move things around also.  Just waiting for friday at this point.

I bought some NEM August calls.  I have the 40's.  I placed a couple orders overnight for August and September NEM calls.  When I got up this morning they weren't filled.  The August ones got close but I had put in orders that I didn't think would get filled unless there was a perfect storm.  Gold was down a few dollars.  The US dollar was stronger.  I watched and waited.  Halfway through the session the XAU and NEM started to rise.  I figured with the earnings coming out on NEM tomorrow maybe I should pick some up.  I waited for a pullback.  It never came.  Others must be thinking what I'm thinking.  I decided to just buy some calls.  Somewhat chasing the move, however this move might just be getting started.  Had I been quicker to realize what was happening, I could have saved a few bucks.  Both the XAU and NEM had a one day reversal.  We will see if it's for real.  Looks like it could be a bottom on the daily charts.  I will say the fact that the earnings for NEM come out tomorrow influenced my decision.  That and the market action today and the technical oversold levels of the XAU and NEM.  We'll see what happens.  The overall market has rallied today with the Dow up about 135 points right now.  Advance/declines are positive but not extreme.  Volume is pretty good.  Is this an oversold bounce or the start of something real?  I'm thinking oversold bounce.  Fridays GDP is key I believe, for this gold trade and the markets.   End of the month too.  XAU still rallying here and is up a full point.  10 minutes to go.  We'll see what tomorrow brings...

The Dow closed basically unchanged today.  It was up early, sold off and then came back.  Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative and the volume was pretty good for a monday.  I'm thinking that it has got to get going on the upside sometime this week.  Not necessarily stay there but at least have some positive action pricewise.  But I don't really know.  You never do.  Gold was also unchanged on the day even though the dollar was weaker.  The XAU was down a point and a half.  NEM off about 75 cents.  Crosscurrents.  I'm thinking of putting in a couple of overnight orders for NEM.  I will price them for perfection, meaning only a best case scenario will trigger them.  NEM earnings on wednesday.  It's oversold as is the XAU.  I do want some type of position before fridays GDP.  XAU 2 1/2 points away from the multi-year weekly uptrend line.  It's just about gametime.  Timing on all trades is the most critical component for success.  Yes, you have to get the direction right.  Yes, you have to pick the proper instrument.  Yes, you must define the risk parameters.  But if you don't time it right it will cost you more than any of those things.  A trade will be entered at some time this week.  And when it is entered and at what price are very serious issues that have to be dealt with.  It's not an easy task.  However if done correctly, the action will be well rewarded... 

Sunday night with the S&P futures up a little and so is gold.  No trades in the OEX for now.  I will be buying some gold calls this week if the market cooperates.  As I mentioned before the dollar is on the cusp of breaking a multi-year downtrend line along with the XAU just about to break its weekly uptrend line.  I will be trading as if those lines will continue to hold.  I believe they will.  If they don't then I will simply get out of any trades taken.  I think the GDP report on friday will be weaker then expected and the dollar will head lower.  NEM has earnings out on wednesday.  I will try to let that pass before taking a position.  The options still have 4 weeks left for August.  Who knows, I might even be patient and let a base develop but I doubt it.  I think any rally in the stock market will be short-lived or sold into at this point.  Puts will be the play there as conditions warrant.  It is a most difficult game to play.  Volatility has picked up.  Am I up for the challenge?

More downside today.  Dow off 88 points.  Advance/declines negative.  Summation index still pointing down.  Looks like trouble.  Should see some relief rallies along the way but the path of least resistance is down.  Looks like the market thinks Kerry will be the victor in November.  I think that that's part of it.  Also my theory that the economy is heading down could be correct.  Certainly seasonality is a factor.  Gold was off a few bucks today.  The XAU and NEM got down to their short-term trendlines.  I did not buy calls.  They then proceeded to go below the trendlines and close on their lows.  XAU down around 2 1/2 and NEM off 1 1/2.  The longer term weekly uptrendline for the XAU is at 80.  If and when we get there, I'm buying calls.  NEM has its earnings report on wednesday.  I will try to not let that influence me.  I would like to be long before next fridays GDP report if conditions allow.  I believe that report will be weaker than expected and the dollar should fall.  The dollar was stronger today and is approaching a weekly downtrend line at 90.  If it breaks to the upside, all gold calls should not be bought.  Same if the XAU breaks 80.  So we are at a critical juncture or just about there.  More this weekend...

Volatility has returned.  We ended up down over 100 points yesterday.  The Dow was up 4 points today but was down around 60 at one point and up over 20 at another.  Advance/declines were negative.  The volume has picked up in the last couple of days.  The summation index has rolled over and is heading down.  Usually this means lower prices.  But it was going up through most of the recent decline.  Gotta believe that the market will trend lower though.  Gold was down a couple bucks today.  NEM and the XAU were marginally higher though.  We are practically at the short term uptrend line.  A decision must be made as to the purchase of calls.  Some of the technical indicators are oversold here.  This has been the area to get long in recent months for profits.  How long can it go on?  I don't know.  I suppose I'm willing to try it again.  Today might have been the day.  Still over 4 weeks left on this option cycle.  Would like to see a few days of sideways activity in the gold stocks to form a better base.  But you can't have everything I guess.  Will try to wait until the beginning of next week. 

A quick note with 2 hours to go in the day.  Haven't left for the track yet.  The market rallied early on the Microsoft news of a special dividend.  However the day has turned around and we are now negative.  Advance/declines are solidly negative.  It remains to be seen how we will close today but I think this thing is in trouble.  Can't rally on good news, never a positive sign.  Gold is down $5, the XAU and NEM are weak but not terribly so.  Approaching the uptrendline for NEM soon.  Dollar strong but that's because of Greenspan.  The data coming in is still weak.  Dow flat at the moment.  We'll see how it closes.  Back again tomorrow...

Finally some upside.  Dow was up 55 points, advance/declines were decent and so was the volume.  Big Al Greenspan was talking up the economy before some government panel.  Will it last?  Who knows?  It's still oversold but not as much.  Call buying has increased and if that keeps up I don't think the rally will last long.  Gold was off around 3 and a half bucks.  Nice heads up from yesterdays XAU action.  Both the XAU and  NEM were off fractionally.  Still trying to be patient when it comes to purchasing those NEM calls.  Gotta wait until it gets to the uptrend line, if possible.  It seems like buying comes in whenever this thing sells off though.  And the earnings are in a week.  Dollar was stronger today.  Lots of crosscurrents.  There's no rush but I don't want to miss the boat either.  Toughest game in the world, this trading is.  Internal battles with oneself are ongoing too.  It's possible that no blog posting will appear tomorrow.  I'll be taking one of the rare semi-days off here and heading to opening day at Del Mar.  Will be leaving about 2 hours before the close.  Might get back to post later that evening but I doubt it.  It's summertime...

The Dow was down 45 points today.  Most of that can be attributed to 3M which sold off big after its earnings announcement.  Volume was a little better than usual but nothing spectacular.  Whenever a market goes up or down due to one stock, sometimes it will go in the opposite direction following this action.  We sure need some type of upmove.  Advance declines were slightly positive.  The OEX was actually up a little.  On the sidelines for now.  Gold did not move much, however the XAU was down around a point and a half and NEM was off about 80 cents.  Does that mean gold will be down tomorrow?  Would like to see NEM get to around $40, it's at 41 and change now.  The earnings are due out in a week.  Now do I get long ahead of that or not?  I f it goes down then I probably will.  But if it rises into the earnings announcement I'll lay off.  What more good news could come after that?  So I guess I'll have to be patient and let the stock price dictate the trading outcome.  We all know how hard it is to remain patient.  Let's hope I can sit it out for a while here, meaning until the uptrendline it touched or the beginning of next week.  Wish it was easy but it never is.

Sunday afternoon and hot.  S&P futures up a tad and gold is unchanged.  I'm looking for a rally in the OEX here.  Can't stay oversold forever now, can it?  Don't know how much the rally will be or if it will even happen.  But the odds favor one at this point.  I'm hoping for a pullback in gold and NEM in order to get long again.  Hard to say what will happen there.  Will have to listen to the market.  The racetrack opens for the summer this week, a nice diversion.  With the summer doldrums firmly in place, something is needed to liven things up.  Not a lot of economic reports this week although Greenspan will be giving a couple of speeches.  Looking back on the last trade, the exit could have been done better.  The entry on the July calls was excellent.  The timing could not have been better.  The August calls were chased on the entry.  I would still be holding them if a better entry had been done.  The exits, done at the same time, should have happened when resistance was hit.  It cost me some money waiting around for a breakthrough that never happened.  As always, timing is the key to profits.  I don't anticipate buying anything this week since the premiums will be higher than usual due to the extra time for the August options.  But ya never know...

The market just can't get any traction.  Dow down again, around 25 points.  Advance/declines about even.  Like I said previously, when the breadth starts to deteriorate, I think we will be in major trouble.  But right now we're oversold and I would expect some type of bounce or rally.  It's really a dull, no interest market.  The worst summer doldrums I've seen in a while.  Gold was up a couple bucks today and the dollar hit a 4 month low.  That didn't get the XAU moving, in fact it was down a little.  NEM continues to show good relative strength and was up another 40 cents.  Volume was light again though.  I'd like to see a pullback in NEM here to get long again.  But who knows?  I am concerned about the overall market though.  We really need some buying in here soon.  We now roll to the August options, which have 5 weeks on them.  Premiums will be higher.  Now comes the hard part which is patience.  I'll do my best.  But if a good signal appears, I'll have to act on it.  Might be back this weekend but it is the summer...

About 20 minutes to go and the Dow is down around 20 points. Not a lot of movement considering all the data that came out today. Well the data was mixed and so is the market. Advance/declines are solidly positive here though. I would love to have the guts to buy some OEX calls now. Even though they only have one day left on them. We are medium-term oversold. And the transports are up big today, over 45 points. They sometimes lead the Dow and that may well be the case right now. But the risk is insane. Gold was down around a buck today. The XAU is off fractionally and NEM is right about even. NEM is holding up pretty good here today but the volume is pitiful. The dollar was stronger against the major currencies today and the inflation data was benign. I'll buy some more calls on NEM on a pullback, if that occurs. Results for the previous calls: a 40% gain on the August calls sold yesterday and a little under a 400% gain on the July calls. That's not a typo. And the July calls should have been sold when NEM hit resistance last friday for an even bigger gain. But what can ya do? Option expiration tomorrow, 10 minutes to go here and I'll fight myself not to buy some OEX calls at the close...

Finally got some volatility in the market today. The Dow was down around 35 points. Advance/declines were slightly negative and the volume picked up. Were up around 30 at one point and down around 70 at another. Lots of economic data out tomorrow, including inflation news. Gold was up around 3 dollars and change. The XAU didn't move up that much and NEM gained about 50 cents. I sold my July and August NEM calls near the close. With only 2 days left on the July options I had to bail out. They had a good profit, I'll give the details tomorrow. I figure I can purchase the August calls cheaper within the next 2 weeks. Made a little bit there also. I would have liked to have had the guts to hold on another day because if the resistance is taken out, NEM will go to $44-$45 pretty quickly. But something made me just get out. We'll see what happens tomorrow and I hope I'm not kicking myself in the ass. I don't have any OEX trades in the works but I think the market wants to go higher. However the August options have 5 weeks on them, which means there will be no hurry to do anything. Unless...

Another summer afternoon day in the market. Going nowhere, light volume, no volatility session. Dow up 9 points. Advance/declines slightly positive. It's the doldrums. No interest one way or the other. That might change tomorrow. Intel announced its results after the close and it is down almost a buck in after hours trading. We'll see. Gold got pummeled after the balance of trade number came out a little better then expected. It was down over 6 bucks and the dollar rallied also. Interesting how the gold stocks were down yesterday on no news. Stocks lead the bullion. Even with the sell-off in gold, the XAU was only down around a point and NEM was off around 20 cents. Could the gold stocks be heading higher from here? Of course that would help me out. The volume on the sell-off was light. My thinking is that we've taken a rest from the run-up of last week and now we are ready to go higher once again. That's the feel I get. But there are only 3 days left on the NEM July calls. Resistance is still at $42.5 for NEM. If we get there, I should sell and look for the next opportunity. And it may not even get there. Need to sell out soon here though. Maybe tomorrow. As for the OEX, there is no clear signal so I must stay on the sidelines for now.

Never made it back here over the weekend. Summertime. The Dow was up 25 points today on again light volume. Advance/declines were modestly positive. I wanted to get some calls but am not convinced this slight bounce is for real yet. The volume just isn't there. There are also only 4 days left until expiration so the timing must be exact really. Not that it can't be done but the risk is very high. Gold did not move today, however the XAU was down a point and NEM lost 75 cents. Does that preclude a decline in gold tomorrow? We'll see. I am now in the position of NEM having moved to the point of resistance and stalling. Will it be turned back here for a while? Or will it break through, as I am hoping? I have profits in both the July and August positions at the moment. Not as much as friday though. And there are only 4 days left on the July position. I would like to wait for the retail sales report on wednesday. Probably will. It's expected that NEM would need a rest after last week, just not a permanent sleep. The trade report tomorrow should impact the dollar, which way I don't know. And so it goes. It's certainly not the game for most, as I well know at this point. You are pretty much on your own here. It's not that it gets lonely or anything. But there isn't much input from friends or family. They're generally not traders. They might repeat something about the markets that they heard on the evening news. There won't be any insight, any help or anything worthwhile towards your goal of being a successful trader. You can't discuss things with them because they haven't the faintest idea what you're talking about. You can try but they just don't get it. You're not bubbleboy but you do travel mentally in a different orbit. It's frustrating at times, believe me. But not everyone has the drive and determination to see it through. Not everyone has the guts to buck the crowd and go their own way. I mean who in their right mind would think they could get started out of their living room trading against the best minds and the biggest bank accounts on the planet? But what can I say? I'm on a mission. I know it can be done and equally as important, I know that I can do it. It won't happen overnight and it hasn't. But with patience and discipline, there's a lot of money out there to be had. And if nobody else can understand that, well I knew I was going to have to do it on my own anyway. So yeah, maybe it is kinda solitary at times. I suppose I chose the road less traveled...

Market up today. The Dow gained 40 points. Advance/declines were good but the volume was light. I would like to buy some OEX calls but just can't bring myself to do it. I have even got an intermediate term buy signal on one of my indicators. But it just doesn't seem like the market really wants to go up here. However there is also a chance that an inverse head and shoulders pattern is developing on the OEX. I'm on the sidelines for now. Gold did not move today. However the XAU and NEM sold off early, only to rally back late in the day and both ended positive for the day. They are overbought for sure here. And NEM is just about at resistance at $42.5. If it somehow breaks through that barrier maybe $45 is in the cards. Wishful thinking. It is interesting though, especially when you own the calls. Lots of data coming out next week and earnings too. Plus option expiration. Should be a busy week. And I should be taking some profits. NEM is moving pretty strong. The ideal scenario is to sell the positions sometime next week and then re-buy them back cheaper in a couple weeks. Ahh, if only the markets worked that way. I think by now we know they don't. More this weekend...

Market down again today, Dow off around 70 points. Getting to be like a broken record. I didn't buy any calls but I sure wanted to. Advance/declines were negative and the volume picked up a tad. The McClellan Oscillator hasn't even gone negative in this whole decline. Don't know what that means but when it does go negative, watch out! We are oversold. Usually the market doesn't stay that way. At around 540 on the OEX. Possibly will buy calls in the 535 area. Must have the guts. A week left on the options after today. We'll see. Gold continued higher, up $5. The XAU was only up a point and change though. NEM was strong and up around 90 cents to about $42. Almost to the target of $42.5. Now do I get out at 42.5 or do I push it for more? Really should just get out. I can't expect gold to just continue to go straight up as it has the last couple of days. I expect some kind of pause tomorrow. The volume on NEM has picked up a lot, so I think this move is for real. Hopefully to last for more then a few weeks. I'll wait for $42.5 and take it from there. Resistance comes in soon on the XAU also. A good spot to take a rest for a couple weeks. Hard to say, the market will go where it wants, when it wants. NEM looking good for now though. My thoughts on that one are proving correct so far. As for the OEX? It's a much tougher game to play...

The Dow managed to go up 20 points today. Was up around 45 points and then pulled back. Volume was nothing special and the advance/declines were solidly positive. I'd like to get some calls here and almost bought some today. If we're down tomorrow I just might. Gold rallied strongly, up almost 10 bucks. I guess the lack of sell-off in the gold stocks yesterday was for real. The XAU was up 3 1/2 points and NEM was up 1 3/4. Both my positions are now in the black. Even the poor timing, chased move NEM August calls are now making money. Volume was heavy. We have broken out above $40 on NEM. The next stop is $42.5, where if I have any brain in my head, that will be the target to get out of these trades. That is the idea at this point. We should see resistance there and then I will buy back the August NEM calls at a better price. Sounds good in theory anyway. A couple of earnings announcement tonight but otherwise not much news coming out. I'll look to get some OEX calls tomorrow on weakness. However this is a confusing market that is not rallying even with the good internals. As I said before if the internals start to go negative we could be in for real trouble on the downside. Don't know, just guessing as usual...

Market again weak today with the Dow off 63 points. The advance/declines were moderately weaker and the volume was light. We were down over 80 points during the session. I'd love to take a stab at getting some calls here. Definitely oversold here on a short-term basis and even getting there on a longer-term basis. Might only be a bounce but we are due. Perhaps tomorrow I'll put in an order. Gold had an interesting day. It was off over $5. However the XAU was only down half a point and NEM was actually up a little on heavy volume. Normally I would consider the action to be pretty bullish. But I checked the headlines and it seems over the weekend in Barrons, the CEO of NEM said gold is in a paradigm shift with relation to the US dollar. He sees nothing but good things for NEM and the gold market because of this. Whenever they start mentioning something like this in a major publication, it's usually the kiss of death. New paradigm? Where have I heard that before? Oh yeah, right at the top of the tech boom. Would not be surprised to see NEM trade sideways now, which would kill my options. I need a break through resistance at $40 to see these positions work. Next resistance, which I believe is stronger, comes in around $42.5. Will sell out there if it ever happens. OEX calls tomorrow? We'll see...

Holiday monday. The dollar has risen overseas and hence gold is down a little. Need to see gold rally some here to have my open positions profitable. Short week with not a lot of economic news. Tough call. I expect the volume will be slow also. Overall market is due for at least some upside this week, I think. Longer term charts for both the OEX and XAU look positive at this point. Not much else to say today...

My thoughts on the US economy going forward. I really don't think that the economy will be strong. Consumer debt is very high. But you could always say that I suppose. There are no tax rebates coming up. Those checks everybody got the last couple years are no more. Interest rates were and are at historic lows. Everyone who wanted to refinance already has. Whoever could afford to buy a place most likely has by now. The zero interest new car deals are gone. Again if you wanted a new vehicle you have probably already bought it. Witness the recent slump in car sales. Wages are growing at an anemic rate. So there is no extra money being placed in consumers hands that way. With rates this low the economy only grew at around 4% according to the most recent GDP data. It will not be going up from here. Growth will be tepid at best. I think the next boost will be when the troops finally get out of Iraq. But for now, I don't see much. The current administration has thrown everything it could to get the economy going for the upcoming election. In 4 months the election will be over and then what? Rates are starting to rise and even though it's from historically low levels the perception of higher rates is there. Higher gas prices continue to be a drain on spendable dollars. If there is a terrorist attack on our home soil this summer, more contraction will undoubtedly occur. There is the uncertainty of the election outcome. Earlier I didn't think there was any possible way Bush could lose but now I'm not so sure. Businesses will most likely wait to see who wins before committing to new spending in their respective industries. The only plus for purchases this year is a tax law favoring depreciation that expires at the end of this year. I see some inflation for products. But nothing out of control. A little inflation won't hurt the economy going forward. A larger increase most certainly will. So there you have it. An economy that muddles along with its strongest growth in the rearview mirror.

The Dow was down 50 points today. Employment came in less then expected. The volume was weak ahead of the long weekend. The advance/declines were solidly positive. Interesting. I'm thinking of getting some calls next week perhaps. The weekend will give me a chance to check the dailies, weeklies and monthlies. Gold was up a couple bucks as the dollar was weaker. The XAU was up almost a couple points and NEM was up a point. The options purchased yesterday are showing a small profit and the August calls are starting to come back a bit but are still under water. Timing is everything. That's a lesson that can't be stressed enough. Of course when a trade starts to move your way you start to think that maybe you might know something. Don't be fooled. You don't know anything. The market moves where it does regardless of your trades. The overall market is puzzling right now, with strong internals yet lower prices. Imagine what might be happening if the internals were weak. Mixed signals but I'll check things over the weekend. And give my thought on the economy...

The Dow ended down 100 points. Advance/declines weren't all that bad though. Volume picked up a bit. I've noticed the new lows have dramatically expanded in the last 2 days. No trades here for now but I'm thinking some calls might be in order shortly. Employment data tomorrow and a long weekend to follow. The XAU ended down a point and NEM was off 70 cents. We'll see tomorrow how this trade will play out. Possibly was dumb to pick up some more calls short-term here. The uptrend line must hold or it's a loser. But you gotta take some chances once in a while. And this isn't a huge trade, moneywise. Why would the Dow be so weak here? Do the powers that be know something about tomorrows report? Or could it be something else. I'll give some of my longer term views on the economy over the weekend.

Purchased some July NEM 40 calls a few minutes ago. Not a lot of money in this trade either. We are at the short-term uptrend line and the contract is at its low. Looking for a bounce or if the line doesn't hold, get out. Sounds great in theory doesn't it? Gold was up $3 today and as of now the XAU and NEM are both down a little. Actually NEM is down around 60 cents to the support at $38. This should be a short-term trade with only 2 weeks to go on these things and being a couple bucks out of the money. Perhaps traders will be looking to buy some gold before the long holiday weekend. Or not. I'll return here after the close. Market down triple digits at the moment.

The Fed raised rates a quarter point. Ho-hum. It was widely anticipated. I can't remember when the consensus on such a thing was so universal. The Dow didn't do much, was up 22 points. Gold didn't move much but the XAU was up almost a couple points and NEM gained back what it lost yesterday. My options gained a little. Don't know about this trade. Maybe it will work but I doubt it. I think the OEX has room to move up a little from here but I'm not expecting anything big and I think we will be rangebound for a while. The VIX is very low so I don't see a huge move up at this point. CBOE call/put ratio has been gaining bullishness which isn't a positive. However my own RSI tool shows that we could be getting a little oversold. Mixed bag for sure. The employment report on friday and then everybody out for the long holiday weekend. Summer doldrums? You bet. Not the greatest time to be trying to make money but we shall see. Nobody said it would be easy...

The Dow came back a little today, up 56 points. The volume was average. Advance/declines were about even though. SPX not up as much as the Dow. Waiting on the Fed tomorrow. Even that may not break us out of this market apathy. We'll see. Gold sold off big today, off $8.50. However the XAU was only down a point and a half. NEM was down around 75 cents. It seems the gold stocks move ahead of the price of gold lately. In a small capitalization market such as this, manipulation would be easier to take place. The options I purchased are almost cut in half. NEM is right on a multiweek uptrend line. Perhaps tomorrow will be the key. But this is almost a certain loser, even with over 7 weeks left. It's too far out of the money at this point. The entry was wrong. I am going to have to cut the loss and move on. For me, as always, easier said than done. So we will see what the Fed has to say and how the various markets react.

Interesting day in the overall market today. The power transfer to Iraq took place this morning in a surprise move. The market rallied in the morning with the Dow up over 80 points. Stayed up most of the day but with a couple hours to go, sold off and ended down 15 points. Not a good sign. The volume picked up some for a monday and there has been more volume lately, up or down. Advance/declines slightly negative. Stochastics have rolled over. Doesn't look good near term. Perhaps we are setting up for a rally into July expiration. It's just a guess. Gold was down a couple bucks on the news. However the XAU and NEM got slammed, down 2 1/2 and a buck respectively. My options have now lost a third of there value and this trade looks like a loser. The daily charts have broken down also. I know I said this would be a longer term trade but it isn't looking like that after today. I chased the move and now will pay for it I suppose. Foolish. I will wait for the Fed announcement on wednesday, for that was really the whole premise of this trade. Perhaps I should listen to myself once in a while when it comes to the duration of option trades. These are short term timing vehicles, not multi-month trade products. I really believe that. Perhaps this trade will work but I'm sincerely doubting that right now. It is probably best to take the loss and move on. Not get stuck watching this thing go nowhere while other opportunities possibly await. The mental anguish may take its toll. But I'll hang around until wednesday and take it from there...

S&P futures are up 3 points and gold is up a dollar this sunday. I think this week will be a sign of where we are going in the near term. Once the Fed announcement is out of the way wednesday, the market will have no more excuses. Now I'm not saying that it couldn't end up being a wishy-washy, trading range summer. That's a possibility. But I think this week will provide some insight and direction for the market. The supposed Iraq power turnover is wednesday also. As long as that doesn't turn into a full scale civil war, it should be a positive. We shall see. The gold trade that I have established is a toss-up. Perhaps I have gone out too far in time. The strike price I chose is right at resistance. However if the multiweek trend I envision does occur, this trade will work. And as always I will have my eye on the OEX for profit possibilities. Summer is just beginning and I will try to trade my best. It will require discipline, as always and some market insight on my part. The latter has been sorely lacking as of late.

OK, I was a little early on my summer rally call. Dow down 71 points today. However there was a rebalancing of some indexes at the close which skewed the results. Advance/declines were positive. The Dow dropped around 40 points in the last minute. This will probably be made up first thing monday morning. The volume picked up a little this week so maybe we are ready to break out of the trading range for real this time. Gold, the XAU and NEM didn't move much today. The options I purchased lost a little premium. More this weekend.

The market was down a bit today. The Dow lost 35 points, however the advance/declines were slightly positive. Volume was light as usual. Waiting for the 30th I suppose. No clear signal although it looks like the market wants to go higher. The XAU and NEM sold off a bit from when I was here earlier. Could be a badly timed trade but it's got a lot of time left so we'll see. The options didn't move, pricewise. And so another trade begins. What are the parameters for this one? I'll give it some time. If it gets cut in half I'll dump it and maybe even before then. If we get to resistance at 42.5, I'll see what the price looks like and the amount of time left and take it from there. This could just be a dumb trade. Or it could be that my thoughts are correct and it will work out. I'd like to see something solid with the OEX to trade but I can't just make it happen. The markets go where they go. See ya tomorrow...

Here early today to announce a trade in gold. Gold moved up $8 today. I hope I'm not chasing the move but I am. However I am believing this is a multiweek upmove. The weekly charts are just getting started to the upside. I did something that I don't usually do and bought some August calls. Normally I think that options are a short term trading tool. I really think that that's what they do best. However this move in gold should last a while as long as the dollar stays weak and the geopolitical landscape remains uncertain. And those trends I expect to continue. I didn't put a lot into this trade, only 5 contracts for the NEM 42.5 August calls. NEM is up a buck right now to 39.90 or so. I'm not sure how this will work out, there is a lot of resistance at 42.5 for NEM. Plus it's out of the money with its price based on time and volatility premium. It could be a bad trade, who knows? The next few weeks will tell. I'll be back around closing time with the daily update.

Doldrums over. Let the summer rally begin. Market rallied in the final hour again today with the Dow up 84 points. Volume was better than usual as was yesterday which I noticed after the close. We have broken out of trading range from the last couple of weeks to the upside. New highs in the offing? Time will tell. Gold didn't move much today and neither did the XAU, which was up a tad. NEM was down a touch. I would still like to put on a long gold trade before the Fed announcement. How to trade the rally? I see that GE has already moved up and is in a solid uptrend. I'll have to check the weeklies there. OEX perhaps? There is resistance on a weekly basis around 10 points from here. That will be the key. If we can somehow break through that, it's up, up and away. The options still have alot of time premium in them since we are in the first week post expiration. Also one less day on them with the July 4th holiday. So decisions must be made. But not today and for me probably not this week.

Half hour to go. Dow is up 20 points. Was down 40 earlier today. Not a lot of volume and the internals are even. Gold up around a buck, with the XAU up around a point and NEM up a little too. Another nothing day in the market, really. Possibly getting to a slight oversold reading but not one with any real conviction. And so we drift around aimlessly, in a sea of uncertainty. Waiting for June 30th with the Fed and the turnover of power in Iraq. Now will these events prove to be market movers? Don't know. Earnings are due to start coming out soon. Perhaps that will propel us one way or another. Maybe today is a reversal, being down over 40 points at one point and now reversing to be up. But my feeling is more sideways action for now. I would like to see gold come back so I may initiate a long position. But that may not happen either. It's tough to sit on the sidelines but patience and discipline are sometimes well rewarded. But at this rate it could be a looooong summer...

Market did nothing all day, then dropped 44 points in the last hour. Volume light, advance/declines slightly negative. Gold was down a little as was the XAU and NEM. Kind of a blah monday. Preview of the summer to come? Who knows? Is it tough to stay on the sidelines and wait for a decent set-up? Yes. I guess we could take a look back at the trading so far this year. It is almost the halfway point. And I don't foresee the closeout of any trades before the end of June. I started the year with the blowout losses in the GE trade. This was the trade where my 50 contract order wasn't getting filled at one brokerage so I put in another 50 contract order in at another account I have and was immediately filled. However I did not cancel the order that wasn't getting filled and when I went back to cancel it a minute later, it too was filled. So I had 100 contracts for a position that expired worthless. Oooh, the pain, the pain, as maybe Tatu would have said on Fantasy Island. Sure, I can joke about it now because time has passed but it was torture when it happened. My own fault for being anxious on the trade and it wasn't that good anyway as it turned out. Made a couple of OEX trades in March that didn't work. Was it the aftermath of the horrendous GE trade or just poor trading, I don't know. Finally got it together in April with a couple winning trades followed by another winner in May. Still in negative territory for the year though, however the loss has been more than cut in half. We'll see what the next six months brings. Hopefully I'll make it back to profitability if I can remain focused and not do the usual stupid mistakes. My discipline has been better but that's what blowout losses can do for you. Don't need that lesson again...

Sunday afternoon, Globex S&P futures are up a couple points. Only plan this week will be to get long gold unless a clear signal appears elsewhere. Not a lot happening this week. Fed meeting next week. Summer arrives today and the doldrums are already here.

Dow up about 40 points. Kind of a listless expiration. Gold was up $6. However the XAU was only up around a point and a half. NEM was up 65 cents. My thinking is to get long NEM on a pullback next week. There is no clear signal for the OEX but if one appears I'll act on it. More this weekend.

Another light volume, no movement affair on Wall Street. Dow off around 5 points with a half hour to go. Inflation data came out stronger than anticipated earlier and we sold off. But now we are basically unchanged and going nowhere. It's very rare for this type of non-activity during options expiration week. I don't know what to say. It's also a June expiration so the quarterly stuff goes off the board too. Gold was up $4 ant the XAU and NEM have moved higher again. The NEM July 37.5s have doubled and I probably have missed that trade. They were expensive so I didn't pull the trigger. Plus I was looking for a little more downside. The open interest tripled on these things yesterday, making me believe that this trade will work out. I will move to the July 40s if necessary I guess. I don't like chasing moves though. I don't like missing them either. I suppose I will wait to see if gold gets back to below $380 before I do anything but who knows? And so the dilemma of trading continues. It is such a frustrating game sometimes. Somehow, during times like these, you've just got to stay focused and keep believing in yourself. The markets will do what they do. Patience, discipline and remaining motivated must be kept in the forefront. Opportunities will present themselves if you keep paying attention. It is not easy but it must be done. The rewards will come in the future. You've got to believe that or you're doomed...

A nothing day in the stock market today. Very unusual during options expiration week. Dow, OEX and Nasdaq all flat on light volume. Advance/declines about even. Signals are mixed and only a fool would take a position with only 2 days left and no clear direction. Am I a fool? Have been in the past so you never know. Gold was down $4 but the XAU and NEM rallied from the morning lows and are now positive. I can't figure that out. I'm guessing it's option week related but I don't know. Could be that the smart money is buying now in anticipation of higher gold prices in the near term. Gold is at $384 and I would like to get long if it gets in the $370s. I still want the July NEM 37.5s. They are too expensive right now in my opinion and I would like to get them for under a buck. I don't like it when the stocks and gold diverge because it is hard to tell what is really going on. I'll remain patient if I can. Maybe getting the options next week if all goes well. About to close on a really flat day. Summer doldrums already? Could be...

Greenspan spoke today after the inflation report. He said don't worry about inflation. Basically, that's it. Market rallied good, up over 80 points on the Dow at one point. However we have sold off in the final hour and were up only around 10 points. Now coming back with 15 minutes to go, up about 40. Bonds had their best day in quite a while, up big. Advance/declines at least 3 to 1 positive. Volume looks light again, even with options expiration week. Gold was up $4 with the XAU up a couple points and NEM up a point. I don't want to think that I have missed that trade here. I am hoping the gold market will come back and set up a better double bottom for the July options. But maybe it won't. Time will tell and I will not chase it here. Any other trades on the horizon? Doubtful for this week if I can maintain some discipline. I still think we will rally this week with the OEX approaching 560. But I don't have enough conviction to back that up with cold hard cash. I suppose I'll wait for gold and see what happens...

Interesting day today as we sold off from the opening. Dow off 75 points, OEX down 5. There can be a case made that we closed right on the short term uptrend line. Perhaps with favorable inflation data tomorrow we can hold here. But that remains to be seen. The advance/declines were horrible today with declines ahead 5 to 1. Volume again was light. Never trust mondays is another often used cliche. However when the McClellan oscillator number comes out later today, I'm sure it will be negative, turning the summation index down. This implies lower prices. However sometimes after a move into positive territory for the oscillator, a move down through the zero line is what is known as a buy spike. This is a chance to get long for those who missed out on the first move. Confusing, yes but good to know anyway. Since I have no clear convictions at this time, I'm on the sidelines as far as the OEX is concerned. Gold was down a couple bucks today but the XAU and NEM got pounded, down 3 and over a point respectively. We are getting to the area where a double bottom may form. I am ready to buy July NEM calls. If it holds at the weekly uptrend line on the XAU, the trade will work. If it doesn't then I get right out with a small loss. I hope I'm hearing this, "A small loss". Anyway, the options have a lot of time premium in them, however if this trade is right profits will ensue. XAU is at 80 and change, would like to pull the trigger on this one at 78. Hopefully this week, purchasing the NEM July 37.5's at under a buck. Tomorrows inflation data will be important for the overall market and gold itself, so it should be a pretty interesting day. Wish I had the guts to be long the OEX here but there will be better times to try and be a hero. See you at sunrise...

Sunday afternoon. Checked the longer term gold charts yesterday. Looks like we are getting to oversold territory there as well as the short term. Now if the weekly XAU uptrend line holds, you've got yourself as trade. I'll be looking at July NEM calls as a proxy for gold again. Would like to see NEM get down to around 36 again. I'm not sure but it might take a little while for a base to form this time. And therein lies the usual problem with trading. You just never know for sure. You take your best shot and see what happens. The only predictable thing about it is its unpredictability. However that is the game plan as of now for gold. The OEX is not giving any decent signal one way or the other. I will hopefully stay on the sidelines unless something decent appears. Lots of economic data to be released this week. But we are also heading into summer, when people take vacations, the kids get out of school and the markets are not in the forefront of moneymovers minds as they are at other times during the year. So the sideways action since the beginning of the year could continue along with the light volume. Maybe we will head up to the top of the trading range. Time will tell. See ya tomorrow.

An unexpected day off. And coming rather closely behind Memorial Day weekend. Another welcome break from the action. The S&P futures are off 3 points, the dollar is stronger and gold hasn't moved that much. I can always anticipate what will happen next week but you can never be sure. It doesn't look like there will be a clear signal for the OEX. I am waiting for the XAU to get to the weekly uptrend line and that could happen this week. My prognosis is that when the Fed raises rates at the end of the month it will only be a 1/4 point and the dollar will go lower after that announcement, sending gold higher. I'll look to play NEM again as a proxy for gold. There are inflation numbers coming up this week but they haven't affected the price of gold lately as far as I can tell. We could be entering the summer doldrums period. Although some would claim we have been there for a while. And they may have a valid argument. We are stuck in a trading range with lighter than usual volume. It's been going on for weeks. Which makes the trading tough. If there is no real price movement, they're just aren't any good profit opportunities. I guess you could be an option writer and take some cash. But I'm here to trade and take the writers money. But that is for another day. I'll be taking it easy, checking the headlines and the charts. It will be tough to find a play for next week and the prudent path may be on the sidelines. Patience and discipline are extremely important traits to have sometimes. But it ain't easy...

Kind of a nowhere, light volume, ahead of the extended weekend day. Dow up around 20 points with 20 minutes to go. OEX up about a point. Gold up a little along with the XAU and NEM. I'll be patient there. Option expiration week coming up with some inflation reports. Will short the OEX if it sets up that way or go long if it comes back to the trendline. This also could be one of those rare times where a trade isn't warranted during expiration week. But I'll be looking for something. More this weekend...

Around 20 minutes left, Dow down around 55 points. OEX off 4. I guess we were due for some type of pullback. But how long will it last? There is a short-term uptrend line coming in around 449 on the OEX. I'll get long there if I have the guts. The divergences mentioned yesterday have come to fruition already. No time for the hesitant. Gold, the XAU and NEM got clobbered today. I'm now wondering if the weekly uptrend line will hold, if and when we get there. But I'll play it when it happens. However there could be a shift in the value of the dollar here which seems to be the driver of gold. The dollar is gaining value. As one would expect with the prospect of higher interest rates. At least that's how it used to be. I'll keep an eye on it. But the nearterm play will be getting long the OEX when it reaches the uptrendline. Could happen tomorrow. Long weekend ahead. Advance/declines weak today. Volume nothing special. Still could be considered overbought even with today's action. On a longer term idea if we get a third higher price with a lower McClellan oscillator reading then that would be the ideal spot for a purchase of OEX puts. A 3rd divergence is sometimes the catalyst for an extended move. But you can't say there wasn't any warning for today's action. Dow off now more than 60. Profit taking before the long weekend?

Halfhour to go. Market started lower, midway went higher, now flat. Would like to short the OEX with some puts but will wait. Overbought here but not drastically so. Gold, the XAU and NEM all down. Will try and be patient there and wait for the next month option cycle. We'll see. I have some other commitments after the close and cannot rant on here as usual. Will maybe get short before the weekend if strength lasts that long. We have higher prices and a lower McClellan oscillator. We have declines ahead of advances today. Divergences to be sure. Timing will be key. Will it work? Stay tuned.

A big up day with the Dow tacking on 140 points and the OEX up over 8 points. The OEX has broken its multi-week downtrend line and the Dow is right at that same line along with the S&P 500. Advance/declines were good. The only thing missing was the volume, which was light. That could be a monday factor or it could mean that this OEX breakout is a fakeout. I'm not sure what to think but I'm a believer for now. There just weren't any sellers. Perhaps the expiration gyrations are starting early due to the unexpected market close this friday due to former president Reagans death. I don't know. Gold was up 3 bucks with both the XAU and NEM advancing. I'm still looking for lower prices before entering a trade but I could be missing the boat there as well. Would like to have the guts here to short the overall market and possibly will tomorrow if another light volume rally takes place. It's risky though and a more prudent path would be to stay on the sidelines. Suppose I should have gotten long last week but hindsight is easy. It's foresight that's giving me problems...

S&P futures are off a little bit and gold is up a tad. The dilemma at this point is that there is no clear signal in a sideways market. There are 2 weeks until option expiration. Is the gold correction over? Which way will the Dow move? At this point, I have no answers. I should stay on the sidelines until something clearly appears. That's what I should do. But the markets call like the sirens on a forbidden island. I've somehow got to find a way to remain patient. Even if it means waiting until July to make a trade. If a good signal appears, then I will act. If not, I'll have to wait. It's real money I'm trading with, not some fantasy account. It's hard to remember that sometimes. And so it goes. I suppose if we are weak in the early part of the week I'll look to get some calls. If we rally up to the multi-week downtrend line in the OEX early I'll look to short it there. Gold is a different story. I would like to get long but am not sure if this is the right spot. It could be. But I think I will wait for the stochastic to get down under 20 on a daily basis. Plus a 50% or better pullback from the 3 week rally. That would be a more logical entry point. But ya never know. I was also looking at PFE but that's an iffy proposition also. Trading is hard but having patience is harder. Globex quotes unchanged now. I suppose that trading is a battle with oneself and the markets at the same time. If it was so simple everyone would always win and nobody would ever lose. But we know better than that. It is a sometimes cruel game that pits you against some of the best minds and the most money available. Money moves around and you hope to follow it and take a little for yourself if you can. But make no mistake it is tough, time consuming and treacherous. This game will eat you alive. The markets don't care who you are or where you came from. It's not for everybody. Before you get started, you'd be wise to find out if it's for you...

The market rallied on a strong jobs report again. But the volume was weak and we finished way off the highs at around plus 45 points on the Dow. Were up over 100 at one point. I still think the trend is up but we might pause for a bit. Which would give me a chance to get some calls going into expiration the week after next. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU and NEM were up good, over a point and a half and 90 cents respectively. Still think waiting on those is the best play for now. Will check the charts over the weekend. We are in a rangebound market overall. Patience is required, however, hard to do. There will be some decent opportunities in the next 2 weeks. I hope to find them. But I don't see any explosive moves at this point. Could be an early indication of the summer doldrums. Will get back here this weekend...

10 minutes to go. Dow down around 50 points, OEX down, gold down, XAU down, NEM down. OEX relieving its overbought condition. I still think the trend there is up and will look now to get long when I feel it is appropriate. Early next week possibly, depending on what happens tomorrow. The XAU needs to get back to the weekly uptrend line for a long position to be established. I feel that will happen within the next couple of weeks, hopefully. There was a good sell signal for the OEX here but the options I was looking at were priced too high. I think this pullback is just a breather. I'll have to check where support comes in and look to get long there. I think that idea will work. But nothing is for certain when it comes to the markets. Bias to the upside though, I still believe. Dow now down 60 near the close. Tomorrow beckons...

10 minutes to go. Dow is up 70 points. Continuing to stay overbought. We have just broken a downtrend line. However the volume is light. Advance/declines are solidly positive. There is a more significant downtrend line at around 552 on the OEX, which is around 4 points away on that index. When and if we get there, I'm buying some puts. The short-term indicators are overbought. They have stayed that way long enough. Perhaps fridays employment report will be a catalyst for a sell-off. I don't know. Gold is down $3 and the XAU was weaker earlier but has come back and also bounced off an uptrend line around 3 weeks in the making. NEM broke that same line on its chart yesterday. I'm on the sidelines there but would like to get long. No clear signal yet. My attention will be given to the OEX on the anticipation of getting short at the above mentioned downtrend line. Perhaps we will get there tomorrow. If we just break through it then I'll try to take a small loss. However with this overbought condition, I believe some type of pause or pullback is in order. But with the markets, ya never know. No time to be patient if it gets to the 552 level. Puts, just buy'em. We'll see what tomorrow brings...

Kind of a light volume tuesday after a long weekend. Market was higher earlier, sold off and now is coming back into the close. I don't think the scalp I had in mind would have worked. We are staying overbought on the OEX. If it continues for another couple of days, I will get short before the employment number on friday. Declines are slightly ahead of advances. Dow off 5 points with 15 minutes to go. Gold is interesting. Actual gold price has not moved and the dollar is weaker. XAU and NEM are off pretty good right now, a point and a half and 60 cents respectively. Considering the price of gold hasn't moved, this could be telling for the days to come. Or not. The weekly XAU implies higher prices but the daily charts do not. Will we come all the way back to the weekly uptrend line or not? Should I go out an extra month on the options? How far will we retrace the recent upmove? Too many questions and not enough answers. No trades for now, however if the OEX stays up for a couple days I'll look to get short for a scalp. But the longer-term trend is up and now the Dow is up 20 points. Tough game to play. It was nice to have a little break over the weekend. But now it is back to reality. Successful trading requires effort, self-denial and grim perseverance. We'll see what tomorrow brings...