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Friday, January 24, 2014

The Dow got clobbered today as the most watched index fell 318 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 7 to 1 negative.  We knew it was coming and now it is here.  If we get any rally you can simply buy index puts.  The summation index will be heading lower after todays action.  The bollinger bands converging let you know a major move was about to occur.  Support for the S&P 500 is first at 1700 and then the 50 week moving average at 1675 or so.  That's just my opinion as usual.  I don't own any OEX February puts but I will get some probably next week if the market cooperates.  GE was off 7/8 and the volume remains very heavy.  GE was the precursor to events as we thought it may well be.  It always pays to keep an eye on this particular stock and that is why we do.  Gold held up rather well again today as the futures rose 5 bucks.  The US dollar finished the session little changed.  The gold shares held up pretty good as well.  The XAU only dropped 3/4.  ABX was flat, GG was up 1/8, while NEM shed 1/4.  Volume was once again good for the gold shares.  It was a volatile trading session for the gold shares.  I'm still inclined to purchase some February calls here if I get the chance.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated for not already owning some index puts.  However if the market pans out as I expect, there will still be time to make some profits.  I do expect some kind of snap back attempt next week for the stock indices and that will be the opportunity hopefully to purchase some puts.  If I already owned some at this point it would be simply a matter of holding on until we reach the previously mentioned potential areas of support.  The gold shares have come back to life.  That is the case with any trading vehicle when it is left for dead as these stocks were at the end of last year.  I still think there can be profits had in the February option cycle on the call side.  Perhaps the Fed announcement next week will throw some cold water on the recent rally and give us a chance for purchase.  Plenty of time in the February option cycle as we still have four weeks to go.  The trading will have to be nimble though as the recent volatility does not favor long holding periods.  As usual I'll be going over all the charts this weekend and keeping an eye on how much press todays decline gets.  The ideal scenario would be some kind of relief rally next week and the thought that this downside move is over.  However as always, the markets will go where they want.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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