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Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Heading lower as the Dow fell on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  We are trying to hold the 1770 level on the S&P 500.  I expect that it won't hold.  Pretty oversold here so perhaps the market will hold up short term and give a chance to purchase the OEX February puts.  But if not then that will be another opportunity that was missed.  The Fed announcement came out and the taper continues.  The summation index continues to head lower.  The volume on the declines has been pretty good so you know that this move lower is the real thing.  Liquidation is in progress.  No point in trying to pick the bottom just yet.  GE was off 1/8 or so and the volume was lighter than we have seen there lately.  Pretty oversold here and I'm guessing that we have further to go on the downside as well.  Gold continues to attract capital as the futures rose $18.  The US dollar finished the day little changed again.  The fact that gold rose despite the fact that the Fed is tapering says a lot.  I thought we would get some decline on the announcement which we did but it was short lived.  The XAU rose 2 points.  ABX up 3/4, GG higher by 7/8 and NEM added 1/4.  Volume remains good here.  It looks like I have missed the boat here for the February gold share calls.  NEM is lagging here but I probably won't try the calls there.  ABX or GG are the preferred options to try in my opinion.  Fear is taking over the markets and gold is the safe haven choice for now.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as I have no positions despite the correct hypothesis on the stock market and gold.  There is still a lot of time in the February option cycle.  However when the markets start to head lower, they do so in a hurry.  You really have to be both quick and true to your conviction.  I certainly haven't been quick.  Maybe we can get some bounce off of tomorrows GDP report.  Gold continues to move higher and remains overbought on the short term.  Perhaps I'll just get some gold share calls tomorrow anyway.  The trend is up.  I do not like to chase things but perhaps in this case I should.  The markets are full of uncertainty and gold should continue to benefit from that.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas action tonight and go from there.

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