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Tuesday, January 28, 2014

We got some bounce today as the Dow rose 90 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  Some upside was expected and we should see some more in the next couple of sessions.  The NASDAQ was relatively weaker and that is not bullish.  I'm sticking with my scenario to get some February OEX puts in the next two days.  The summation index is heading lower even after todays numbers.  There is always a chance that the decline is over and my prognosis is wrong.  We'll get the Fed announcement tomorrow and the markets should move off of that.  The stock indices are short term oversold.  GE was up 3/8 on OK volume today.  Just as GE led the way down it began to stabilize yesterday before the overall market.  I do not have any trades in mind for GE at this juncture but will be keeping an eye on it as usual.  Gold fell over $10 on the futures but came back a bit in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was again little changed.  The dollar should move on the Fed tomorrow.  The XAU bounced back 1 1/2.  There still seems to be interest in the gold shares.  I did place an open order in overnight for some February GG calls but it was not filled.  ABX up 1/4, while GG and NEM gained 1/2.  Volume was light though.  I'm still interested in getting in a gold share call trade for the February option cycle.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So far everything is lining up as planned in an attempt to try the February OEX puts.  Additional light volume upside in the next couple of days will seal the deal.  However the stock market rarely cooperates with the best laid plans.  I will try to remain nimble and open minded about the situation.  But if we see a strong rally after the Fed tomorrow, I may just purchase the puts.  The gold shares outperformed gold itself and that is bullish moving forward.  The Fed announcement should move the price of gold as well.  The gold shares have come off of overbought technical levels short term.  Who knows?  Maybe I'll attempt a trade there tomorrow as well.  We'll look for upside follow through in the overseas stock markets overnight.

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