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Thursday, January 23, 2014

We got some movement today as the Dow fell 176 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Global economic worries was the excuse for todays downturn.  Plus some negative earnings reports.  It appears the breakout that we were looking for will be to the downside.  Index puts are in order.  The summation index hasn't turned around yet but when it does the decline will continue in earnest.  Yes I am late in purchasing the puts but there is still probably time to get in on some profits.  Plenty of time left as we have just begun the February option cycle.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume was heavy again.  Maybe a short term bottom for GE here but the target is around $24.  Gold rallied today as the US dollar got clobbered.  The precious metal futures were higher by $25.  We are right at a daily down trend line that has been in effect since late August.  Look for a breakout to the upside.  The XAU rose 2 1/4.  ABX up 1/2,  GG gained 7/8 and NEM added 3/4.  Volume was good.  The technicals here have reversed yesterdays downside rollover.  I'll be looking to get some February gold share calls as soon as possible.  However I may wait until the Fed announcement next week as another taper should drive prices lower short term.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  We are at the lower end of the recent trading range for the major stock indices.  A break lower here will really get things moving down.  I do anticipate that will happen.  The Dow is trying to hold its 50 day moving average.  The small stocks have held up better here.  That is usually bullish but perhaps not this time around.  The TRAN was positive today and hit a new all time high but it has yet to be confirmed by the Dow.  I don't know what is going on there.  I do know that the tone of the stock market has changed.  Puts are advised.  Gold appears to have found some buyers since the start of the new year.  The gold shares have led the way higher and that is bullish moving forward.  I'll be getting some February gold share calls at some point.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the US lower and finish out the week tomorrow.    

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