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Friday, January 10, 2014

We got the employment report today but we still have yet to see some strong movement one way or the other for the stock indices.  The employment report was much weaker than expected.  The Dow finished the session down around 8 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive though.  The small stocks and the overall market was higher.  The summation index continues to the upside.  I looked at the OEX January calls today but did not purchase them.  That would be the short term play here with only a week to go in the January option cycle.  Regardless, longer term I remain cautious.  GE was off 1/4 on average volume.  We're back to the 50 day moving average here and that may provide some support.  Earnings due here in a week.  Gold found a bid today on a weaker US dollar.  The precious metal futures rose $17.  The XAU gained 2 7/8.  ABX up almost 1/2, GG added 3/4 and NEM higher by almost 2/3.  Volume was OK.  GG has broke through the resistance line on the daily charts.  It appears that I've missed the January call trade here as it is too late.  I'll still be looking out to February for the gold share calls on a pullback.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is puzzling to me that we haven't seen the usual beginning of the year rally in stocks.  Perhaps my prognosis of a top being put in place will prove correct.  I do expect some short term rally here though.  Perhaps the positive expiration week bias will be in effect.  The OEX January calls near the money would be the preferred option choice.  Gold had a nice session to the upside and $1280 remains my near term target there.  No mention of gold in the media, so it has the potential to keep moving higher in my opinion.  However the stock market has a strange feel to it so far this year and if we do see a significant decline, the gold shares will probably go along for the ride down.  So we'll have to keep an eye on things and see what happens.  I've already missed a decent trade in GG and I'm not happy about that.  My mind is a bit preoccupied though so I can't beat myself up too much about it.  Maybe I'll try the OEX calls on Monday but today was probably the time to do that.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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