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Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Another session with a mixed picture as the Dow fell 44 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  Some small stock indices hit new highs.  The summation index remains to the upside.  The large cap stock indices are still moving sideways though.  I'm still a believer of a top being put in place.  I am looking at the purchase of February OEX puts in the near future.  GE was off over 1/4 and the volume was good.  We have a bearish crossover here on the weekly MACD.  Support comes in at the 50 week moving average at $24.  Gold fell $10 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU rose 1 1/4 though as the gold shares are outpacing the precious metal.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains to the upside despite lower gold prices.  Volume was good.  If and when we see some pullback here, that will be the time to purchase some February gold share calls.  The tide has turned for the gold shares.  The only caveat will be if we don't see a pullback.  Then it will be too late for this move.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A short trading week and not a lot of economic data to boot.  It could be another time to just be patient.  The bollinger bands on the stock indexes are converging, so a decent sized move one way or the other is coming in the near future.  I'm still leaning towards the downside for the breakout.  However the overall market performance lately seems to be pointing higher.  We'll see.  The gold shares have come to life with a slow grind higher.  We are overbought there on a short term basis to be sure.  However markets can stay overbought when they are in an uptrend.  I'll be keeping an eye on it.  We'll see what transpires in the overseas markets tonight and go from there.    

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