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Friday, January 17, 2014

Once again a mixed bag for the stock market.  The Dow gained 41 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative though.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow via the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ.  We are still in a sideways configuration for the most part.  The breakout will occur in the February option cycle which also carries an extra week in it.  I still think we are about to have some downside for the stock averages.  I will be looking at the February OEX puts for purchase.  GE dropped 2/3 and the volume was extremely heavy.  The street did not like the numbers out from GE today.  This could be a precursor for the overall market going forward.  I believe that it is.  Gold keeps moving higher.  The precious metal futures rose $13 despite a higher US dollar.  That has been the theme lately with both gold and the dollar moving up on the same day.  Could it be a defensive allocation of funds that nobody has picked up on yet?  Maybe.  The XAU gained another 2 1/2.  ABX and NEM were up over 1/2, while GG added 7/8.  Volume was good.  Short term overbought to be sure for the gold shares.  I don't think that it is too late for the February calls here still but we'll need to see some pullback in order to purchase.  The ideal scenario would be for the gold shares to drop with the overall market in the coming weeks.  That may simply be wishful thinking on my part.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks like I'll try the OEX February puts next week if we get some rally.  It is a holiday weekend so there will be plenty of time to decide exactly what to do.  The summation index is still moving higher and it is usually not wise to go against that.  But you must admit that the tone of the market has changed.  We are not simply going up all the time anymore.  I'll be checking the indicators over the next three days.  Gold has grudgingly moved higher since the beginning of the year.  The gold shares have also shown relative strength vs. the overall stock market since then as well.  I do not think that this is widely known yet.  Many are skeptical of gold after the very poor showing last year.  So we'll see where it goes.  I still think that short term trades from the long side are still viable for the gold shares.  I'll be looking at the February calls here over the weekend as well.  Plenty of ideas to ponder for the next trade.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

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