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Thursday, January 30, 2014

Back again to the upside as the market tries to stabilize in this area.  The Dow gained 109 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The medium term technical picture was at a juncture that suggested that we'd see some upside.  How long it lasts is another question.  I think about 1810 on the S&P 500 is the best case scenario if we can even get to there.  That would be a good place to purchase some index puts in my opinion.  We are short term oversold on some of the technical indicators as well.  Europe was mostly positive overnight and the GDP report was viewed as good.  Now is this more than just a bounce and possibly the beginning of another leg up?  That's the question to be answered in the days to come.  The summation index continues lower.  For me, I've got an open order in to buy some February OEX puts.  GE was up about 1/4 and the volume was light.  The daily chart has a 5 wave down type of structure to it with the last wave down yet to be completed.  It looks like that to me but really anything can happen.  Gold got hit today as the US dollar was stronger on the GDP report.  The yellow metal futures lost almost 20 bucks.  The XAU fell 2 points.  ABX off 1/3, GG lost over 1/2 and NEM shed 3/4.  Volume was average.  Am I still considering the February gold share calls?  Yes but I'm not as much in a hurry to buy them.  I'm also considering going out to the April contract.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It would be great to see some more upside tomorrow but today could actually be all we get.  It is possible that the 1770 level in the S&P 500 will hold.  I don't think that it will but I'm wrong a lot of the time anyway.  But I'm right once in while too.  We'll have to see if there is any follow through tomorrow and what the medias take of the situation is.  There are now more bears out there and that isn't a positive for the downside.  A light day tomorrow for economic data.  Even though gold fell today there wasn't much volume.  That is a positive.  The gold shares also have continued to hold up rather well.  An extended rise in the US dollar would be a headwind though.  If the stock market continues to drop it should provide a bid for gold.  I'm still probably going to get some gold share calls in the near future.  We'll close out the week and the first month of 2014 tomorrow. 

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