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Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Another day of mixed results as the Dow fell 40 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive though.  The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were both positive.  The summation index continues higher.  I am still looking at the February OEX puts.  We are going sideways in the S&P and I believe the breakout will be negative.  I am even firmer in my commitment to this idea after looking at the option premiums for the OEX February cycle.  The puts are priced much higher than the respective calls.  The market knows more than we do.  I could be wrong but I'll probably be leaving in an overnight order.  GE was down again, off another 30 cents.  The volume was lighter than it has been but GE is probably telling us something here.  It could be a warning of things to come for the overall market.  That's a guess as usual but it may be correct this time around.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures while the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU dropped 2 1/3.  That is a change from the recent gold vs. gold share relationship.  ABX, GG and NEM all fell around 1/2.  Volume was lighter on the decline and that is a positive.  I'm still considering the GG February calls but will probably wait to purchase.  Something to think about tonight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market seems to be going nowhere at the moment.  We are simply building up to the next sustained move either up or down.  It will be a trade worthy event to be sure.  An extra week in the February option cycle so the premiums are still high.  The market will not wait though so we have to be ready when things get going.  The short term technicals for the stock indexes remain overbought.  Gold is right at its 50 day moving average and the short term technicals have appeared to roll over.  The XAU had its technicals roll over today as well.  Perhaps patience is needed here.  We'll keep an eye on what develops overnight and come up with a strategy for tomorrow.

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