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Monday, January 06, 2014

Everybody should be back to work by now but they're not buying as the Dow fell 45 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Getting short term oversold now for the stock indices.  The small stocks are leading the way down though and that isn't bullish.  I do expect some upside here soon.  We get the Fed minutes on Wednesday but the big mover should be the employment report on Friday.  No idea here what to expect so we'll stick with the technicals for the stock indexes and they are mid-range and pointing down.  Even if we get some rally here, we are over extended and the risk is to the downside.  My humble opinion.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was light.  Heading lower here now is my guess.  The upside move has completed.  Gold was flat on the session after bouncing around.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU was up 1/3 but the resistance is still in place.  ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional gains on lighter volume.  I did place another overnight order for some GG calls but it was not filled.  Only nine days to go in the January option cycle.  I am not sure if I will continue to attempt this trade.  Perhaps going out to February is the way to go.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough.  I'm still waiting for the beginning of the year rally.  It hasn't happened.  Perhaps it isn't coming.  The transports were pretty weak today and they are sometimes the leaders of direction.  The summation index continues to the upside though.  I still think that it is a time to be cautious.  Gold was somewhat volatile today but ended little changed.  That sometimes means a change in direction so perhaps we'll be heading lower there in the near term.  That's a guess as usual.  I'll check the charts later this evening to see if it is still worthwhile to put on the gold share call trade for January.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and go from there.

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