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Tuesday, January 07, 2014

Some upside progress today as the Dow rose 105 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  We were short term oversold and today helps alleviate that condition.  Perhaps we can get some more rally here but I am not looking for anything that is sustainable.  The overall technical conditions remain in an area that is closer to a top than a bottom.  We are in some cases getting extremely overbought which isn't bullish.  I do not want to sound like a broken record but caution here is advised.  GE was flat on the session after opening higher.  No trades here for now.  Gold was off $8 on the futures after a slightly stronger US dollar.  The XAU sold off a bit but came all the way back to almost break even.  ABX and NEM had slight fractional losses, while GG was unchanged.  Volume was light.  These issues also sold off during the day and made back most of the ground they lost.  The price action is bullish.  I again had an order for the January GG calls but we did not make it down to my price.  Running out of time for this trade with only 8 days to go in the January cycle.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we got some nice positive action in stocks today and it would not be a surprise to see some more upside in the coming days.  However that would be a chance to take some of last years profits in my opinion.  We are most likely building some sort of top here in the stock indexes. Taking long positions should be for short term trading only.  Gold fell today.  My near term upside target remains at $1280 unless we break down from here.  A break down is possible since the technicals are overbought in the short term.  However the technicals can sometimes remain overbought as we all know.  I'll have to check things out again tonight for the gold shares to see if a January option trade is viable.   We'll watch the foreign action overnight and await the Fed minutes tomorrow.

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